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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 000169 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF DAS YAMAMOTO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/21/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: OPPOSITION LEADERS EXPRESS FRUSTRATIONS 
TO A/S FRAZER 
 
 
Classified By: Charge Vicki Huddleston for reason 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  Leaders of Ethiopia's principal opposition 
parties told A/S Frazer that the GOE continued to arrest and 
harass their supporters, particularly in the Oromiya region. 
They also demanded a larger voice in Parliament.  Opposition 
representatives asked that the USG apply more leverage on the 
GOE to respect human rights, free detained CUD leaders and 
engage in meaningful political dialogue.  Ethiopia's former 
president cautioned that mid-January unrest suggested that 
people would resort to armed struggle eventually if PM Meles 
did not engage all parties, including the CUD and OLF. 
Participants in the Parliamentary opposition's ongoing 
dialogue with the Prime Minister questioned the latter's 
commitment to making real progress.  Several suggested that 
while PM Meles fully controlled his Tigrayan base, he may 
face constraints from other ethnic parties within the ruling 
coalition.  A/S Frazer said that the USG was focused on 
building democracy, rather than on protecting its security 
interests through support for the current regime.  She agreed 
that external pressure for reform was part of the equation, 
but that progress would ultimately depend on political actors 
like them changing democratic institutions from within. 
(Comment: the next several weeks will offer some good 
indicators as to whether the GOE is prepared to deliver on 
key promises, including a constructive response to an 
international study of Ethiopian Parliamentary procedures.) 
End Summary. 
 
¶2. (SBU) A/S Jendayi Frazer met with leaders from Ethiopia's 
principal opposition parties January 21, including Beyene 
Petros and Merera Gudina of the United Ethiopian Democratic 
Forces (UEDF), Temesgen Zewdie of the Coalition for Unity and 
Democracy's (CUD) Parliamentary caucus and Bulcha Demeksa of 
the Oromo Federalist Democratic Movement (OFDM).  AF Special 
Assistant Kendra Gaither and AF/RSA's Col. Kevin Kenny joined 
the A/S, along with Charge Huddleston, DCM, Pol/Econ 
Counselor and USAID's governance specialist. 
 
More Parliamentary Seats, But a Lesser Voice 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) A/S Frazer told opposition leaders that she was 
encouraged by their strong showing in the 2005 elections, 
which had dramatically increased their strength in 
Parliament.  Strong opposition parties were essential to 
strong democracies, she said.  It was unfortunate that the 
situation in Ethiopia had turned violent; governments bore a 
special responsibility to ensure that politics remained 
peaceful, but the maturity of opposition movements was also a 
key factor in building democracy across Africa.  A/S Frazer 
reiterated that democracy was one of the pillars of the Bush 
Administration's foreign policy.  Independent and effective 
electoral boards played a key role in this process, she added. 
 
¶4. (C) UEDF Chairman Beyene Petros and CUD whip Temesgen 
Zewdie agreed that while opposition numbers in Parliament had 
increased dramatically (note: rising from 12  to 170 out of 
547 total seats), the opposition's voice in Parliament had 
actually decreased.  Beyene recalled that as one of only 12 
opposition MPs in the previous Parliament, he had been 
accorded more opportunity to speak than the opposition is 
now.  He and other participants in the opposition's ongoing 
dialogue with the GOE were trying to amend Parliamentary 
procedures to allow more room for real debate.  "Right now, 
we are only warming our chairs," Beyene said.  Temesgen 
agreed that both UEDF and CUD MPs had taken the politically 
costly step of entering Parliament after assurances from the 
PM that "everything could be discussed," but had since found 
that the GOE was uninterested in serious engagement on their 
agenda.  Former Ethiopian President and current MP Negasso 
Gidada noted that the new Parliament should have held a total 
of 27 sessions so far, but had in fact met only 12 times; the 
Speaker had also refused opposition requests to discuss 
ongoing violence in Oromiya. 
 
Opposition Supporters Still Jailed, Harassed 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Temesgen told the A/S that the GOE continued putting 
CUD supporters and election observers in jail.  Some 
supporters had even had their homes burned down.  Party 
offices had been shut down and CUD leaders remained in 
prison.  There was no free press to speak of, he added.  OFDM 
president Bulcha Demeksa spoke passionately about arrests and 
physical abuse of thousands of OFDM and UEDF/ONC supporters 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00000169  002 OF 003 
 
 
in rural western Oromiya, which he said were "just like 
November riots in Addis, but on a much larger scale."  Those 
detained were being held without access to food or medical 
attention.  The GOE justified the crackdown by claiming that 
those arrested were supporters of the outlawed Oromo 
Liberation Front (OLF), but Bulcha argued that the OLF was 
not even present.  (Note: the OLF has issued at least two 
calls for insurrection.  End note.)  Independent MP Negasso 
Gidada noted that most schools in the region had been closed 
for over two months, and Oromo university students were now 
preparing a nation-wide hunger strike.  Bulcha said that at 
the PM's insistence, he had made several attempts to discuss 
the violence in Oromiya with the Regional President, but to 
no avail.  He hailed the recent news that PM Meles had told 
visiting UK aid official Hillary Benn that the GOE would 
establish and independent commission to look into the 
situation in Oromiya. 
 
¶6. (C) Negasso argued that civil unrest in recent days 
(reftel) was further evidence that the ruling coalition's 
current political strategy was not working.  He said that 
Ethiopia would eventually see a return to armed struggle if 
the ruling coalition did not engage in a broad dialogue with 
other political forces.  Negasso said that the level of 
unrest in Oromiya demonstrated the continuing strength of the 
OLF, contrary to what many had believed previously.  He 
recalled that the PM had promised talks with the OLF without 
pre-conditions, but had not followed through.  Negasso argued 
that popular disappointment with the failed talks was a major 
factor in Oromiya violence. 
 
Stalled Dialogue Should be Broadened and Energized 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶7. (C) Negasso argued that in order to turn around the 
current political dynamic, the EPRDF would have to engage in 
a broad national dialogue that included all major political 
forces (Note: presumably to include both the OLF and detained 
CUD leaders.  End note.)  International community support for 
such talks would also be essential.  Beyene of the UEDF also 
supported this recommendation.  He recalled that a similar 
effort had been initiated in 1995 with support from the 
Carter Center, but Beyene said that the opposition was not 
prepared or unified enough at that time to capitalize on the 
opportunity.  Now the opposition was far better prepared. 
Other opposition reps present agreed on the desirability of 
such an effort. 
 
¶8. (C) The Charge noted that several of those present were 
participating in an ongoing political dialogue with the Prime 
Minister.  She hoped that discussion would lead eventually to 
a broader forum.  Beyene said that the talks were "not 
achieving much."  Bulcha, another participant, remarked that 
the discussions had not progressed beyond haggling over the 
agenda itself despite several meetings.  He remarked that the 
PM appeared to be using the dialogue merely for "propaganda 
purposes." 
 
Opposition Wants More U.S. Pressure on GOE 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶9. (C) All opposition reps pleaded for the USG to "use your 
leverage" with the GOE to insist on greater political space 
for the opposition and respect for human rights.  Merera 
Gudina implied that the U.S. should join others in cutting 
aid to the GOE, while Beyene, also of the UEDF, argued that 
such pressure tactics typically only hardened the position of 
the EPRDF.  Merera, a professor of political science, 
commented that regimes like the Mobotu government in Zaire 
had destroyed their countries with the support of the USG, 
whose only concern had been fight the Cold War in Africa.  He 
said that some would argue that the same phenomenon was now 
occurring in Ethiopia, with the Global War on Terrorism 
replacing the Cold War as justification.  Merera charged that 
what Ethiopia had was a "donors' democracy" in which the GOE 
maintained only the appearance of pluralism in order to 
appease the international community. 
 
¶10. (C)  A/S Frazer replied that it was wrong to conclude the 
USG was "sustaining Meles"; the U.S. could best promote its 
interests in the region not by backing a specific regime, but 
rather by promoting democracy.  She noted that one of the 
pillars of President Bush's foreign policy was that deepening 
democracy was the best way to combat terrorism.  A/S Frazer 
went on to say that the U.S. can't impose democracy.  Even in 
Iraq, the U.S. is not imposing democracy, but  rather ended a 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00000169  003 OF 003 
 
 
regime and is encouraging Iraqis to build their own 
democracy. 
 
Frazer: Change Comes Mostly from Within 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (C) While A/S Frazer acknowledged that a "donors' 
democracy" was unacceptable and the external pressure was 
often important in promoting change, she argued that it was 
ultimately internal political processes that usually drove 
progress.  It was essential that opposition parties push for 
reform from within the political system.  External actors 
could help create conditions to make such political activity 
possible, she added.  She congratulated Bulcha and his party 
for maintaining their commitment to peaceful change even in 
the face of government harassment, noting that in adhering to 
non-violence he "stood with giants." 
 
Meles Constrained by Coalition Partners? 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶12. (C) Frazer asked participants to what degree PM Meles was 
constrained by resistance to democratization from within his 
own party.  Opposition representatives generally agreed that 
Meles enjoyed clear supremacy within his Tigrayan People's 
Liberation Front (TPLF), but both Beyene and Negasso 
maintained that Meles had to deal with demands from other 
actors within the ruling EPRDF coalition.  Beyene pointed to 
the veto that former Information Minister Bereket Simon, a 
key leader in the Amhara Democratic Movement (ADM), had 
exercised on a draft media law in early 2005.  Others 
suggested that the Oromo People's Democratic Organization 
(OPDO) also demanded a free hand in dealing with independent 
Oromo-based parties. 
 
Diaspora: Restrictions Make Hard-liners More Influential 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
¶13. (C) Opposition reps told A/S Frazer that Diaspora leaders 
exercised considerable influence, and had a significant local 
constituency, for two main reasons: 1) because the GOE did 
not provide the resources to support political parties that 
were called for in the Constitution; and 2) because domestic 
political organizations in Ethiopia faced harassment and 
restrictions on their activities.  Beyene, whose UEDF party 
broke with its Diaspora allies over Beyene's decision to 
enter Parliament, indicated that he had raised the issue of 
government funding for opposition parties during his dialogue 
with the EPRDF.  Despite initial encouragement, however, the 
PM had ultimately put off the request, claiming that "my 
party has no taste for it right now." 
 
Comment:  Loyal Opposition Frustrated by Lack of Progress 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶14. (C) Opposition leaders voiced understandable frustration 
that PM Meles has not moved more rapidly to reward those 
political parties who "play by the rules" with more political 
space and an end to harassment.  A/S Frazer pressed Meles on 
those points during their Jan. 20 meeting (reported septel), 
and post will continue to focus on concrete progress on our 
democracy promotion agenda.  The next several weeks will 
offer some good indicators as to whether the GOE is prepared 
to deliver on key promises, including a constructive response 
to an international study of Ethiopian Parliamentary 
procedures.  The degree of follow up on Meles' commitment to 
UK official Hillary Benn to form an independent commission on 
violence in Oromiya will also be an important test. 
HUDDLESTON