VZCZCXRO8614
PP RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHPA
DE RUEHDS #0115/01 0111705
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 111705Z JAN 06
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8626
INFO RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM PRIORITY 0799
RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 2693
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1686
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ADDIS ABABA 000115 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/FO, AF/RSA, AF/E. 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL SU AU
SUBJECT: AU SUMMIT KHARTOUM SCENESETTER 
 
REF: ADDIS ABABA 46 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. 
 
¶1. (SBU)  Summary:  The January 23-24 African Union (AU) 
Summit in Khartoum will focus on the AU's efforts to make the 
organization more relevant for Africa, while retaining 
international credibility.  The Summit will spotlight 
education, social and cultural issues, though the AU 
Commission's modest goal is to prompt member states to adhere 
to previous commitments.  The AU hopes to achieve a common 
African position on HIV/AIDS in advance of the UN Special 
Session on AIDS.  Important decisions to be taken at the 
Summit include the election of a new Assembly Chairman, 
justices for the new African Court of Justice and African 
Court of Human Rights, of ten new members to the Peace and 
Security Council (PSC), and approval of the AU's budget for 
¶2006.  Two key topics which are not guaranteed a resolution 
at the Summit are the African Committee on Human and People's 
Rights' plans to ask AU member states to take action on 
Zimbabwe, and Senegal's request for the AU to pronounce on 
the case of former Chadian President Habre.  The AU 
Commission fears that Sudanese President Bashir will be 
elected Chairman of the Assembly.  Congo-Brazzaville 
President Sassou-Nguesso is the only other candidate vying to 
replace Obasanjo as Chairman of the AU Assembly.  While a 
Bashir chairmanship would negatively impact AU ability to 
serve as a moral authority to address peace and security 
challenges on the continent, AU institutions such as the 
Peace and Security Council would continue to function as they 
have been.  Note:  Summit agendas and Executive Council 
reports were forwarded to AF/RSA.  End summary. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
SEEKING RELEVANCE WHILE IMPROVING CAPACITY 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) The AU Commission is making a conscious effort to 
demonstrate to member states and the international community 
that it is different, in a positive sense, from its defunct 
predecessor organization, the OAU.  In the realm of Peace and 
Security, the AU sees its mission in Darfur (AMIS) as the 
first opportunity to test a policy of "non-indifference" as 
opposed to the OAU's "non-interference."  Ongoing efforts to 
develop five regional brigades under an African Standby Force 
(ASF) with proper doctrine; standard operating procedures; 
command, control, communications and information systems; 
training and evaluation; and logistics support is also 
designed to give the AU tools of proactivity in contrast to 
ad-hoc peace support operations such as AMIS.  The 
Commissioner for Social Affairs, Bience Gawanas, points out 
that the AU's attention to social issues and problems 
directly affecting Africans is another key means of 
differentiating the AU from the OAU. 
 
¶3. (SBU) AU officials highlight the challenge of undertaking 
proactive agendas to prove to member states and partners that 
the AU is a changed organization, while not yet having the 
institutional structures in place to adequately pursue its 
ambitious efforts.  The AU Commission is spearheading a 
process of institutional transformation to improve 
administrative, financial and management support functions, 
and to conclude an MOU with the regional economic communities 
(RECs) on respective roles and responsibilities.  While 
debate on the MOU with the RECs and rationalization of REC 
membership has been postponed to the July 2006 Summit in 
Banjul, AU partners are funding an institutional assessment 
to assist in making the AU Commission more effective and 
capable of receiving flexible funding. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
AU ASSEMBLY CHAIR AND AU CREDIBILITY/LATITUDE OF ACTION 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) The AU Commission remains deeply concerned that 
Sudanese President El-Bashir will be selected to succeed 
President Obasanjo as Chairman of the AU Assembly (See Ref 
A).  The AU Commission fears that member states will not be 
proactive in protecting AU credibility by ensuring Bashir is 
defeated.  Congo-Brazzaville President Sassou-Nguesso is also 
a declared candidate.  Another compromise option would be for 
member states to extend Obasanjo's term -- though the Eastern 
and Central regions maintain that the Chair should rotate. 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00000115  002 OF 004 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) The AU Commission notes that a Bashir Chairmanship 
would in many respects make for a "dead year" for the AU due 
to Bashir's lack of moral authority to address conflict 
situations on the continent.  While a strong and credible 
Assembly Chairman is key to pushing forward proactive agendas 
and mustering international community support, AU organs such 
as the Peace and Security Council should continue to function 
as they have been irrespective of the Chairman's identity. 
Under the PSC Protocol, PSC members work with the Chairperson 
of the Commission (i.e. Konare) to decide on courses of 
action to address conflict situations or other threats to 
continental peace and security.  The Assembly Chairman's 
ability to resist Commission actions in follow-up to a PSC 
decision (such as Obasanjo's "turning off" Konare's plan to 
deploy a special envoy for Togo) remains, but appears to be 
based on personal influence.  Under the rules of procedure of 
the Assembly, the Chairman runs Assembly sessions and, 
in-between sessions, "represents the Union in conformity with 
Constitutive Act objectives and principles."  Lack of 
cooperation between the Chairperson of the Commission and 
Assembly Chairman, though, could hinder AU ability to 
proactively address unconstitutional changes of government 
and other sensitive topics.  Other agendas such as 
institutional transformation and items approved by the 
Assembly at Khartoum should  continue. 
 
-------------------------- 
SPOTLIGHT ON SOCIAL ISSUES 
-------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The Khartoum Summit intends to spotlight education, 
culture, health and other social issues.  According to 
Gawanas, the AU wants to mobilize member states to reaffirm 
and implement previous commitments. The AU also seeks to 
foster member state debate on the links between culture and 
education and develop strategies for education promotion. 
Gawanas said that the AU revised the 1976 cultural charter 
and intends to implement a plan of action on cultural 
industries in Africa.  The AU seeks agreement on a 
continental framework for reproductive health, a nutrition 
strategy, and a common position on HIV/AIDS ahead of the UN 
General Assembly Special Session on AIDS (UNGASS).  Gawanas 
noted that the common position will link with the Abuja 
Summit plan of action on HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis. 
On other health issues, Gawanas said that ministers of animal 
husbandry will report on avian influenza.  According to the 
draft report, the AU proposes to strengthen surveillance of 
the disease, sensitize member states, and arrange for 
provision of emergency vaccine stock and an emergency fund 
for rapid intervention.  AU Commission Chairperson Konare 
plans to urge member states to follow up on polio eradication 
commitments, which will form a priority program for the AU in 
¶2006. 
 
------------------ 
PEACE AND SECURITY 
------------------ 
 
¶7. (SBU)  A foreign-ministers level meeting of the PSC in 
Khartoum will receive the PSC Chair's (Cameroon) report on 
PSC activities in 2005.  African diplomats in Addis have 
speculated that the PSC may discuss Chad-Sudan tensions, 
Ethiopia-Eritrea and Cote d'Ivoire, but Ethiopia's PSC 
representative stressed that no specific agenda has been set. 
 The PSC is scheduled to meet on the future of AMIS on 
January 12 in Addis. 
 
¶8. (SBU) The Khartoum Summit will consider the Draft Common 
African Position o the UN Review Process on the Plan of 
Action on Small Arms and Light Weapons, developed in Windhoek 
in December, 2005.  In addition, Nigeria has proposed 
consideration of AU member state ratification of the 
Pelindaba Treaty, which would establish Africa as a 
nuclear-free zone.  In the Commission's report to the Summit, 
the Chairperson appeals to African countries to ratify the 
treaty, noting that while 49 member states have signed the 
treaty, only twenty have ratified it.  African diplomats 
indicate that post-conflict reconstruction in Sudan will be 
discussed on the margins of the meeting. 
 
----------- 
BUDGET 2006 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00000115  003 OF 004 
 
 
----------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Based on a new system of assessed contributions 
developed under South African leadership at the Abuja Summit, 
five AU member states (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Nigeria and 
South Africa) will provide 75 percent of the AU's core 
budget.  According to African diplomats in Addis Ababa, the 
core budget, which covers AU operational costs, will likely 
be set at the level of 69 million dollars.  The voluntary 
budget should amount to 60 million dollars.  South Africa has 
kicked in 11 million dollars and Ethiopia 100,000 dollars to 
the voluntary budget, which will support programs across the 
four AU pillars:  peace and security (54 percent), regional 
integration (24.5 percent), institutional transformation (15 
percent) and shared vision (6.5 percent).  According to the 
Commission's report for 2005, the AU received approximately 
$36 million dollars of the approximately $60 million dollars 
in assessed contributions in 2005.  With a history of member 
states not offering voluntary contributions, the AU 
Commission will rely on its partners to fill the majority of 
the programmatic budget.  An extraordinary session of the 
Executive Council (Foreign Ministers) will meet in Khartoum 
to decide on the budget, and will also consider a report on 
"alternative sources of financing." 
 
¶10. (SBU) The AU Commission originally requested over 300 
million dollars for 2006.  Member states representatives 
involved in the extensive budgetary discussions in Addis 
Ababa found the AU agenda "too ambitious" and will approve 
only a modest increase to the 2005 operational budget of 63 
million dollars.  North African countries reportedly balked 
at approving too high a budget due to the requirement that 
they pay 15 percent of it. 
 
----------------------- 
ORGANS AND INSTITUTIONS 
----------------------- 
 
¶11. (SBU) According to AU Legal Director Ben Kioko, the AU 
will move ahead to establish the African Court of Justice and 
African Court of Human and Peoples Rights while pursuing 
eventual merger of the two courts in parallel.  Eleven judges 
for each court will be elected at the Summit in Khartoum, but 
the eventual merged court may have a total of 15 judges. 
Kioko noted that the Eastern Region owes the AU a decision on 
the seat of the courts.  Mauritius, Tanzania and Sudan are 
contenders, but Kioko believes Tanzania may win the regional 
vote.  Kioko said that the first meeting of the courts will 
take place in April 2006.  The meeting will decide rules of 
procedure and the relationship between the ACJ and Court of 
Human and Peoples Rights pending the merger. 
 
¶12. (SBU) The Khartoum Summit will elect ten new members to 
the Peace and Security Council (PSC).  Terms are up for 
Cameroon, Congo, Kenya, Sudan, Libya, Lesotho, Mozambique, 
Ghana, Senegal and Togo.  According to Egyptian and Ethiopian 
diplomats in Addis Ababa, the Northern Region is pressing for 
an extra PSC seat.  The Northern Region argues that it only 
temporarily ceded a seat to the Western region (which has 
four seats to the three of the Southern, Central and Eastern 
Regions and two of the Northern Region), while AU officials 
say there is no written record indicating a "temporary" 
arrangement.  Note:  AU Commission Chairperson Konare and the 
Commissioners' terms are up in July 2007.  End note. 
 
¶13. (SBU) According to AU officials and African diplomats, 
differences of opinion on how to proceed with the integration 
of NEPAD into the AU Commission have blocked progress on that 
ultimately inevitable goal.  The AU Summit does plan to 
discuss the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) and the 
completed reports on Ghana and Rwanda. 
 
¶14. (SBU) Summit agenda items proposed by Libya highlight the 
continued debate amongst AU member states on the desired pace 
of integration.  Some member states, such as Ethiopia, favor 
a more measured approach to build up AU Commission capacity 
and AU institutions before going to far with continental 
integration.  Others, such as Libya, advocate  accelerated 
integration and a higher profile for the AU through 
development of an African passport, common currency, and 
posts of African ministers of defense, etc. 
 
------------------------------------------- 
 
ADDIS ABAB 00000115  004 OF 004 
 
 
HUMAN RIGHTS -- THE HABRE CASE AND ZIMBABWE 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶15. (SBU) The AU Commission registered "surprise" at Senegal 
President Wade's referral of the Hissene Habre case to the 
AU.  AU officials comment that the AU is worried that the 
Summit context will over-politicize the Habre case and 
overshadow legal arguments.  AU Commission Chairperson Konare 
reportedly sought Assembly Chairman Obasanjo's input on a 
number of alternatives to considering the former Chadian 
leader's case at the Summit, but the issue remains on the 
Summit agenda.  AU Legal comments that rules of procedure for 
the African Court of Justice and Human and Peoples Rights 
will be key to determining if the court(s) could hear cases 
like Habre's; and questioned whether the UNSC would allow the 
establishment and funding of a court to try Habre. 
 
¶16. (SBU) The AU's specialized body the African Commission on 
Human and Peoples' Rights (ACHPR) issued a declaration in 
Banjul in early December, 2005 "condemning" human rights 
violations taking place in Zimbabwe.  The ACHPR also urged 
the AU to renew the mandate of the AU Envoy to Zimbabwe. 
While the ACHPR plans to raise the Zimbabwe report at the 
Summit, the ACHPR appears to plan to do so in conjunction 
with various other reports for 2005.  It is uncertain that 
the Summit will specifically address Zimbabwe. 
 
--------- 
UN REFORM 
--------- 
 
¶17. (SBU) AU Legal Counsel predicts another extraordinary 
session after the Khartoum summit to tackle the issue of UN 
Reform.  The AU had intended to center discussions around the 
result of a UN vote on an African-sponsored resolution based 
on the "Ezulwini Consensus", but the results of that proposal 
are as yet unknown.  The AU will likely focus on intensifying 
lobbying efforts. 
 
 
 
HUDDLESTON