VZCZCXRO3050
RR RUEHPA
DE RUEHAB #0086/01 0261448
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 261448Z JAN 06
FM AMEMBASSY ABIDJAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0870
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000086 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/2007 
TAGS: PGOV ECON IV
SUBJECT: COTE D'IVOIRE: ONE WEEK LATER 
 
REF: A. ABIDJAN 51 
     ¶B. ABIDJAN 62 
 
Classified By: Econoff KTsai for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY.  One week after protesters and the Young 
Patriots took over the streets of Abidjan, the city has 
ostensibly returned to normal.  President Gbagbo's Ivoirian 
Popular Front (FPI) party has withdrawn its threat to quit 
the government, businesses are open again, and the city 
almost feels as if last week's events never happened. 
However, underneath the surface of back-to-business, last 
week's events did have an impact: it left the peace process 
in disarray; traumatized the residents of Abidjan; reminded 
business people how susceptible their investments are to the 
unstable political environment; and demonstrated to the 
international community, especially the UN, how quickly 
foreigners can become targets.  For the UN and the NGOs in 
Western Cote d'Ivoire, last week's events resulted in serious 
damage to their operations.  As Cote d'Ivoire stumbles 
towards the October deadline for elections, one can expect 
events similar to last week's to recur, resulting in further 
damage to business confidence, to international community 
confidence, and to the peace process.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (C) The pretext for the Young Patriots taking to the 
streets and the FPI pulling out of the peace process was the 
International Working Group's recommendation that the mandate 
of the National Assembly should not be extended.  In reality, 
the events of last week were an operation prepared in advance 
by President Gbagbo to show Prime Minister Banny who is 
running the show in Cote d'Ivoire (ref A).  Indeed, Banny has 
been diminished in both power and stature after last week's 
events.  Not only has Banny been put in his place, but he has 
now also been set up for failure. 
 
¶3.  (C) As Prime Minister, Banny is responsible for the 
disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) process. 
 It will be quite a diplomatic feat if Banny, who himself 
went into hiding for a brief period of time last week, can 
convince the New Forces that they will not be attacked, but 
in fact will be welcomed to join the government, and 
therefore should disarm.  Without DDR, the FPI will continue 
to stall the election process, and may even use the lack of 
DDR as a reason to pull out of the peace process again.  It 
is highly unlikely that the New Forces will disarm anytime 
soon, and the blame will be laid at Banny's feet. 
 
¶4.  (C) On the economic front, businesses had to shut down 
while the streets were barricaded.  We received reports of 
two American companies evacuating their expatriate employees 
to Ghana.  Stores that stayed open, such as the large 
supermarkets owned by Lebanese, had armed guards protecting 
their interests.  When businesses did reopen after four and 
five days, those with perishable items had to dump their 
stock. 
 
¶5.  (C) While we have received no reports of physical damage 
to businesses, the already tenuous investor confidence has 
been shaken once again.  The volatile political situation 
makes it challenging to keep businesses running - from the 
basic ability to open for business to more complicated 
decisions such as determining the most efficient amount of 
stock to minimize losses in the event of forced store 
closings.  Business people are also concerned for their 
personal safety just traveling to work.  The American Chamber 
of Commerce in Cote d'Ivoire has suspended its activities for 
the time being. 
 
¶6.  (C) The most obvious damage has been sustained by the UN 
and humanitarian organizations in the West.  As reported in 
ref B, the Guiglo offices of UNHCR, WFP, OCHA, UNICEF, IOM, 
Save the Children, Caritas, Solidarites, and GTZ were all 
attacked.  On January 24, Abdoulaye Mar Dieye, the UN 
Humanitarian Coordinator, told us that estimates of damage to 
UN facilities in Guiglo were now approximately USD 2.7 
million and expected to increase as more information comes 
in.  The UN is fielding a series of teams to assess the 
security situation in Guiglo and determine whether or not 
they can resume operations in the region.  However, they 
would now do so without the presence of UN military forces 
who left Guiglo after the attacks. 
 
¶7.  (C)  COMMENT.  The barricades are down for now, but the 
Young Patriots and the FPI have seen how easily they can 
paralyze the city.  The events of last week were not the 
first time, and nor will they be the last time people take to 
the streets.  And as these events recur, further diminishing 
the prospects of October elections, 2006 may begin to look 
strikingly similar to 2005: no disarmament, no elections, no 
reunification.  The political parties will continue to blame 
each other and look towards the international community for 
both guidance and scapegoats.  Meanwhile, the international 
 
ABIDJAN 00000086  002 OF 002 
 
 
community will continue its attempts to maintain peace and 
broker a solution that no side seems to want.  In that sense, 
Cote d'Ivoire has returned to business as usual.  END COMMENT. 
Hooks