This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 007113 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM IS ELECTIONS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: A PRE-ELECTIONS PRIMER: PARTY PRIMARIES, POLLS AND 
PRECEDENCE 
 
C O R R E C T E D  C O P Y  (GARBLED TEXT) 
 
¶1.  Summary:  Less than ninety days ahead of Israel's 
general elections, the political landscape the three major 
parties will maneuver through is clear.  December 29 marks 
the passage of the statutory 21 days since publication of 
the presidential order to dissolve the 16th Knesset, a 
formality that effectively ends the possibility that 61 MKs 
could form an alternative government.  Kadima, Labor and 
Likud, the three largest parties are now officially led by 
Ariel Sharon, Amir Peretz, and Binyamin Netanyahu 
respectively.  All three have yet to establish their lists 
for the March 28th elections to the Knesset.  The method for 
doing so varies by party, but the timeframe is taking shape, 
with Likud party primaries scheduled for January 12 and 
Labor primaries on January 17.  PM Sharon is likely to wait 
until February 8, the deadline for submission of party lists 
to the Central Elections Committee.  End Summary. 
 
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KADIMA PLAYS THE FIELD 
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¶2.  As founder of a breakaway faction from Likud, Ariel 
Sharon enjoys the one-time luxury of shaping his Kadima 
party free of the restraints of party primaries.  The 
faction has yet to form its institutions or devise a system 
of internal elections, so PM Sharon and a small group of 
advisors will pick the team as he sees fit.  His base is the 
13 members of Knesset he took from Likud, as many as 5 
members from other factions, former Likud MK Tzachi Hanegbi, 
and former Likud member (not an MK) Shaul Mofaz.  The polls 
are predicting Kadima could capture as many as 39 Knesset 
seats in the elections.  That means Kadima could be the only 
major party that wins sufficient seats to introduce new 
faces into a legislature recently criticized by Knesset 
Speaker Reuvin Rivlin as containing "some members who were 
not worthy of their mandate." 
 
¶3.  Recently returned from Washington, former Shin Bet Chief 
Avi Dichter officially announced December 27 that he would 
join Kadima, a move that many pundits had predicted. 
Another prominent newcomer is Professor Uriel Reichman, a 
founding father of the Shinui party who is considered a 
major asset in light of his key role in advocating a 
constitution for Israel and definition of desired Israeli 
borders with a Palestinian state.  A Kadima campaign staffer 
told us that he "could not say" just when the faction would 
close its list -- a statement which suggests Kadima could be 
campaigning to recruit new members all the way to the 
February 8 deadline for submission of party lists to the 
Central Elections Committee.  As yet, Labor members Peres, 
Itzik and Ramon have not formally resigned from their party 
or joined the Kadima list but the February deadline will 
force them to make their move official. 
(Note:  The Labor MKs who wish to join Kadima face possible 
attempts by Labor itself to have them disqualified from 
running on any party list on the grounds that they have 
split from their faction but did not resign their Knesset 
seats, in accordance with the Basic Law.  End Note.) 
 
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LABOR IGNITES ISRAELI POLITICS -- ONLY TO FEEL THE HEAT 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶4.  More than one veteran pundit views the surprise victory 
of Amir Peretz over Shimon Peres in the Labor leadership 
primary last November as the catalyst which finally ruptured 
Likud and brought Kadima into the political light of day. 
The euphoria in Labor was short-lived, however, and the 
party is now battling major uncertainty as to just how it 
can improve its standings in the next Knesset, given the 
declared intention of three of its senior members, Peres, 
Ramon and Itzik to join Kadima.  Labor prides itself that it 
is the only major party of which all registered members are 
entitled to elect the party list.  That vote is scheduled 
for January 17 amidst dire forecasts by the latest opinion 
polls that Labor will drop from its current 21 seats to a 
mere 17.  Compounding the struggle to maintain a winning 
posture, Labor is also embroiled in internal wrangling over 
precedence among its members.  Amir Peretz's clear 
preference for new names, such as former Shin Bet (ISA) 
Chief Ami Ayalon and the President of Ben-Gurion University, 
Avishay Braverman, is at odds with the expectations of 
Labor's veteran Knesset members who demand precedence.  This 
tension could well produce unexpected results in the January 
primaries. 
 
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LIKUD LICKS ITS WOUNDS AND COMES TO HEEL 
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¶5.  The December 19 single-round victory of former prime 
minister and finance minister Binyamin Netanyahu in the 
Likud leadership primary has given the Likud party some 
bounce in the polls, the latest of which gives Likud 16 or 
17 seats as compared with an earlier December forecast of 
only 12 seats in general elections.  In the aftermath of the 
leadership primary, Netanyahu is making every effort to heal 
his battered party, but its depleted membership may not 
remain compliant and cohesive for long.  To satisfy those in 
the party who are still vulnerable to overtures from Kadima, 
the Likud Central Committee voted December 26 to give FM 
Silvan Shalom the coveted number two slot on the Likud list. 
Netanyahu is also trying to exclude the right-wing fringe 
leader, Moshe Feiglin, who finished third on December 19, in 
an effort to burnish Likud's appeal as a mainstream party. 
Netanyahu reportedly plans to introduce an amendment to the 
Likud Charter aimed at banning candidates with criminal 
records from running in the primaries.  (Feiglin was 
convicted of incitement in 1997 and served prison time.) 
The Likud party primaries, in which some three thousand 
Central Committee members will choose the party list, are 
now scheduled for January 12.  Ahead of them, a Ma'ariv 
poll, conducted among some 400 central committee members, 
produced a party list remarkable only for its lack of new 
faces and devoid of any surprises in regard to precedence. 
 
CRETZ