This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

201436Z Dec 05

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 007016 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2015 
TAGS: PGOV IS ELECTIONS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: NETANYAHU LEADS A WEAK, RIGHT-LEANING LIKUD AS 
SUPPORT FOR KADIMA PROVES RESILIENT 
 
REF: TEL AVIV 6920 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Gene A. Cretz for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary: Newly elected Likud Party Chairman Binyamin 
Netanyahu will likely call for a party decision as to whether 
Likud should quit the government, and may still try to 
recruit 61 MKs to create an alternative government to avoid 
early elections.  Observers assess that the latter has little 
chance of succeeding (reftel), and the former may face 
opposition by Likud ministers who want to keep their seats at 
least until the January 3 Likud Central Committee votes on 
Likud's Knesset list.  Netanyahu, who obtained some 44 
percent of the vote according to unofficial election results 
in a particularly low voter turnout of 44 percent, was 
consistently favored in the polls, although second runner-up 
Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, who garnered 33 percent 
support, had narrowed the gap towards the end of the race. 
Right-wing settler leader Moshe Feiglin received 12 percent 
of the vote, leading some in Labor and Kadima to characterize 
Likud as a right-wing party.  Pollsters note that a greater 
percentage of Feiglin supporters went to the polls. 
Netanyahu has a long road ahead to build up Likud after it 
has been severely weakened by the exodus of some 15 of its 
members to join Prime Minister Sharon's centrist Kadima 
party, which, despite Sharon's December 18 mild stroke, still 
leads in the polls by a wide margin.  End Summary. 
 
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Netanyahu At the Helm 
---------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) Advisor to Likud MK Moshe Kahlon told Poloff December 
20 that the Likud Party faction will meet December 20 and 
will likely discuss whether to propose a party vote on 
quitting the government and whether and how to proceed with 
an initiative to recruit 61 MKs to form an alternative 
government.  Likud MK and former prime minister Netanyahu had 
announced during his campaign that one of his first acts as 
Likud Chairman would be to remove his party from Sharon's 
government in order to separate Likud from Kadima and prepare 
for elections.  The Likud Central Committee would have to 
approve such a move and, if approved, the remaining four 
Likud ministers -- Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, Education 
Minister Limor Livnat, Agricultural Minister Yisrael Katz, 
and Health Minister Danny Naveh -- would then resign.  Sharon 
would then be left with only eight ministers out of an 
original unity government comprised of more than 20 
ministers.  As of December 9, Sharon can appoint new 
ministers from among Knesset members to fill vacated seats 
with only Cabinet approval. 
 
¶3.  (C) Ministry of Justice Knesset Liaison Paz Barnett told 
Poloff December 20 that the Likud ministers will most likely 
prefer to remain in their ministry seats at least until after 
the January 3 Likud Central Committee vote on the Likud 
Knesset list.  Likud ministers would rather run as ministers, 
with the accompanying perks and prestige, than as simple MKs, 
Barnett assessed.  Education Minister Livnat is against 
Likud's immediate resignation from the government, according 
to press reports.  Barnett said that vacating even more 
ministries now would mean more work for Sharon, who already 
is responsible for eight ministries. 
 
¶4.  (C) Embassy contacts in Likud told Poloff during the last 
two weeks that an informal initiative peddled by some Likud 
MKs, including Yuval Steinitz, Reuvin Rivlin, and Michael 
Ratzon, to recruit 61 MKs to form an alternative government 
would become a formal Likud effort after the December 19 
Likud primaries.  Steinitz told Poloff December 19 that the 
initiative will move forward, but Embassy sources have 
provided no evidence that this threat is credible (see 
reftel).  The Likud Party faction will likely strategize on 
this initiative at its December 20 meeting.  The initiative 
would have to succeed by December 29, the date of the 
Knesset's official dissolution. 
 
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Feiglin Showing Taints Likud 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) To compete with Sharon for Israel's center, including 
many current and former Likud supporters, Netanyahu will need 
to associate himself more with Likud's center, represented by 
Silvan Shalom, rather than its right, represented by MK Uzi 
Landau, and settler leader Moshe Feiglin.  Netanyahu has 
reportedly already reached out to Shalom.  After Netanyahu 
was declared victor of the leadership race, Shalom announced 
his commitment to remain in Likud and rebuild the party.  The 
Likud Central Committee is reportedly scheduled to meet 
within a few days and could decide to place Shalom in the 
number two slot on the Knesset list, after Netanyahu, giving 
Shalom a reprieve from having to run in the Likud Central 
Committee Knesset list vote. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
Kadima Still Strong, Despite Sharon's Stroke 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (U) Two polls released December 19 -- taken after 
Sharon's stroke -- show that the Kadima party would still 
draw the most support out of all the parties, winning 39-42 
Knesset seats if elections were held today.  Labor would 
obtain 21-22 seats and Likud would only muster 13 seats. 
Both polls were taken before the Likud leadership results 
were in.  In the Dahaf Polling Institute survey, 91 percent 
responded that Sharon's stroke did not affect their decision 
as to which party to support.  A Teleseker Poll shows that if 
Sharon is prevented from continuing to lead Kadima, support 
for the Kadima party would decrease to 30 seats, but Kadima 
would still be the strongest party. 
 
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