This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TEL AVIV 007008 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2015 
TAGS: PGOV PREF IS ELECTIONS GOI INTERNAL
SUBJECT: SHARON'S HEALTH BECOMES ELECTION ISSUE 
 
REF: TEL AVIV 6920 
 
Classified By: Charges d'Affaires Gene A. Cretz for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary: Prime Minister Sharon's hospitalization 
December 18 for a mild stroke has raised questions of age and 
health in the current pre-election political climate and 
raised differing preliminary views as to what effect Sharon's 
health problems will have on the Kadima party's future. 
Political reactions to Prime Minister Sharon's 
hospitalization differed among political commentators and 
political parties, but all agreed that it is too early to 
tell the extent to which Sharon's health will affect the 
political landscape.  As of December 19, the PM's health has 
stabilized, he would continue treatment to prevent blood 
clots, and could be released from the hospital by Tuesday, 
December 20.  End Summary. 
 
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Wake-up Call for Kadima? 
------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) Political pundits and politicians assessed that it is 
too early to tell how the health problems of 77-year-old 
Sharon will play out in the upcoming elections, but they 
speculated about the effect of Sharon's stroke on public 
support for Kadima.  Supporting the view that the party is 
more than Sharon, Mini Zemach, head of the Dahaf Polling 
Institute, wrote in Yedioth Ahronoth December 19 that, based 
on Dahaf studies, the public has "a great yearning" for a 
center party like Kadima.  She assessed that some 47 percent 
of Kadima supporters intend to vote for Kadima for reasons 
other than Sharon. 
 
¶3.  (C) Kadima MK Majallie Whbee told Poloff emphatically 
December 19 that Kadima "is not a party of one person," but 
is rather composed of "very serious" people, who are 
experienced and have strong personalities.  As examples, he 
mentioned Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, former Shin Bet 
head Avi Dichter, and Justice Minister Tzippi Livni.  On the 
other hand, Likud MK Yuval Steinitz -- a strong supporter of 
Likud leadership contender Binyamin Netanyahu -- predicted to 
Poloff December 19 that because of Sharon's stroke, Kadima 
will lose five-to-ten Knesset seats from its current showing 
in the polls of 35 seats if elections were held today. 
Steinitz asserted that all of Kadima's power and lure is 
vested in Sharon and that the public will now wonder if they 
should support a candidate that will reach 80 years of age 
during his tenure.  Likud MK Gilad Erdan, however, assessed 
to Poloff December 19 that Sharon's health may not have 
impact on the elections.  He added, however, that Sharon may 
need to be more active in Kadima's campaign to demonstrate 
that he is in good health. 
 
¶4.  (C) Labor MK Yuli Tamir -- a close confidante of Labor 
Party leader Amir Peretz -- assessed to Poloff December 19 
that Sharon's stroke would raise the issues of age and health 
of leadership candidates in the upcoming elections.  She said 
that the Israeli public is now much more aware of these 
issues and is concerned about how the stress and demands of 
being prime minister could affect a candidate.  People will 
look at the age of a party's leaders, like Sharon and 
octogenarian Shimon Peres, Tamir said, and "ask if this is 
leadership you can trust for the future."  Going further, 
Tamir asserted that without Sharon as leader, Kadima would 
face a crisis and would "rapidly disappear."  As a result, 
she said, former Kadima supporters would return to their 
original parties.  Tamir asserted that no comparable leaders 
to Sharon exists in Kadima and that "a lot of people won't 
identify with (Ehud) Olmert." 
 
---------------------------------- 
Sharon's Affect on Likud Primaries 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) Likud MK Steinitz also predicted that Sharon's health 
problem will result in more support for Netanyahu in today's 
Likud elections.  Likud voters will realize, Steinitz 
assessed, that given his experience, including as prime 
minister, Netanyahu is best-suited to be prime minister. 
Steinitz also acknowledged that some in Likud may seek to 
take advantage of Sharon's health episode and still work to 
recruit 61 MKs to form an alternative government before the 
Knesset's dissolution December 29 (reftel).  In addition, 
Ha'aretz reported December 19 that senior Likud officials 
assess that Likud voters who supported Sharon will now return 
to Likud out of concern that Kadima's fate is dependent on 
Sharon's health. 
 
-------------------- 
Worst Case Scenarios 
-------------------- 
 
¶6.  (U) In a December 19 radio interview, Justice Minister 
Tzippi Livni asserted that chaos would not ensue in the event 
that Sharon could no longer serve as prime minister, noting 
that Israeli law stipulates that Deputy Prime Minister Ehud 
Olmert would serve as alternate in such a case.  Livni also 
explained that in the worst case scenario that Sharon is 
incapacitated or dies, Kadima's Knesset list would be chosen 
by registered Kadima voters, rather than by Sharon.  (Note: 
According to Israel's Basic Laws, the death of a prime 
minister is treated as if the government has resigned.  The 
president would then have the discretion to ask a member of 
the Knesset to form a new government and he or she must then 
do so within a specified period of time which can be 
extended.  If the prime minister is temporarily unable to 
perform his duties, an acting prime minister serves in his 
place (in this case, Ehud Olmert of Kadima), who is empowered 
to exercise all the powers granted to the prime minister for 
100 days.  If, after 100 days, the prime minister does not 
resume his duties, he is deemed to be permanently unable to 
exercise his office.  In this case, the government is deemed 
to have resigned on the 101st day, and the president then 
begins the process of forming a new government.  If no MK can 
form a new government within the stipulated timeframe, 
elections would be held.  End Note.) 
 
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