This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SAN SALVADOR 003505 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ES ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: EL SALVADOR: THREE MONTHS FROM ELECTION, ARENA'S 
LEAD STILL SOLID 
 
REF: SAN SALVADOR 2507 
 
¶1. (SBU)  Leading daily La Prensa Grafica publicized a 
CID-Gallup poll taken November 30-December 5 that involved 
1,212 interviews nationwide.  President Saca's approval 
rating remained at 72 percent overall, tying his rating of 
August, and scarcely lower than the 74 percent approval 
recorded at the end of the first trimester of his 
administration.  Respondents characterized the 
administration's three most significant achievements as its 
assistance to the poor/rural population, highway 
construction, and the formation of the FOSALUD program 
whereby public health clinics are funded via increased taxes 
on alcohol, tobacco, and firearms.  The three areas 
identified for improvement included the failure of the "Firm 
Hand" policy to combat crime, unfulfilled campaign promises, 
and failure to end dollarization. 
 
¶2. (SBU)  Some 56 percent of those polled viewed President 
Saca as "rather" or "very" sincere and truthful; this rating 
has stayed consistent throughout the administration 
(considering the margin of error of 2.8 percent). 
Approximately 33 percent of respondents indicated an 
intention to vote for the Nationalist Republican Alliance 
(ARENA), with the Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front 
(FMLN) mustering only 17 percent in intention to vote; some 
40 percent responded that they either did not intend to vote, 
or had not yet decided which party they favored.  Some 55 
percent of respondents stated they intended to vote in March. 
 
¶3. (SBU)  FMLN hardliner leader and failed presidential 
candidate Schafik Handal continued to be one of the most 
divisive figures in the poll, with 50 percent of the 
population disproving of his performance, while 16 percent 
approve. 
 
¶4. (SBU)  COMMENT:  Saca's personal charisma and media savvy 
are responsible for his party's high approval ratings, and 
the President's "coattails" may offer ARENA candidates a ride 
to victory in March.  San Salvador city hall (which ARENA 
lost to the FMLN in 1997) is an election of great interest, 
and there is widespread speculation that ARENA may increase 
its Legislative Assembly delegation from its present 29 
seats.  Saca's popularity is largely based on his optimistic 
rhetoric about the future; if ARENA takes back San Salvador 
city hall and gains greater power in the Assembly, it will 
need to deliver results soon on reducing crime and improving 
the economy, lest its own success at the polls backfire as 
citizens become increasingly disillusioned in the face of the 
nation's pressing problems.  END COMMENT. 
Barclay