This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L  MANAMA 001889 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2015 
TAGS: PREL MARR BA IZ IR BILAT OFFICIALS CTR REGION
SUBJECT: GENERAL ABIZAID DISCUSSES IRAQ, IRAN WITH CROWN 
PRINCE, DEFENSE MINISTER 
 
Classified by Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d). 
 
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Summary 
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¶1.  (C) Centcom Commander General Abizaid December 21 met 
separately with Crown Prince Salman and Defense Minister 
Shaikh Khalifa and discussed the situation in Iraq, Iranian 
influence in Iraq, Al Qaida, Afghanistan, and the bilateral 
military relationship.  Regarding Iraq, both the CP and 
DefMin expressed concerns about Abdul Aziz Al Hakim becoming 
prime minister and instituting a pro-Iran "theocracy." 
However, the GOB supports the Iraqi government and the 
political process and will take part in a February Arab 
League meeting in Baghdad.  The CP emphasized Arabs' worries 
that the U.S. and Iran will strike a "grand bargain" that 
would allow for international inspection of Iran's nuclear 
program in exchange for Iranian freedom of movement in Iraq. 
Abizaid assured him that so long as Iran poses a threat to 
our friends, we would not work with Iran in this way.  The CP 
noted that the Al Qaida attack in Jordan had been a bad move, 
turning Arabs further away from the terror organization.  The 
CP said the U.S.-Bahrain military relationship was working 
very well, with close coordination on force protection and 
counter-terrorism issues.  The CP raised the issue of the 
return of Navy dependents. End Summary. 
 
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Concern About Al Hakim as Prime Minister 
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¶2.  (C) In separate meetings December 21, Centcom Commander 
General Abizaid discussed Iraq, Iran, Al Qaida, Afghanistan, 
and the U.S.-Bahrain military relationship with Crown Prince 
Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa and Defense Minister General 
Shaikh Khalifa bin Ahmed Al Khalifa.  In response to 
Abizaid's briefing on the elections in Iraq, the Crown Prince 
said that the main concern of Iraq's Sunnis is that they not 
be ruled by a Shia theocracy.  The prospect of Abdul Aziz Al 
Hakim becoming prime minister is not comforting.  Shaikh 
Khalifa echoed this sentiment, saying that Iraqis who are 
pro-Iran should not be in power because they would have 
loyalty to a religious leader rather than to the political 
system.  Shaikh Khalifa offered that Al Hakim is the 
politician most likely to be named prime minister, followed 
by current PM Ibrahim Al Jaafari and former PM Iyad Allawi. 
Abizaid said that many Iraqi Shia look to Iran for help, but 
they are Arabs first.  He suggested that current Vice 
President Adel Abdul Mahdi has a good chance of becoming 
prime minister.  The CP emphasized that the GOB supports the 
Iraqi government and has participated in conferences in Cairo 
and Jeddah backing the political process.  Bahrain will take 
part in an Arab League meeting in Baghdad in February. 
 
¶3.  (C) The CP commented that he had heard reports of Iranian 
infiltration of the Iraqi Interior Ministry.  Abizaid said 
this was true in the south; the Ministry of Interior recruits 
its personnel locally, and the staff bring their local issues 
with them into the security forces.  The army has a different 
recruitment system and is in better shape.  The U.S. will 
focus on improving the police forces during 2006. 
 
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Worries About U.S.-Iran "Grand Bargain" 
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¶4.  (C) The Crown Prince said that many Bahrainis and others 
in the region are concerned that the U.S. will negotiate a 
grand bargain with Iran that would allow for inspection of 
Iran's nuclear program in exchange for Iranian freedom of 
movement in Iraq.  The Arabs are concerned they could be the 
losers in such a deal.  Abizaid replied that Iran will not be 
permitted to play a devious role in Iraq.  It is not like the 
old days, and the Iranians know there are limits to the games 
they can play.  Speaking as a military man, Abizaid said, so 
long as Iran poses a threat to our friends, we would not work 
with Iran in this way. 
 
¶5.  (C) Crown Prince Salman said that both Sunnis and Shias 
are obliged to give alms equal to 20 percent of their annual 
profit to a religious leader.  It would be interesting to 
track the flows of alms in Iraq to understand who controls 
the funds and who benefits.  Usually clerics use the money to 
build local networks by helping people with daily expenses - 
for example, for new appliances and tuition.  Abizaid said he 
understood this practice occurs but he has not heard that 
Sistani uses alms in such a political way.  Sistani plays a 
helpful role in stabilizing the country; he is not being 
pulled by the Iranians and he generally does not interfere in 
 
 
politics. 
 
¶6.  (C) Turning to the domestic situation in Iran, the CP 
said that new President Ahmadi-Nejad is "a loose cannon." 
Some say he is frustrating the senior levels of the Iranian 
system and is harming the vested interests of members of the 
establishment, such as Rafsanjani.  Ahmadi-Nejad sees himself 
as a reformer, but he is inexperienced, overconfident, and 
arrogant.  Abizaid commented that Ahmadi-Nejad could misread 
the situation and make a serious miscalculation.  The good 
news is that U.S. military power in the region is sufficient 
to deter Iran. 
 
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Al Qaida Support Down 
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¶7.  (C) The Crown Prince said that Al Qaida operations come 
and go in waves.  The Jordan attack was a bad move, turning 
more Arabs against the terror group.  Al Qaida thought it 
would have easy victories, but this did not happen.  It 
thought it could sow instability in Saudi Arabia, but this 
did not happen.  The "recruiting drive" that started on 9/11 
has now ended.  Abizaid stated that the organization remains 
very dangerous, but on a tactical level only.  It does not 
have the ability to take a country, like it did before. 
Because of Zarqawi, its ideological appeal is down.  The CP 
said that if Al Qaida renounced violence, it would look like 
many other Islamist parties in the region.  He worries about 
existing Islamist parties tilting toward violence. 
 
¶8.  (C) Abizaid praised the performance of the Bahraini 
special forces unit that was deployed to Afghanistan.  The 
Crown Prince said he was proud of them.  He noted there had 
been a spike in violence in the south during the past year 
and wondered if the Taliban were planning a spring offensive. 
 The Defense Minister commented that President Karzai is a 
strong leader and is doing well.  Abizaid said President 
Musharraf was doing a good job going after Al Qaida on 
Pakistani territory but he was not clamping down on the 
Taliban hiding inside Pakistan.  Pakistan's intelligence 
services could be more active in this area. 
 
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Strong Bilateral Military Relationship 
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¶9.  (C) In response to Abizaid's question, the Crown Prince 
said that the U.S.-Bahrain military relationship is going 
very well.  Bahrain is working closely with the Navy base on 
any force protection and counter-terrorism issues.  The Crown 
Prince raised the issue of the return of U.S. Navy depedents. 
 Gen. Abizaid said that the issue is being looked at. 
 
MONROE