This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

191229Z Dec 05

C O N F I D E N T I A L  MANAMA 001860 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2015 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM BA OFFICIALS POL REFORM
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH LEADING SHIA OPPOSITION 
LEADER SHAIKH ALI SALMAN 
 
 
Classified By: CDA Susan L. Ziadeh.  Reason: 1.4 (b)(d) 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (C) In a December 14 meeting with the Ambassador, Al-Wifaq 
President Shaikh Ali Salman stated that support within 
Al-Wifaq to end its boycott and participate in the 2006 
parliamentary elections was strong, and that he expected 
Al-Wifaq to win a maximum of 15 out of 40 seats in the 
Council of Representatives.  Despite Al-Wifaq's apparent 
decision to compete (final decision will be made in January), 
Shaikh Ali made it clear that Al-Wifaq remains mistrustful of 
the government's intentions and frustrated over lack of 
movement on key concerns such as electoral constituencies 
that favor Sunni over Shia.  He denied that Iran had any 
political influence over Al-Wifaq, maintaining that ties were 
limited to religious connections.  He praised Bahrain for its 
tolerance towards all religions, and said Al-Wifaq endorsed 
Bahrain's strong relations with the U.S.  He expressed 
concern over how to deal with Shia activists, who have broken 
from Al-Wifaq over its decision to register as a political 
society, but stated that they have a genuine concern 
regarding unemployment.  He acknowledged, at the same time, 
that he did not know much about the Crown Prince's labor 
reform proposals, which are focused on the very problem of 
unemployment that so concerns Shia. 
 
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FIRST AMBASSADOR MEETING SINCE ELECTION BOYCOTT DECISION 
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¶2. (C) The Ambassador met for 90 minutes December 14 with 
Al-Wifaq National Islamic Society President Shaikh Ali 
Salman.  This meeting marked the first time that a U.S. 
Ambassador had met with the head of the leading opposition 
political society since Al-Wifaq decided to boycott the 2002 
parliamentary elections.  Although the meeting, which was 
brokered by leading Shia businessman and Al-Wifaq member 
Faisal Jawad, had been planned for some time, it was 
coincidentally held on the day that the press reported that 
Minister of Justice Al-Sitri had formally approved Al-Wifaq's 
application to be registered as a political society.  With 
this approval, it is widely expected that Al-Wifaq will 
announce in January it decision to participate in the 2006 
parliamentary elections.  The head of Al-Wifaq's public 
relations directorate, Shaikh Hussain Aldaihi, and Faisal 
Jawad also attended the meeting. 
 
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STRONG SUPPORT FOR PARTICIPATION IN ELECTIONS 
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¶3. (C) The Ambassador opened the discussion by congratulating 
Shaikh Ali on the formal registration of Al-Wifaq, and stated 
that it has always been the strong position of the United 
States that political societies like Al-Wifaq should 
participate in the election process.  Shaikh Ali, observing 
that formal Ministry of Justice approval had dragged on for 
weeks, said he was pleased that Al-Wifaq was finally 
registered.  (Note: the approval process had been delayed as 
the Ministry of Justice and Al-Wifaq negotiated over 
technical points in the Al-Wifaq application.  The apparent 
delay in gaining final approval had generated concern among 
some that Al-Wifaq, having made the decision to register, was 
being left in legal limbo.  The official announcement of 
registration should alleviae those concerns.  End note.) 
 
¶4. (C) Noting tha the proposal to register as a political 
societyhad received strong support when the issue was vote 
on earlier in the fall, the Ambassador asked ifhe had a 
similar level of support on the questio of actual 
participation in the parliamentary elctions.  Shaikh Ali 
stated that support for regitration had been around 88 
percent, and that he epected similar support for 
participation in the elections.  He added that it would make 
things easier if the government proceeded to set dates for 
both the municipal elections (expected in May) and the 
parliamentary elections (expected in October).  He also noted 
recurring rumors that the King plans to postpone the 
parliamentary elections for two years.  The Ambassador stated 
that he had been reassured at the highest levels that the 
elections would proceed as planned in 2006. 
 
 
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BUT DISTRUST OF GOVERNMENT REMAINS HIGH 
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¶5. (C) Despite Al-Wifaq's apparent plans to contest the 2006 
parliamentary elections, Shaikh Ali said that there remains 
great distrust in Al-Wifaq and among Shia more generally 
about the intentions of the government.  He covered much 
familiar ground, complaining about the King's decision in the 
new constitution to install an appointed Shura of equal size 
and slightly more power to the elected Council of 
Representatives.  He repeatedly raised his frustration on the 
issue of constituencies and the way boundaries were drawn up 
to favor Sunnis and underrepresent Shia.  He asked why the 
King was so quick to bring in Sunni Arabs from neighboring 
countries and give them citizenship.  He noted that certain 
Shia who were supposedly pardoned by the King continue to 
have trouble traveling to certain neighboring countries like 
Kuwait, which say they have been asked by the Government of 
Bahrain not to let them in. (Note: the government has stated 
that it has no ban on travel to other countries, and it is 
not clear what is behind this issue.)  He acknowledged that 
the Ministry of Interior has made a start in employing Shia, 
but that it is too soon to tell how successful or meaningful 
this will be. 
 
¶6. (C) Although it appears that Al-Wifaq will participate in 
the 2006 parliamentary elections without gaining any prior 
concessions from the King (as it had long demanded), Shaikh 
Ali said that he still hopes for a gesture from the King.  He 
added that we would welcome dialogue with the King.  (Note: 
although there had been a dialogue between boycotting 
societies and a government committee, that dialogue was 
broken off by the government more than a year ago.  End note.) 
 
¶7. (C) Although he felt strongly that the electoral 
constituencies, as currently drawn, would negatively affect 
Al-Wifaq's showing at the polls, Shaikh Ali expected Al-Wifaq 
to win a maximum of 15 seats in next year's parliamentary 
elections, out of a total of 40 seats in the Council of 
Representatives.  This would no doubt make Al-Wifaq the 
largest political society in the new parliament. 
 
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IRAN HAS NO INFLUENCE OVER AL-WIFAQ 
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¶8. (C)  The Ambassador asked about Al-Wifaq's relations with 
Iran, noting the government's concern about Iranian influence 
within Bahrain's Shia community.  Shaikh Ali denied that Iran 
had any influence over Al-Wifaq as an political organization. 
 While there are certainly religious connections, he said, 
these ties do not extend beyond that.  Al-Wifaq does not want 
a Bahrain controlled by Iran, just as it does not want a Shia 
Bahrain or a Sunni Bahrain.  It wants a Bahrain for all 
Bahrainis. 
 
¶9. (C) Shaikh Ali spoke favorably of Bahrain's traditional 
tolerance for all religions and sects, observing that it is 
widely accepted that all religions should be free to observe 
and practice their faith in Bahrain. 
 
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ENDORSEMENT OF RELATIONS WITH THE U.S. 
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¶10. (C) Shaikh Ali also welcomed and endorsed Bahrain's 
strong bilateral relationship with the United States. 
 
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SHIA ACTIVISTS HAVE GENUINE EMPLOYMENT CONCERNS 
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¶11. (C) Asked about Shia activists who have broken away from 
Al-Wifaq over the issue of political registration and have 
engaged in a series of recurring demonstrations, some of 
which have turned violent, Shaikh Ali stated that he was 
worried about how to deal with them.  He said that there is 
genuine frustration among many Shia over the issue of 
unemployment, and activists like Al-Khawaja are tapping into 
this.  The jobs issue is real, he stressed. 
 
¶12. (C) The Ambassador asked how Shaikh Ali viewed the Crown 
Prince's labor reform proposals, which seemed to be a sincere 
effort to deal with the unemployment issue.  Because 
 
 
unemployment disproportionally affects Shia, this would seem 
to be an initiative the Shia community would support.  Shaikh 
Ali acknowledged that he did not really know much about the 
Crown Prince's labor reforms, so could not comment.  The 
Ambassador, noting the generational differences between the 
Prime Minister (the King's uncle), the King, and the Crown 
Prince (the King's son), asked if Shaikh Ali looked more 
favorably towards the younger, more reform-minded leadership. 
 Shaikh Ali said that if he had been asked this question 
three or four years ago, he most certainly would have replied 
affirmatively.  However, with disappointment over 
constitutional issues and allegations that the younger 
generation is as corrupt in its own way as the older 
generation (specifically in the way that it benefits from 
land deals, most notably the sale of land to be reclaimed 
from the sea for big development projects), he is now less 
sure that things have really changed. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶13. (C) Shaikh Ali was warm and engaging, and welcomed the 
opportunity to meet with the U.S. Ambassador.  One year ago, 
the government publicly rebuked the British Ambassador when 
he met with Shaikh Ali, arguing that by meeting with the 
leader of a society which rejected participation in the 
electoral process, the British Ambassador was interfering in 
Bahrain's internal affairs.  With Al-Wifaq's decision to 
register (and presumably participate), times have changed in 
Bahrain.  But in heading towards participation without 
gaining the concessions he had long sought, Shaikh Ali feels 
he is taking a risk, and he hopes for U.S. support in pushing 
his agenda. 
ZIADEH