This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 HANOI 003287 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR USAID/RDM-A/BANGKOK PRIORITY 
STATE FOR G; CA/OCS/ACS/EAP; EAP/EX; EAP/BCLTV; EAP/EP; INR; 
OES/STC (PBATES); OES/IHA (DSINGER AND NCOMELLA) 
BANGKOK FOR RMO, CDC, USAID/RDM/A (MFRIEDMAN AND JMACARTHUR) 
USDA FOR FAS/PASS TO APHIS 
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE FOR OSD/ISA/AP (LSTERN) 
USAID FOR ANE AND GH (DCARROLL, SCLEMENTS AND PCHAPLIN) 
STATE PASS USTR (ELENA BRYAN) 
STATE ALSO PASS HHS/OGHA (EELVANDER) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: AMED AMGT CASC EAGR PINR SOCI PGOV TBIO VM AFLU
SUBJECT: VIETNAM: AVIAN INFLUENZA WEEKLY REPORT FOR DECEMBER 
14, 2005 
 
REF: HANOI 3240 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary.  There have been no new human Avian 
Influenza (AI) cases.  The number of active AI-affected 
areas decreased from 166 communes in 17 provinces to 126 
communes in 15 provinces over the past two weeks, with no 
new reported outbreaks in poultry during the past week.  The 
Government of Vietnam (GVN) believes the sources of AI in 
poultry are endemic and not spread (in Vietnam) by wild bird 
flocks.  The ban on sale of live poultry in urban areas is 
having a profound negative impact on the livelihoods of 
small-scale farmers.  End Summary. 
 
No New Confirmed AI Human Fatalities 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (U) There have been no new confirmed AI human fatalities 
since the October 29 death of a Hanoi man reported 
previously.  Mission has confirmed through Deputy Director 
Nguyen Bich Le of the Can Tho Health Department that a boy 
from southern Hau Giang Province that died on December 12 
tested AI-negative by the Pasteur Institute in HCMC.  We 
have been unable to gather further information on the three- 
year-old boy from southern Tien Giang Province, reported 
previously, who was awaiting confirmation test results. 
 
Number of Active Poultry Outbreak Areas Decreases 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶3.  (U) The number of active AI-affected areas has decreased 
from 166 communes in 17 provinces to 126 communes in 15 
provinces over the past two weeks, with no new reported 
outbreaks during the last week.  This is down from a peak of 
23 provinces.  Fourteen of the current outbreak provinces 
are in northern Vietnam and one is in central Vietnam. 
 
Duck, Duck, Goose! 
------------------ 
 
¶4.  (U) At a periodic donor update meeting held December 13, 
Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) Cao Duc 
Phat expressed strong concern about ducks, which he labeled 
"the reservoirs of the (H5N1) virus," because they have high 
incidence of H5N1 yet remain asymptomatic.  Furthermore, he 
stated that the GVN believes the sources of AI in poultry 
are endemic and not spread (in Vietnam) by wild bird flocks. 
In northern Vietnam, domesticated waterfowl are 
predominantly reared freely in canals and rice fields. 
 
¶5.  (U) With regard to an earlier press article stating that 
Deputy Prime Minister Pham Gia Khiem signed off on a 
proposal on December 8 to "kill all 62 million waterfowl 
across the country," (Reftel) Post has learned that MARD has 
a plan to prohibit hatching waterfowl (30-45 days old), to 
cull free-ranging ducks that have tested AI-positive and to 
send AI-negative ducks to qualified slaughtering houses for 
human consumption.  The total number of waterfowl is less 
than one quarter of the entire poultry flock (62 million 
waterfowl of 220 million poultry). 
 
¶6.  (U) Since the latest wave of AI outbreaks began in early 
October 2005, 3.5 million birds have been destroyed, 
including birds culled in cities due to the ban on live 
poultry in urban areas. 
 
Small Farmers Getting Slammed by Poultry Ban in Cities 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Senior GVN officials including Minister Phat, 
international donors and non-governmental organizations have 
expressed strong concern about the impact the ban on sale of 
live poultry in urban areas is having on the livelihoods of 
small-scale farmers.  Farmers are being compensated about 
one-fifth of the full value for their culled poultry while 
there is no market in the urban areas for live and 
vaccinated poultry, eggs and other poultry products (e.g. 
feather dusters).  Moreover, flocks that are not sent to 
market must be fed at home.  As predominantly poor agrarian 
households find it increasingly difficult to make ends meet, 
flocks are left to starve and farmers sink closer toward or 
further into poverty. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Post believes the rationale for GVN to close the 
"wet markets" is their way of decreasing the number of 
small, household flocks.  The GVN seeks to send all poultry 
to controlled slaughterhouses only.  The ban on the sale of 
live poultry in wet markets will discourage smaller growers 
not associated with plants from growing birds.  An 
additional positive impact of the ban is that fewer animal 
health extensionists will be needed in the medium and long- 
term to train small farmers.  Again, how poorer, small-scale 
farmers will react to these market pressures is unknown, but 
the international donor community is concerned.  [NOTE: 
Emergency relief for this economic disaster may need to be 
considered. END NOTE] 
 
Can Vietnam Produce AI Vaccines for Humans and Animals? 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Knowledge about GVN's specific plans for the 
development of a human AI vaccine is still limited.  In the 
beginning of 2005, the National Institute of Hygiene and 
Epidemiology (NIHE) was assigned the task of developing a 
human H5N1 vaccine.  NIHE worked with scientists at Tokyo 
University to develop the vaccine seed strain virus and 
selected primary monkey kidney cells as the culture medium. 
According to a November 26 article in Nhan Dan newspaper, a 
scientific committee assembled by the Ministry of Science 
and Technology recommended to the Office of the Government 
that NIHE should not be permitted to proceed to clinical 
trials with their vaccine, citing concerns about the origin 
of the seed strain virus and the safety of primary monkey 
kidney cells for use in human vaccines.  Representatives of 
the World Health Organization (WHO) have confirmed this, but 
noted that NIHE was permitted to proceed if they met all of 
the recommendations made by WHO vaccine experts, which has 
not yet happened. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Regarding the GVN's efforts to develop an animal 
AI vaccine, the Institute of Biotechnology (IBT) at the 
Vietnamese Academy of Science and Technology has developed a 
prototype veterinary AI vaccine from a WHO-approved seed 
strain virus.  The Director of IBT noted that the institute 
is currently conducting small-scale clinical trials in rats 
and poultry using three dose levels and indicated that the 
results at three weeks post inoculation are promising. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) MARD's NAVETCO, the largest producer of animal 
medicines and vaccines in Vietnam, has partnered with IBT to 
produce sufficient vaccine for full clinical trials. 
NAVETCO has expressed interest in developing the technology 
to use pathogen-free eggs as the culture medium, in which 
they claim the virus grows very well.  Such eggs are 
imported at prices ranging from USD 4 to 25 per egg.  Two 
key impediments to GVN's plans to produce enough poultry 
vaccine for the country's needs are a lack of technology in 
Vietnam to produce pathogen-free eggs and insufficient 
capital to build a proper vaccine production facility. 
GVN's efforts to conduct a nationwide poultry vaccination 
campaign have been hampered by unsteady supplies of the 
animal vaccine, which is imported from China, and 
unspecified issues related to quality control. 
 
Brother, How Art Thou? 
---------------------- 
 
¶12.  (U) An informal survey conducted by local Embassy staff 
indicates that Vietnamese people do not think AI is a major 
threat at this time and as long as the virus has not yet 
transmitted from human to human.  However, respondents all 
have a vigilant attitude towards eating chicken meat.  A 
quick walk around Hanoi reinforced this observation.  Shops 
that formerly sold chicken, duck and goose noodle soup (a 
favorite traditional food in Hanoi) have either closed or 
been transformed into other lines of business. 
 
¶13.  (U) Although the GVN has mobilized an information 
campaign (posters, public announcements, news) to educate 
the Vietnamese about AI, many people have not prepared 
themselves for an epidemic scenario and do not know what 
they will do if and when an AI pandemic occurs.  "Let fate 
decide" and "We just cannot do anything" are two commonly 
held beliefs among the Vietnamese people.  Unlike many 
expatriates, most Vietnamese in Hanoi have not stockpiled 
Tamilfu for their families despite street prices as low as 
USD 35 per 10-tablet dose. 
 
¶14.  (U) Not surprisingly, awareness levels about AI in 
rural areas are worse.  Informal discussions with contacts 
in Ha Tay Province (50 km from Hanoi) and Hoa Binh Province 
(70 km from Hanoi) indicate that farmers do not care much 
about the pandemic as they have many other difficulties to 
cope with.  Many households do not kill their chickens, 
ducks and geese, as these animals are relatively high-value 
and a significant household resource to them.  For some 
people in rural areas, historically low prices for poultry 
meat (about USD 0.30 per duck/goose) provides a new luxury 
for rice bowls that previously were meatless and lacked 
adequate protein. 
 
MARINE