This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAR ES SALAAM 002282 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/RSA AND AF/E FOR B YODER 
ALSO DRL FOR K GILBRIDE 
NSC FOR C COURVILLE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV TZ
SUBJECT: TANZANIA UNION ELECTIONS:  CCM WINNING BIG ON 
MAINLAND; ZANZIBAR ISLES SPLIT 
 
REF: A. DAR ES SALAAM 02281 
 
     ¶B. DAR ES SALAAM 02243 
 
SUMMARY 
-------- 
¶1.  Unofficial and still incomplete results of the December 
14 Union elections in Tanzania indicate  Chama Cha 
Mapinduzi 
(CCM) presidential candidate Jakaya Kikwete has delivered a 
crushing blow to opposition candidates and won by nearly 80 
percent of the vote.  Official results should be announced 
Sunday, but unofficial results for 225 of 234 parliamentary 
seats were announced at 6 p.m. (local time) Friday, 
December 
16 with CCM taking 200 seats.  The opposition has 
apparently 
won 25. 
 
¶2.  On Zanzibar, the Civic United Front (CUF) has won all 
18 
constituencies in Pemba and one in Stone Town on Zanzibar, 
but lost both of the MP seats they held on the Mainland. 
CUF 
now has 19 MP positions as compared to 17 in the last 
parliament.  The other opposition parties have won: 4 seats 
for Chadema (same as 2000);  one seat for Tanzanian Labor 
Party - TLP (a loss of 3); one seat for UDP (same as 2000). 
The results of the last seven MP seats should also be 
announced by Sunday. 
 
¶3.  Postponement of Union elections after the death in late 
October of Chadema's vice presidential candidate apparently 
took the wind from the sails of opposition parties, 
depleted 
their finances, and handed Kikwete an even larger margin of 
victory.   The power of CCM incumbency and deep pockets of 
the State also worked in Kikwete's favor, as did his 
natural 
charm and legacy of Mkapa's economic reform efforts.  On 
Zanzibar, there was no such sweep, where CCM only barely 
edged CUF in a hotly contested and seriously flawed October 
30 elections.  The bottom line, however, is that Zanzibar, 
like the Mainland, remains CCM, and Tanzania, after 40 
years 
of independence remains a one-party state.  Tanzania, 
therefore, remains bereft of a genuine forceful opposition 
in 
Parliament, and thus one of the surest checks and balances 
on 
abuse of power and corruption.  In the long run, if 
multi-party democracy is to flourish here, Tanzania will 
have 
to develop a strong and vocal opposition.  End summary. 
 
Wind out of the opposition sails 
-------------------------------- 
¶4.  The unexpected postponement of Union elections for the 
presidency and for parliament left nearly all of Tanzania's 
opposition political parties with too much time--the 
campaign 
was extended for three more weeks starting on November 22 
(reftel)--and very little resources to continue 
campaigning. 
Many election watchers had predicted prior to the 
postponement of elections, that this year could see gains 
of 
up to 10 to 20 seats for opposition parties.  With 7 seats 
remaining to be announced and the opposition having 
clinched 
only 25 seats, it appears that at best, the opposition 
parties will be able to make only a modest gain, if any. 
Several constituencies have recorded some upsets. 
 
The Upsets 
---------- 
¶5.  In the far northwest district of Bukoba, the CUF 
candidate Wilfred Lwakatare, who was the incumbent and had 
been the Opposition Leader in the previous parliament was 
incredulous when the presiding officer announced that the 
CCM 
candidate had won.  The CCM candidate also won a surprise 
victory in the Hai constituency which was considered a 
Chadema stronghold. The previous MP in Hai was Freeman 
Mbowe, 
now the presidential candidate for the Chadema party. 
 
Voter Turnout 
------------- 
¶6.  The December 15 Dar es Salaam press reported a "massive 
voter turnout" and international observers on both the 
Mainland and Zanzibar estimate that turnout could prove to 
be 
as high as 65 percent once all the results are in.  This 
percentage represents a National Permanent Voters Register 
of 
15.9 million Tanzanians, the highest number ever to be 
registered for a general election. Thus an 80 percent 
margin 
of victory for Foreign Minister Kikwete is a clear and 
strong 
mandate. 
Conduct of Elections 
-------------------- 
¶7.  Observers of Dar-based diplomatic missions who worked 
together to observe the Union elections on both the 
Mainland 
and Zanzibar agreed at a December 16 meeting that overall 
the 
conduct of the elections by the National Electoral 
Commission 
was technically sound.  While election day was marred by 
some 
instances of multiple voting and violence reported on 
Unguja 
Island of Zanzibar, most observers did not consider NEC to 
be 
responsible for these occurrences. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶8.  Although the polls in most constituencies appear to be 
the will of the people, the fact that the opposition has 
made 
virtually no gains, and President-elect Kikwete seems to 
have 
won by the highest margin of victory in Tanzanian history, 
raises both opportunities for Tanzania and fears.  With 
Kikwete firmly in control of CCM and Tanzanian politics, he 
could move to reform campaign finances, take meaningful 
anti-corruption measures and perhaps take decisive steps to 
help bridge the bitter divide on Zanzibar between CCM and 
CUF.  At the same time, with no viable opposition to the 
CCM 
juggernaut in Parliament or, for that matter, anywhere on 
the 
political scene here, Tanzania loses a precious check and 
balance in any multi-party democracy.  Wednesday's 
resounding 
defeat for Tanzania's splintered opposition parties may 
force 
them to merge and move from personality to issue-based 
politics.  But we are not sanguine, and certainly do not 
expect it to happen tomorrow.  What we do know, however, is 
that with his inauguration on December 21, Kikwete and CCM 
seize the reins of power for at least another five years. 
Whether this opens an opportunity for U.S. policy remains 
to 
be seen. 
DELLY