This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BOGOTA 011459 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2105 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER CO ELN ELN
SUBJECT: GUARANTORS BRIEF AMBASSADOR ON GOC-ELN TALKS IN 
CUBA; MODERATE OPTIMISM BUT NO FALSE ILLUSIONS 
 
REF: BOGOTA XXX 
 
Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood 
Reason: 1.4 (b,d) 
 
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Summary 
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¶1.  (C) The five "Casa de Paz" initiative guarantors told the 
Ambassador December 9 they are moderately optimistic about 
the upcoming GOC-ELN talks in Cuba but have no false 
illusions.  The ELN pushed for December talks when the 
guarantors would have preferred to wait until late January to 
prepare an agenda and define modalities; the guarantors 
therefore want to manage expectations in Havava (especially 
on the ELN side) and ensure the talks continue in 2006, 
preferably in Europe.  The Ambassador said the U.S. would 
support a legitimate peace process but would not talk 
directly to terrorists.  The U.S. has been frustrated in the 
past by ELN spoiling tactics in peace talks.  In respose to 
the Ambassador's question about the ELN's true independence 
from the FARC, the guarantors said ELN and FARC forces had 
clashed increasingly in the past 10 months, and the 
guarantors perceive the ELN's decision to talk with the GOC 
as demonstrating a certain degree of independence.  End 
summary. 
 
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The Havana Talks 
---------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) The five "Casa de Paz" initiative guarantors (Moritz 
Akerman, Daniel Garcia-Pena, Alvaro Jimenez, Gustavo Ruiz, 
and Alejo Vargas) briefed Ambassador Wood December 9 on their 
upcoming trip to Cuba to help organize the first direct 
GOC-ELN talks in over a decade.  The guarantors plan to leave 
for Havana over the weekend.  Garcia-Pena said they expect to 
make preparatory arrangements on an agenda and modalities 
December 12-15 in Havana with the GOC, ELN, and 
representatives from Spain, Norway, and Switzerland.  The 
Cubans would only host the talks and would not facilitate. 
GOC Peace Commissioner Luis Carlos Restrepo is expected to 
arrive December 14.  Military commander Antonio Garcia will 
be the ELN's chief representative.  The formal proceedings 
start December 16, and direct GOC-ELN meetings are planned 
during December 17-22. 
 
¶3.  (C) Garcia-Pena said the guarantors would have preferred 
a late January date to give them time to agree on an agenda 
and methods of conducting the talks, but the ELN insisted on 
meeting in December in Cuba (in part, he suggested, so that 
the ELN could "repay a debt" to the Cubans for previous 
support).  The guarantors will discuss with representatives 
from Spain, Norway, and Switzerland the roles they could most 
appropriately play, but plan to suggest a watching brief 
("ambientar") rather than a facilitation.  Spain is prepared 
to accept this kind of role.  Norway and Switzerland are 
pressing for more active participation. 
 
¶4.  (C) The Ambassador noted that we were trying hard not to 
criticize the Havana venue, even though the Cubans had played 
at best an ambiguous role in the past and had undermined the 
Mexican peace effort.  But he urged that any follow-on talks 
move from place to place, so that there is no "Havana 
process" consultations. 
 
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Expectations, Personalities Key 
------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) Akerman (echoed by others) said the guarantors would 
try to keep expectations for the Havana talks realistic.  The 
guarantors are moderately optimistic but have no false 
illusions, he said.  They would focus on defining an agenda 
and next steps, aiming to prevent a breakdown in talks in 
Cuba because ground had not been sufficiently prepared in 
advance or because of the clash of strong personalities 
(mentioning Restrepo and Garcia, in particular, as risking an 
"encuentro de vanidades").  Akerman said the guarantors would 
try to prepare the ground December 12-15 to avoid a set-piece 
recitation of grievances on December 16 that would get the 
talks off to a poor start.  The guarantors recognize that 
Uribe has made significant concessions to get the talks 
started (establishing the "peace house" near Medellin; 
releasing the ELN's Francisco Galan from jail to attend the 
peace house; allowing civil society to interact with him; and 
permitting international involvement). 
 
¶6. (C) According to Akerman, the guarantors prefer that 
subsequent GOC-ELN sessions take place in Europe ("more 
modern") rather than in Cuba, which represents the past. 
Future locations are undecided, he said, but Norway and 
Switzerland have offered themselves as hosts.  Norway has 
assigned responsibility for following developments to its 
vice foreign minister (who will not be in Havana, however). 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
Ambassador Offers Support for Genuine Peace Talks 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶7.  (C) The Ambassador said the U.S. supported legitimate 
peace talks but would not under any circumstances talk 
directly to terrorists.  If the ELN's motivation were 
revealed to be tactical rather than genuine, the U.S. would 
support the GOC if it decided to pull the plug on talks.  The 
U.S. has in the past been frustrated with the ELN's spoiling 
tactics (for example, breaking off talks with the Mexican 
facilitators earlier in 2005).  The Ambassador questioned 
whether the ELN could deliver all its members in a peace deal 
even if it wanted to, as the organization was less centrally 
controlled than ever before.  He said the ELN was facing 4 
more years of Uribe and may be calculating that it is better 
to deal with the GOC from a position of relative strength 
rather than wait a few years and continue to deteriorate.  As 
a result of past ELN behavior, the Ambassador said he was 
somewhat less optimistic than the guarantors that the process 
would succeed. 
 
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ELN-FARC Relationship Unclear 
----------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) In response to the Ambassador's question about the 
relationship between the ELN and the FARC, Jimenez said the 
groups continue joint operations in some areas, but the past 
10 months have witnessed significant armed confrontations, 
especially in Arauca, Antioquia, and Narino Departments 
(Vargas said the FARC has killed more ELN members than the 
GOC).  Garcia-Pena said the ELN's decision to meet with the 
GOC in direct talks suggested a real degree of independence. 
As a result of the deterioration in ELN-FARC relations, 
however, he said it would be difficult to persuade the ELN to 
agree to a ceasefire if, by doing so, it exposed its members 
to further FARC attacks.  The Ambassador said a GOC-ELN peace 
deal would signal a significant political and diplomatic 
setback for the FARC and he therefore expected the FARC to 
pressure the ELN every day to reject a deal with the GOC. 
 
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Electoral Considerations 
------------------------ 
 
¶9.  (C) The Ambassador said the ELN should not be allowed to 
participate in electoral politics (in 2006 or at any other 
time) unless it renounced violence, released hostages, and 
committed to the democratic process.  The guarantors agreed, 
saying that during the civil society "peace house" 
consultations the legal, democratic left had made it clear to 
the ELN that peaceful politics was the only way forward for 
the left.  Garcia-Pena said the ELN was encouraged by Latin 
American leftist developments (in particular, Lula in Brazil 
and Chavez in Venezuela) and considered political space in 
Colombia more open than before.  According to Garcia-Pena, 
ELN direct participation in the 2006 campaigns is less likely 
than its participation in the 2007 regional elections.  The 
Ambassador cautioned that while Uribe does not need the ELN 
talks to boost his popularity (it is already very high), he 
would have to react to negative GOC-ELN developments so that 
he did not lose support during the campaign. 
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Talks Build on Talks 
-------------------- 
¶10.  (C) Jimenez conceded that the Havana talks would be 
improvised due to the short lead time, but insisted that 
previous GOC-ELN exchanges have established a general 
consensus on next steps.  He said a first phase of 
substantive talks would likely focus on matters such as a 
ceasefire and hostage exchange, while a second phase would 
discuss broader socio-political subjects, including the 
possibility of a national convention at which democratic 
reforms would be considered.  According to Jimenez, the GOC 
has in the past accepted in principle the utility of such a 
national convention in the right circumstances. 
 
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Justice and Peace, Narcotrafficking 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (C) The Ambassador said the ELN should not get a more 
advantageous deal from the GOC than the paramilitaries 
received through the Justice and Peace law; the touchstone 
for "deals" for terrorists should be the same: jail time for 
those who have committed gross human rights violations or who 
ordered others to commit such violations.  If the ELN 
received a better deal, he said, the GOC would be obligated 
to offer the same terms to the paramilitaries.  Ruiz (echoed 
by Akerman) said the international legal environment relating 
to pardons and amnesties had changed significantly in recent 
years, such that governments had much less "amnesty" wiggle 
room and faced stricter legal conditions.  It is far from 
clear that the ELN understands this, he said.  Garcia-Pena 
said the ELN lacks a clear political objective and badly 
needs perspective.  The Ambassador said the guarantors and 
the ELN should understand that if the facts demonstrated the 
ELN's involvement in drug trafficking then U.S. extradition 
requests could follow, potentially complicating the process. 
WOOD