This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BASRAH 000152 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  12/19/2015 
TAGS: PREL KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: INFORMAL ELECTION-DAY POLL RESULTS IN THE SOUTH 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Alan Latimer, Regional Coordinator, Regional 
Embassy Office Basrah, State. 
REASON: 1.4 (b) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary.  During the December 15 election REO Basrah 
partnered with Al-Manarah newspaper, Radio Shinasheel and the 
AFAQ Media NGO to conduct informal polling of Iraqi voters in 
the south.  These three organizations conducted election-day 
polling in all four (4) southern provinces, using the same 
questionnaire developed collaboratively with the REO.  As of 
December 16, Al-Manarah and AFAQ reported the results of 3,759 
responses to the REO.  The raw data indicates that 49.19% of 
voters that responded to the poll said they voted for the 555 
list, with 20.54% for 731. The poll also asked about important 
issues and influences affecting voters' decisions, as well as 
collecting demographic data.  The poll results should be 
considered anecdotal and viewed only as collected data.  End 
Summary. 
 
¶2.  (C) According to a summary of all data collected, 49.19% of 
poll participants indicated a vote for 555, 20.54% for 731, 
18.76% for other parties and 11.51% did not respond to the 
question.  By province the raw data indicated the following: 
 
--Basrah:  555 (48.45%), 731 (22.14%), Other Lists (25.62%), No 
Answer (3.79%) 
--Nasariyah:  555 (59.21%), 731 (18.87%), Other Lists (4.11%), 
No Answer (17.81%) 
--Al-Amarah:  555 (58.98%), 731 (21.53%), Other Lists (13.39%), 
No Answer (6.10%) 
--Al-Samawah:  555 (53.80%), 731 (23.68%), Other Lists (4.39%), 
No Answer (18.13%) 
 
REO Basrah received polling data from Wasit, Najaf, Diywaniyah, 
Karbala and Babil, but the sample size was considerably smaller 
than the four southern provinces as AFAQ and Radio Shinasheel 
did not conduct polling in south central Iraq.  The data were 
included in overall summary calculations throughout the cable, 
but are not referenced here. 
 
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Security and family/religious values were most important 
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¶3.  (C) 34.88% of all responses indicated that 'security' was 
the most important issue affecting their own vote, with 33.70% 
indicating personal/family values.  18.09% of voters indicated 
that 'comments or statements' by Al-Sistani affected their vote. 
 Security was the most important issue facing all Iraqis during 
the election, drawing the largest response at 43.41%.  When 
asked the source of political advertising they saw prior to the 
election, 51.51% responded 'posters', with 29.30% responding 
'TV', and only a few indicated newspapers, radio or leaflets. 
However, only 20.62% said that advertising affected howthey 
voted.  Poll participants cited religious values as the most 
important "personal issue" affecting their vote (35.28%), with 
their 'own opinions' a close second (31.32%). 
 
¶4.  (C) The reported demographics for the combined polling data 
are as follows: 
 
Age 
--------------------------------------- 
-- 18-25        730     24.02% 
-- 25-35        997     29.37% 
-- 35-50        868     26.44% 
-- 50-65        333       9.86% 
-- Over 65      122       3.73% 
-- No Answer    263       6.58% 
 
Gender 
---------------------------------------- 
-- Male 2115    66.12% 
-- Female         864   25.52% 
-- No Answer      334     8.36% 
 
Education 
---------------------------------------- 
-- Primary        793   24.97% 
-- Secondary    1104    33.68% 
-- College        678   22.52% 
-- None   220   11.23% 
-- No Answer      304     7.61% 
 
¶5.  (C) Polling organizations reported a number of difficulties 
in conducting the poll.  The security situation required that 
pollsters pre-position themselves in the respective locations 
several days prior to the election.  Poll workers were unable to 
canvas the cities that they covered due to transportation 
restrictions.  Poll results had to be called in to media 
organizations throughout the day, which was problematic due to 
poor communications infrastructure.  As seen in the demographic 
data, women were reluctant to participate in the poll, and poll 
workers reported that those who did participate were often in 
the presence of their husband or father.  The proportion of 
women participating in the poll was far lower than their turnout 
in the actual election, which undoubtedly affected the poll 
results.  In Babil and Wasit provinces, poll workers reported 
that participants were very reluctant to indicate their voting 
decision. 
 
¶6.  (C) Comment.  Poll results received from AFAQ and Al-Manarah 
were consistent with pre-election expectations.  The raw data 
suggests that support for 555 in the outlying provinces of Dhi 
Qar, Muthanna and Maysan was categorically stronger than in 
Basrah, due in part to a less affluent, less educated 
population.  Although security concerns were cited by poll 
participants in most provinces as the primary issue affecting 
them, personal and religious values played a strong role in 
voting decisions.  End Comment 
GROSS