This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 005155 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/29/2015 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PNAT IZ
SUBJECT: ALLAWI AND SUNNI ARAB PARTIES CONSIDER BROADER 
COALITION 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Ford for reasons 
1.4(b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Sunni Arab political party leaders reported 
to PolOffs December 29 that they are headed towards a 
government coalition alliance with both Ayad Allawi's 
National Iraqi List and the Kurdish Alliance and eventually 
later with the Shia Islamists.  However, our Sunni Arab 
contacts also stress that they need a serious investigation 
and "more balanced" results of the December 15 election. 
Allawi aides told us they await talks with the Kurds about 
joining a coalition government, and one top aide mused to 
us December 29 about being in a loyal opposition.  We think 
Allawi is still interested in joining a coalition.  END 
SUMARY. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
Iraqi Islamic Party Moving on Two Tracks Now 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Ayad Samarai, number two in the Iraqi Islamic Party 
(IIP), told PolOff December 29 that the his party needs a 
serious response to its call for an international 
investigation of the December 15 election results.  Without 
such a response, he feared, the Sunni Arab public would not 
understand subsequent Islamic Party cooperation with or in 
the next government.  He added that the IIP had agreed with 
President Talabani to move forward simultaneously on two 
paths: one, to investigate claims of electoral fraud while 
also moving on a path towards discussing the formation of a 
new government. 
 
¶3. (C) Samarai confirmed they had planned to attend 
meetings this week for negotiations with Allawi in 
Sulaymaniyah and the Kurds in Irbil, but they did not 
attend due to logistical problems.  Samarai said they plan 
to meet soon with Allawi and the Kurds. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
Sunni Arabs and International Monitors 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Samarai also relayed that Tawafuq leaders will meet 
Saturday with UN experts reviewing IECI's vote-counting 
process.  He said there was a productive three hour meeting 
December 28 with the United Nations Special Representative 
of the Secretary General Ashraf Qazi and other major 
political coalitions - National Dialogue and Tawafuq - to 
pressure Qazi for more international elections review 
experts. 
 
¶5. (C) Samarai welcomed the news from PolOff that the 
Ambassador had yesterday personally asked SRSG Qazi and the 
election commission to bring more international observers 
to Iraq to review the process.  Samarai said this would 
have a very helpful psychological effect among Iraq's Sunni 
Arab community to get them to accept the election results. 
He said it will show that Tawafuq - the most influential of 
the Sunni Arab blocs - can influence the IECI.  The goal of 
the Tawafuq, Samarai emphasized, is a national unity 
government.  (Comment:  Tariq al-Hashemi, the head of the 
IIP, separately told PolCouns December 29 that the news 
that the International Mission for Iraqi Elections (IMIE) 
were sending more people was very positive.  We are trying 
to get Hashemi to issue a press statement late December 29 
to this effect.  End Comment.) 
 
------------------------ 
Negotiating a Government 
------------------------ 
 
¶6. (C) Mahmoud Mashadani, a member of the Iraqi Council of 
National Dialogue (ICND), told PolOff December 29 they want 
to form a broader coalition with Allawi and the Kurds, but 
their goal is to ensure that Allawi doesn't get his choice 
for the new ministers of Interior and Defense.  Mashadani 
said they might announce such a coalition soon. He added 
that National Dialog Council members were meeting today to 
list their own candidates for the two ministerial 
positions. 
 
¶7. (C) Sheik Abdul Nasir al-Janabi, a harder line member of 
the ICND, told PolOff December 29 that Sunnis are 40 
percent of Iraq's population, and 50 percent of Baghdad's 
population.  Thus, he wanted the seat allocation in the 
Council of Representatives to reflect this.  Despite 
PolOff's reply that the Sunni Arab percentage of Iraq is 
much smaller, al-Janabi persisted.  (Note: Abdel Nasser 
reflects what we hear from many Sunni contacts that are 
having trouble accepting that Baghdad, built by Jafar al- 
Mansur, a Sunni Arab general 1,300 years ago, is now a 
majority Shia city.  End Comment.) 
 
¶8. (C) Dr. Hassan al-Bazazz, a Tawafuq member and 
University of Baghdad Political Science professor, told 
PolOff December 29 that the mood within the Tawafuq 
until yesterday had been optimistic about forming an 
alliance with Allawi and the Kurds.  But after statements 
by Masoud Barzani and Abdulaziz al-Hakim yesterday implying 
the Kurds and Shia are less enthusiastic about this 
alliance, the Tawafuq members felt as if they are "back to 
square one."   (Comment:  al-Hakim told the Kurdish 
parliament on December 28 that the next government should 
be a national unity government but that ministerial 
distribution within the government should be based on 
election results.  Sunni Arabs want to have more than 
roughly 1/5 of the key government posts.  End Comment.) 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
MARAM TO MEET DECEMBER 31 - URGED TO ISSUE STATEMENT 
WELCOMING OBSERVERS AND PROMISING TO COOPERATE 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶9. (C) Ibrahim al-Janabi, Chief of Staff to Dr. Ayad 
Allawi, told PolOff December 29 that the MARAM group - 
which is comprised of the National Iraqi List, Tawafuq, the 
National Dialogue, and over 40 smaller political entities - 
will meet again December 31.  The group has not met since 
December 26.  PolOff urged al-Janabi to have MARAM issue a 
statement that welcomes the international monitors from the 
International Mission for Iraqi Elections (IMIE) and 
promises to cooperate with them.  Al-Janabi agreed that 
political parties must accept the conclusions of any report 
issued by the monitors.  Al-Janabi also said the National 
Iraqi List is prepared to meet with the international 
monitors.  (Comment:  Allawi told the Ambassador December 
29 that he would issue a statement welcoming the stepped up 
international role in reviewing the election process.  End 
Comment.) 
 
¶10. (C) Al-Janabi said that Dr. Allawi still has not been 
invited to Sulaymaniyah to meet with President Talabani. 
He added that is the democratic right of the largest 
parties (the Shia and Kurdish Alliances) to negotiate with 
each other, but he sees two possible outcomes: (1) these 
two parties form a government, but they must allow those 
excluded to be a real opposition (mentioning the idea of a 
shadow government); and (2) these two parties invite the 
others to join a national unity government, but it must be 
based on the idea of equal shares for the government 
formation/ministry distribution, regardless of their 
success at the ballot box.  (Note: It is still not clear if 
Al-Janabi believes the National Iraqi List would be one of 
these entities, or whether these would be limited in 
practice to the Shia Alliance, the Sunni Arab bloc, and the 
Kurdish Alliance. End Note.) 
 
¶11. (C) Comment:   We have been urging the Sunni Arab 
Tawaffuq, the Allawi camp and the Kurds all to link up 
before negotiating with the Shia.  We sense progress in 
that area although it is slow.  There is more progress 
between the Allawi camp and the Sunni Arabs, but that 
results in part from their all being in Baghdad, and the 
Kurdish leadership being up north.  Despite posturing by 
lower-level Sunni Arabs leaked into western press, the 
political party leaders reiterated today their desire to 
form a national unity government with fair representation. 
Their main concern at the moment, however, is to show their 
constituencies that they are pressuring the IECI to produce 
transparent, accurate election results.  Their response to 
increased international observer participation through UN 
efforts is encouraging.  This stepped-up role could give 
credibility to the elections results within the potentially 
volatile Sunni Arab community. 
 
KHALILZAD