This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 005131 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/27/2015 
TAGS: PNAT PGOV PTER KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: ELECTION UPDATE: OCV DOES NOT CHANGE RESULTS, 
DEBAATH COMMISSION WINS, AND FEMALE REPRESENTATION 
PROJECTED LOWER 
 
REF: A. A. BAGHDAD 05087 
     ¶B. B. BAGHDAD 05052 
 
Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Michael Oreste for 
reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). 
 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary: Preliminary counts from the over 300,000 out- 
of-country and 200,000 special voting ballots show the 
largest 
number of votes going to the Shia Coalition (36.6%) followed 
by 
the Kurdish Coalition(30%) and National Iraqi List (11%). 
When 
added into the preliminary totals, these votes do not alter 
the 
Council of Representative seat distribution projected by Post 
(ref A).  These numbers are still preliminary and subject to 
change, especially depending on the results of the IECI's 
complaint investigation (1,600 complaints overall with 35 
"red" 
or serious complaints). 
 
¶2.  (C) (Summary cont.) If Post's analysis holds, this CoR 
may 
hold a slightly lower number of female parliamentarians than 
the 
previous TNA.  Candidate lists also will be affected by the 
Transitional Electoral Panel's (TEP) decision to uphold the 
DeBa'athification Commission's exclusive authority to decide 
whether candidates are subject to de-ba'athification and, 
therefore, should be disqualified. Meanwhile, UNAMI is 
seeking 
greater involvement by the International Mission for Iraq 
Elections (IMIE) in response to demands from various parties 
for 
an outside international committee that would be able to 
verify 
results and address the allegations of fraud.  End Summary. 
 
¶3. (C) The IECI announced in its press conference December 26 
that it had counted 90 percent of the OCV and Special Voting 
votes, which only represents about five percent of the total 
vote. After incorporating OCV and special voting data 
provided 
by the IECI, Post still calculated the same previously 
calculated Council of Representatives seat distribution ? 
with 
the Shia Alliance obtaining 131 seats, the Kurdish Alliance 
obtaining 53 seats, and Tawaffuq winning 41 seats.  This 
count 
continues to put the Shia Alliance in a very strong lead; it 
would need only 53 more votes to reach a two-thirds voting 
majority necessary to elect the Presidency Council. Results 
from 
the Turkey OCV has not yet been included in the final numbers 
due to concerns about fraud. 
 
¶4. (C) In a surprise decision, the Transitional Electoral 
Panel 
(TEP), decided on December 24 to uphold the National 
Deba'athification Commission's (NDC) appeal of the IECI's 
initial decision not to disqualify any candidates on de- 
ba'athification grounds (reftel B).  Given this decision, the 
IECI has decided that it must disqualify all of the now 90 
candidates the NDC asserts are covered by the 
Deba'athification 
Law.  On December 26, International IECI Commissioner Craig 
Jenness told Poloffs that the IECI would give parties time to 
propose alternate candidates from its lists, and would wait 
until December 28 before beginning to disqualify candidates. 
Post projects that only three candidates would be directly 
affected by this decision: Adnan Al-Janabi, Rasim Husain A- 
Awadi, and Abd Al-Lateef Al Badri, all List 731 National 
Iraqi 
List members.  (Comment:  Given the Sunni reaction to the 
preliminary election results, post is concerned about the 
additional negative reaction the TEP decision will engender 
in 
Sunni groups.  Under relevant CPA Memorandum No. 7 and CPA 
Order 
No. 100, the Prime Minister maintains the authority to 
reverse 
De-ba'athification decisions of the NDC if it is "in the 
interests of the Iraqi people" or if the NDC decision would 
be 
"fundamentally unfair."  Both post and the UK intend to 
engage 
the PM on this option, though he likely will be quite 
reluctant 
to make such a decision.  End comment.) 
 
¶5. (C) Post estimates that, given the current data, the 
number 
of women who win seats in parliament would reach 66, slightly 
lower than the 25 percent quota called for by the 
constitution 
and significantly lower than the 84 female TNA members.  On 
December 26, Craig Jenness told Poloff that the UN advisors 
may 
consider suggesting that compensatory seat candidate lists be 
submitted with a female candidate every 2, 5, 8 and place, to 
ensure a slightly higher representation of female 
representation 
in the CoR. 
 
¶6. (C) Complaints now have risen above 1700, with 38 
considered 
to be the "red" complaints. Of these complaints, the most 
serious one is an allegation that in Baghdad 45 ballot boxes 
were taken and stuffed with fraudulent ballots. If true, this 
allegation may result in over 22,000 false votes, which could 
alter the Baghdad results by one seat. 
 
¶7. (C) The Allawi's coalition and the Sunni Arabs still 
express 
deep concerns over the results of the elections and question 
the 
credibility of the process.  IMIE Representative Nora 
Kankashian 
told PolOff on December 26 that based on an invitation from 
SRSG 
Qazi, IMIE has drafted a plan to quickly increase their 
presence 
in Iraq to cover the remainder of the electoral process, 
especially the complaints review.  Since the draft plan still 
has not been approved by IMIE headquarters in Canada, 
Kankashian 
stated she could not provide any details.  However, she 
expressed confidence that the plan would be approved and that 
personnel could be dispatched, most likely from Amman. 
 
¶8. (C) Despite overall positive preliminary reports by IMIE 
as 
well as the Iraqi Elections Information Network (EIN), 
Kankashian still expressed concerns over how the complaints 
process was being handled, and opined to PolOff that the 
process 
was going too slowly and yielded few tangible results.  She 
was 
particularly concerned over the recent IECI audit conducted 
on 
the Baghdad votes, an event that the IECI invited 
international 
observers and domestic monitors to attend.  She described the 
audit as confusing and ineffective, with the IECI staff 
seemingly unable to adequately explain the process or the 
intent.  According to Kankashian, several political party 
agents 
hastily departed the audit, demonstrating their 
dissatisfaction 
with the conduct of that exercise.  In addition to concerns 
over 
the domestic elections, she stated that IMIE remained 
concerned 
over the OCV vote in Istanbul, and expects the IECI to 
conduct a 
prompt and thorough investigation of those problems. 
 
¶9. (C) Comment: As per the UN's previously stated election 
timeline, the IECI will most likely not finish hammering out 
election certification until early January.  While there are 
some "bumps" in the process ? characterized by the backlash 
the 
announcement of partial results has engendered, it does not 
seem 
likely that the results will change significantly - even 
after 
all the complaints are certified.  The biggest challenge for 
the 
IECI continues to be a public image issue, which with the aid 
of 
IMIE it will hopefully begin to address. 
KHALILZAD