This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 001826

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: SOFIA MAYOR'S ELECTION TESTS RULING COALITION STABILITY

Ref: (A) SOFIA 1134, (B) SOFIA 1450, (C) SOFIA 1598

¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Bulgaria will hold mayoral by-elections October
29 in Sofia and seven other cities where mayors were elected to
parliament in the June general elections (Ref. A).  The partners in
the Socialist-led government have failed, however, to agree on
joint candidates, turning the by-elections into a test for the
fledgling ruling coalition.  The Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP)
and its coalition partner, the National Movement for Simeon II
(NMSS), have named two of their most prominent figures to compete
against each other in the key Sofia race.  While that is unlikely
to affect government stability, it will raise tension among the
coalition partners.  The participation of the hugely popular former
Interior Ministry Chief Secretary Boiko Borissov in the Sofia race
adds another element of unpredictability.  Borissov, who is running
as an independent and according to polls enjoys a strong lead,
hopes this election will be his springboard to a national political
career.  END SUMMARY

THE SOFIA RACE: KEY CONTESTANTS

¶2. (U) Fifteen candidates contest the Sofia race, which follows the
election to parliament of ten-year mayor Stefan Sofianski.  Polls
suggest five candidates have a realistic chance of winning:
Socialist Party entrant Gen. Borissov (the Socialist Party took the
most votes in Sofia in the June vote) as well as the nominees of
the NMSS and the two major center-right parties.  The weak and
fragmented center-right groups failed to name a joint nominee,
hobbling their candidates in this traditional center-right
stronghold.  The extreme nationalist group Ataka, which ranked
fourth in the June general elections, has not registered a
candidate for the Sofia by-election.

¶3. (SBU) BOIKO BORISSOV, who resigned as Interior Ministry Chief
Secretary last month over disagreements with the new Socialist
Interior Minister (Ref. C), has consistently led opinion polls over
the past four years.  His Armani-clad tough-guy image, plain
language and close ties with local media have been key to the
popularity of the former firefighter and national karate champion.
Even after quitting the ministry, Borissov continues to boast about
his successful police operations, stressing his ties with the
Western security services.  His opponents, however, point to his
past connections with strong-arm groups and unsavory business
interests.  The charismatic general, who previously served as a
bodyguard for ex-PM Simeon Saxe-Coburg, portrays himself as an
alternative to the party candidates and the political status quo.
He told us in a recent meeting he planned to use the Sofia race to
jumpstart a career on a national level, with future plans possibly
including the launch of a new political party.

¶4. (SBU) TATYANA DONCHEVA, the Socialist Party candidate, has been
an MP since 1997 and is arguably one of the boldest figures within
the BSP.  She is respected and feared for her rhetorical skills and
sometimes sharp language, which she uses to attack both political
opponents and her own party leaders.  A former prosecutor and
attorney, Doncheva's criticism of the old guard in the Socialist
Party has shaped her image as a rebel within her own group.  Most
notably, she openly questioned PM Sergei Stanishev's nomination,
saying he lacked the experience for the job and could be easily
manipulated.  Many perceive her mayoral candidacy as an attempt by
the BSP leadership to at least partially marginalize her.  Doncheva
may also attract support from centrist and even some center-right
voters.  In many ways, Doncheva appears as the candidate most
interested in actually tackling the problems Sofia's next mayor
must face.  At the same time, however, she appears too bold for the
old-fashioned ex-communists, who may prefer to back Borissov or
stay home.

¶5. (SBU) MILEN VELCHEV, the former Finance Minister who led a team
of Western-educated reformers in Simeon Saxe-Coburg's government,
entered the race after an 11th-hour decision by the ex-king about
the NMSS nomination.  A former investment banker who served as a
vice-president of Merrill Lynch in London before taking office as a
minister in 2001, Velchev has gained respect both at home and
abroad for his sound macroeconomic policies.  One of the most
popular ministers in the previous government, he has developed a
reputation as a responsible politician loyal to ex-PM Simeon.
Simeon recently named him an NMSS deputy chairman.  Velchev enjoys
the support of well-educated young voters but his inability to talk
in plain language about Sofia's day-to-day problems (stray dogs and
garbage collection and the like) make it difficult for him to
connect with the average voter.

¶6. (SBU) SVETOSLAV GAVRIISKI, a respected financier who served as
Central Bank Governor in 1997-2003, is the candidate of the
Democrats for Strong Bulgaria (DSB), the center-right party of ex-
PM Ivan Kostov, which enjoys considerable support in Sofia.
Gavriiski is widely credited for introducing in 1997 the currency
board regime, which laid the groundwork for Bulgaria's current
financial stability.  His impressive record as central bank chief
is recognized even by his opponents in the race.  The media-shy
Gavriiski, who lacks the speaking skills and charisma of his
opponents, appeals to a highly-educated segment of Sofia voters and
has difficulty reaching out to voters beyond the DSB base.
¶7. (SBU) MINKO GERDZHIKOV, the nominee of the center-right Union of
Democratic Forces (UDF) and four smaller center-right groups, has
served as acting Mayor since former Mayor Sofianski quit in May to
launch his campaign for parliament.  A former deputy economy
minister, Gerdzhikov has also served as commercial attach in
Greece and briefly worked as an advisor to the energy arm of
controversial business conglomerate Multigroup.  Unlike other
candidates, Gerdzhikov is already familiar with Sofia's problems
and has a detailed plan to address them.  Compared to his rivals,
however, he is the least known to the public.

BORISSOV RETAINS LEAD, BUT SURPRISES POSSIBLE

¶8. (SBU) All recent opinion surveys show Borissov as the
frontrunner in the Sofia race, although his strong lead over the
Socialist candidate is shrinking.  The three center-right
candidates are almost on par.  An opinion poll published October 19
by the Center for Public Opinion Research shows Borissov with 35
percent of the vote, followed by Doncheva with 17.4 percent,
Velchev (8.4 percent), Gavriiski (8.4 percent) and Gerdzhikov (7.5
percent).  Analysts note, however, that support for Borissov is
soft and polls are unreliable.

ELECTION RULES AND PROCEDURES

¶9. (U) In addition to Sofia, mayoral by-elections will be held in
seven other towns, the largest of which are Rousse and Razgrad in
northern Bulgaria.  The elections are preceded by a 25-day campaign
which began October 3.  Election results will be announced by
municipal electoral commissions within 72 hours of the 8 p.m. poll
closing.  Where no mayoral candidate wins more than 50 percent of
the vote in the first round, a run-off will be held a week later
between the two front-runners.  The winner in the run-off is
determined by a simple majority.  The mayors will serve until the
next regular local elections -- due in the autumn of 2007 --
instead of a full four-year term.  Bulgarians living abroad do not
vote in municipal elections.

ELECTION UNLIKELY TO AFFECT COALITION STABILITY

¶10. (SBU) COMMENT: The Sofia race will likely come down to a battle
between the popular Borissov and the Socialist candidate, but a
surprise strong showing by any of the main center-right candidates
is possible.  Borissov has added an element of unpredictability to
the race, which will almost certainly be decided by a run-off.
Whatever the outcome, analysts and party insiders say the Sofia
election is not likely to affect the near-term stability of the
ruling coalition, particularly since the nominees of the Socialist
Party and Simeon's movement are unlikely to face each other in a
run-off.

LEVINE