VZCZCXYZ0015
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSK #1231/01 2801046
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 071046Z OCT 05
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3122
INFO RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 3164
RUEHKV/AMEMBASSY KIEV 2942
RUEHVL/AMEMBASSY VILNIUS 3386
RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 3050
RUEHRA/AMEMBASSY RIGA 1430
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 0690
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS MINSK 001231 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT ALSO FOR INR 
KIEV ALSO FOR USAID 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL BO
SUBJECT: New IISEPS Poll:  Lukashenko Will Win, 
But People Want a Change 
 
Refs: A) Minsk 1205, B) Minsk 1192 
 
¶1. Summary:  Head of the IISEPS polling service delivered 
his recent survey results to Ambassador on September 30. 
Similar to other polls, IISEPS confirmed that Lukashenko 
enjoys a large lead over his opposition and is trusted by 
the majority.  However, many of the respondents indicated it 
was time for a new face as president, although they were not 
ready to protest in the street.  Respondents distrust the 
opposition, but at the same time would like to know more 
about the opposition leaders, policies, and activities.  Few 
know of the Congress of Democratic Forces which took place 
October 1-2 (Ref A) and more knew of Shushkevich and Lebedko 
than the newly elected 10+ candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich. 
Most of those polled agreed that Belarusians are afraid to 
express their political views and only one third believes 
the social-economic situation will improve in the next few 
years.  Animosity towards the U.S. is at a high, but 
attitudes towards Americans as a people remain friendly. 
Most respondents have little access to foreign or 
independent sources of information and many indicate they 
would listen to broadcasts about Belarus from surrounding 
countries.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. On September 30, head of the IISEPS polling service Oleg 
Manaev gave Ambassador the results of his September survey. 
IISEPS polled 1504 people, asking questions about the 
presidential elections, quality of life, and other social 
issues.  Below are the results. 
 
The People's Trust 
----------------------- 
 
¶3. Manaev noted how 54 percent of respondents trusted 
Lukashenko whereas 32.4 percent did not and 13.5 percent did 
not comment.  Similar to NOVAK's recent polling (Ref B), 
Belarusians trust the Orthodox Church and army more so than 
the president.  The opposition remains the most distrusted: 
 
                              Trust    Distrust   No Answer 
                              -----    --------   --------- 
 
Government Press              55.3(%)    33.3       11.4 
Human Rights Groups           35.3       31.1       33.5 
International Groups          38.7       36.2       25.1 
     (i.e. UN, OSCE, EU) 
Government of Belarus         41.3       42.8       15.9 
Independent Press             38.5       43.2       18.3 
Opposition                    15.2       60.0       24.8 
 
The President's Inevitable Victory 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶4. If elections were held tomorrow, 47.3 percent of the 
respondents would vote for Lukashenko.  Anatoly Lebedko, 
Stanislav Shushkevich, and Vladimir Frolov were distant 
seconds with 3.5, 2.9, and 2.5 percent respectively. 
Aleksandr Milinkevich, the opposition's single candidate, 
only received 1.4 percent.  Even with the massive electoral 
fraud that took place during the October 2004 referendum 
vote, IISEPS revealed that 46.8 percent of respondents did 
vote to allow Lukashenko a third term.  Manaev explained 
that this figure has been consistent in all IISEPS polling. 
According to respondents, the presidential candidate who 
continues on Belarus' current path, supports integration 
with Russia, and rules with a "heavy hand" would win the 
next election. 
 
¶5. Even though seventy-two percent of respondents do not 
doubt Lukashenko will win the 2006 election, many do not 
support Lukashenko and wish to see a new person in office. 
[Comment: Note the large percent of respondents who 
refrained from answering.] 
 
"In your opinion, has Lukashenko done such a good job 
fulfilling his obligations as a president that he should be 
elected again, or do you believe it is time to give someone 
else a chance to fulfill presidential obligations?" 
 
Answer                              % 
 
------                             ---- 
 
Give Someone Else a Chance         44.8 
Elect Lukashenko Again             44.3 
No Answer                          10.9 
 
"Not long ago in an interview on Russian television, 
Lukashenko said, "I am convinced that 99 percent of the 
Belarusian people consider their president uncorrupt and 
honest."  Do you agree with this? 
 
Answer                              % 
------                             ---- 
 
Yes                                43.9 
No                                 41.2 
No Answer                          14.9 
 
"Not long ago when speaking about the presidential election, 
Lukashenko said, "Excuse me for my immodesty, but I think 
that people support me.  Why choose someone who is unknown? 
Why have an unnecessary change? - that is what every person 
thinks."  Do you agree with this?" 
 
Answer                              % 
------                             ---- 
 
Yes                                50.2 
No                                 40.6 
No Answer                           9.2 
 
"In your opinion, will the 2006 presidential election be 
free and fair?" 
 
Answer                              % 
------                             ---- 
 
Yes                                44.5 
No                                 39.1 
No Answer                          16.4 
 
"Who or what could hinder Lukashenko from winning the 
presidential elections?"  (more than one answer) 
 
Answer                              % 
------                             ---- 
No one/Nothing                     34.6 
Worsening Economic Situation       20.5 
The West                           18.5 
Belarusians wish for a democratic 
change                             16.5 
The opposition's single candidate   7.6 
Russia                              3.4 
 
Budding Interest in the Opposition? 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶6. IISEPS survey indicated that 74.7 percent of respondents 
had not heard of the opposition's Congress of Democratic 
Forces and 90.7 percent did not know anyone who participated 
in the nominating of candidates.  However, many knew or had 
heard of several opposition leaders: 
 
"Which of the politicians have you heard of?"  (more than 
one answer) 
 
Answer                              % 
------                             ---- 
 
¶S. Shushkevich                     50.8 
¶A. Lebedko                         30.5 
¶V. Frolov                          24.2 
¶S. Kalyakin                        16.4 
¶A. Voitovich                       14.0 
¶A. Kozulin                         13.3 
¶A. Klimov                          11.2 
¶A. Milinkevich                     10.2 
 
¶7. When asked whether they believe in the Congress' 
decisions and would support the single candidate, 24 percent 
 
replied "no" and 10.3 percent replied "yes."  However, 53.3 
percent answered that they would "look at the situation" and 
an addition 12.4 percent did not answer.  If the respondents 
had participated in the Congress, 8.7 percent would have 
voted for Shushkevich, 5.9 percent for Lebedko, 4.4 percent 
for Frolov, and two percent for Milinkevich.  Sixty percent 
did not answer.  IISEPS discovered that 57.6 percent of 
respondents believe that there should be an opposition to 
the authorities in Belarus and 50 percent would like to know 
more about the opposition, political parties, leaders, 
platforms, etc.  Thirty-five percent of those polled did not 
support GOB actions to prevent gatherings or the Congress 
from taking place in Belarus while only 12 percent agreed 
with the GOB. 
 
No Will to Make a Change 
------------------------ 
 
¶8. IISEPS asked the respondents if Belarusians were ready to 
express their political views openly.  Whereas 20 percent 
believe Belarusians are able to express their political 
opinions without fear, 72.8 percent believe that people are 
too afraid to do so: 
 
Answer                            % 
------                           ---- 
 
No one is afraid to express 
his/her opinion                  20.6 
Few people are afraid            22.2 
Many people are afraid           37.1 
Everyone is afraid               13.5 
No answer                        6.6 
 
¶9. Few respondents (14.5 percent) believe that Lukashenko 
could be removed from power through a "color revolution" 
similar to those in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzia and 82.4 
percent are not ready to take part in any such revolution. 
 
Belarus on Right Path, But No Improvements To Date 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶10. The majority of respondents (53.4 percent) believe 
Belarus is developing and is on the right path while 30.2 
percent disagree and 16.4 percent did not answer.  However, 
they did admit that they were facing socio-economic problems 
in their daily lives. 
 
"How has your material situation changed in the last three 
months?" 
 
Answer                            % 
------                           ---- 
 
Has improved                     17.5 
Has not changed                  61.4 
Has worsened                     19.8 
No answer                         1.3 
 
[Note: Manaev said the percentage of those who believe their 
situation has worsened has increased since the last poll.] 
 
"What are the most serious problems you have faced in 2005?" 
(more than one answer) 
 
Answer                            % 
------                           ---- 
 
Material problems 
  (price rises, tariffs, etc)    50.3 
Health problems                  15.2 
Unemployment                     11.9 
Social-domestic problems          9.5 
Personal and family problems      9.3 
Housing problems                  8.5 
Problems with health services     7.2 
Problems with education           6.3 
Problems with laws and order      5.8 
Problems with human rights        3.3 
Corruption and bureaucracy        3.0 
 
Other                            12.6 
No problems                       3.1 
 
"In your opinion, how will the social-economic situation in 
Belarus change in the next few years?" 
 
Answer                            % 
------                           ---- 
 
Will get better                  30.9 
No change                        45.1 
Will worsen                      14.9 
No answer                         9.1 
 
Cold Shoulder to the U.S.? 
-------------------------- 
 
¶11. IISEPS asked the respondents to choose five countries 
that they believe are friendly and not friendly towards 
Belarus: 
 
Friendly        %          Unfriendly        % 
--------       ----        ----------       ---- 
 
Russia         71.4        U.S.             56.0 
Ukraine        33.8        Poland           28.9 
China          21.9        Latvia           23.8 
Kazakhstan     21.0        Lithuania        22.6 
Germany        20.4        Britain          13.9 
 
¶12. Manaev explained that the negative attitude towards the 
U.S. did not exist five years ago.  The statistics above 
also correspond to polling conducted in Russia.  More 
Belarusians (5.1 percent) viewed North Korea as friendlier 
than the U.S. (2.6 percent).  44.4 percent believe the West 
considers Belarus an enemy, but an almost equal percentage 
(42.6) disagrees.  The attitude towards Americans as a 
people, however, is not as harsh: 
 
"What level of a relationship with representatives of the 
following nationalities is acceptable to you?" 
 
Answer    Russian  Ukrainian  Polish  Westerners  Americans 
------    -------  ---------  ------  ----------  --------- 
 
Family 
relations   52.4     30.9      29.0      17.0       11.0 
 
Work 
together    16.7     21.3      23.5      23.7       22.3 
 
Live in 
vicinity    15.1     26.0      23.6      21.9       17.1 
 
Live in 
one city     4.6      7.6       7.5      12.7       11.4 
 
Live in 
Belarus      7.4      9.9       11.9     20.1       31.5 
 
Unions 
------ 
 
¶13. Fifty percent of respondents believe Russia and Belarus 
should form a union with close political and economic ties 
while maintaining separate sovereignties.  29 percent think 
the status quo is appropriate, but only 13 percent believe 
Belarus should turn over its sovereignty to Russia.  In a 
similar question, 59.2 percent of respondents favored a 
union with Russia over admittance to the EU whereas 28.6 
percent thought the opposite. 
 
Polish Problem 
-------------- 
 
¶14. The Union of Belarusian Poles (UBP) continues to be a 
topic in the local media.  Even though the state media 
blames the conflict on the West and Poland, respondents had 
different opinions: 
 
 
"In your opinion, what is the main reason for the conflict?" 
 
Answer                            % 
------                           ---- 
 
Polish and Western interference  24.4 
GOB wish to control the UBP      19.8 
Finance: Inner UBP struggle 
         for money                9.0 
UBP conference broke the law      8.7 
Other                             0.4 
No answer                        37.7 
 
Information and Communication 
----------------------------- 
 
¶15. Most respondents (79.1 percent) watch local state TV 
channels, 32.6 percent watch programs on cable, and only 9.9 
percent own satellites.  The number of respondents with 
mobile phones increased to 43.8 percent and continues to 
climb.  68 percent do not use a computer, but 33.6 percent 
use computers at work, home, or at the library.  Those who 
use computers do use the internet on an infrequent basis. 
Only four percent are online daily, seven percent are online 
several times a week, 6.6 percent several times a month, and 
2.9 percent several times a year. 
 
¶16. Forty percent of respondents listen to government radio 
programs and 23.7 listen to Belarusian FM stations on a 
daily basis.  Manaev reported that the latter figure is a 
two-fold increase.  Less than one percent listens to Radio 
Freedom in Belarusian or Russian.  When asked, however, 58.8 
percent of those polled would like to receive regular 
independent radio and television news from other countries 
(Poland, Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania).  Manaev pointed out 
that this is another figure that has increased.  As for 
Deutsche Welles broadcasts into Belarus, 36.8 percent want 
the broadcasts in Russian, 24.8 percent in both Russian and 
Belarusian, and only 8.9 percent believe the broadcasts 
should only be in Belarusian.  However, 42.4 percent trust 
that Belarusian mass of information accurately reports on 
the activities and life of Western countries.  Thirty 
percent disagreed, claiming the news portrayed the Western 
activities and life worse than what actually exists. 
 
KROL