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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 003465 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PL
SUBJECT: POLISH RIGHT VICTORIOUS IN PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION 
 
REF: A. WARSAW 3456 
 
     ¶B. WARSAW 3360 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  Preliminary results and exit polling from 
Poland's September 25 parliamentary elections indicate a 
convincing victory for the center-right Law and Justice (PiS) 
and Civic Platform (PO), who are expected to begin formal 
coalition negotiations as early as September 27.  PiS's 
narrow margin over PO means that PiS leader Jaroslaw 
Kaczynski will be prime minister, with the deputy 
premiership, the parliamentary speakership, and roughly half 
of the ministerial positions (including, most likely, foreign 
affairs, defense and finance) going to PO. Together, PiS and 
PO can expect a comfortable majority in parliament, although 
they will probably fall short of a two-thirds majority needed 
to amend the constitution. The governing SLD performed better 
than expected, taking fourth place behind the populist 
Self-Defense and ahead of the right-wing LPR and the 
Peasants' Party (PSL). PiS leaders have so far been subdued 
and magnanimous in their apparent victory (final results will 
be released mid-day September 27), while PO officials have 
reacted variously, with would-be PM Jan Rokita evincing calm 
and conciliation and others reacting more bitterly.  Both 
camps will approach coalition negotiations with the 
presidential race in mind (the first-round vote is October 
9); on election night, Kaczynski repeated his pledge to 
refuse the prime minister post if his twin brother Lech is 
elected president.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (U) With sixty percent of the vote tabulated, preliminary 
results released early September 26 show PiS winning 26.56 
percent, PO 24.08 percent, Self-Defense 12.44 percent, SLD 
10.94 percent, LPR 7.83 percent, and PSL 7.11 percent.  These 
figures correspond roughly with most exit polls, but of 
course can be expected to change somewhat as additional 
returns are counted.  The State Electoral Commission projects 
that the above results would yield 151 parliamentary seats 
for PiS and 123 for PO, giving a PiS-PO coalition about forty 
more seats than the 231 it needs for a majority (but short of 
the 307 for a two-thirds majority to amend the constitution). 
 The actual allocation of seats could vary considerably from 
this projection, however, depending on the final results to 
be released September 27.  Voter turnout was estimated at 
below 40 percent (a post-1989 record low for parliamentary 
elections), reflecting widespread public disillusionment with 
politics here. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Speaking on election night, Jaroslaw Kaczynski had 
many kind words to say about his prospective coalition 
partner and about Rokita in particular. Kaczynski declared 
that he will serve as prime minister, and that PO will get 
exactly the same deal PiS would have gotten had PO taken 
first place: the deputy PM, parliamentary speaker and half of 
the cabinet posts.  The PiS leader indicated that he could 
not imagine a government without Rokita, whom he suggested 
should serve as both deputy PM and foreign minister.  PiS 
will want two economic ministries, he said, along with the 
interior, justice, agriculture and environment ministries. 
Although Kaczynski was not explicit (except for his remark 
about Rokita as foreign minister), it is widely assumed that 
the MFA and defense ministries will go to PO, and that PO 
will fight to secure the finance ministry.  If so, Jacek 
Saryusz-Wolski remains a prime candidate for the MFA, while 
Bronislaw Komorowski is the only obvious PO choice for 
defense (although his sharp rhetoric could make him 
unacceptable to PiS). 
 
¶4. (SBU) For his part, Rokita was gracious in defeat, 
recognizing PiS's right to take the PM spot and hold the 
initiative in forming a new government.  Although evidently 
disappointed with the results, he spoke with optimism about 
the prospects for the coalition.  Other PO officials, notably 
Komorowski and Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz, were less charitable, 
evincing some bitterness at PiS and suggesting that the 
Kaczynskis should look at coalition partners among the 
protest parties (e.g. Self-Defense and LPR) if they couldn't 
work things out with PO.  Presidential candidate Donald Tusk 
(PO) was more even-handed, attempting to sound reassuring 
while at the same time raising doubts about the PiS program. 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) Polish President Kwasniewski announced that he will 
invite PO and PiS to begin formal coalition talks September 
27, following announcement of the final results.  Personnel 
decisions aside, negotiations between PO and PiS on a 
government program are bound to be difficult, especially 
given the parties' divergent positions on economic policy. 
The most significant factor affecting the pace of coalition 
talks, however, could be the upcoming presidential elections, 
which pit Lech Kaczynski against the front-running Tusk. 
Neither party has an interest in papering over differences 
between them with the presidential race in the balance; 
indeed, Jaroslaw Kaczynski indicated that he thought it 
unlikely that the government could be finalized before the 
president is elected (either October 9 or in the second round 
October 23).  According to the Polish constitution, the newly 
elected parliament must be seated by October 24, and the new 
government is usually named shortly thereafter (within two 
weeks, but as soon as possible) by the president. 
Recognizing voter apprehension about the possibility of 
identical twins serving simultaneously as head of state and 
government, Jaroslaw Kaczynski repeated his pledge to step 
aside for another PiS candidate if Lech is elected president. 
Ashe