This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L ROME 003276 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2015 
TAGS: PREL PGOV IT ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS ITALIAN POLITICS
SUBJECT: ITALY: SENATE PRESIDENT PERA WORRIED ABOUT 
BERLUSCONI'S ELECTION PROSPECTS AND THE CENTER-LEFT'S 
FOREIGN POLICY 
 
REF: A. ROME 3081 
     ¶B. STATE 180461 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Ronald Spogli for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The Ambassador met September 28 with Senate 
President Marcello Pera at Pera's request.  Pera was 
pessimistic about PM Silvio Berlusconi's ability to win next 
year's general elections, but believes there "is still time" 
to pull off a victory.  He criticized Berlusconi's failure to 
develop concrete plans, described coalition problems stemming 
from the debate over center-right leadership, and said the 
Catholic Church would play an important role in next year's 
elections.  Pera said a center-left victory would be 
disastrous for U.S. foreign policy interests; a view we 
believe is overstated.  Pera hopes to visit the U.S. again in 
January. END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (C) The Ambassador met September 28 with Senate President 
Marcello Pera, at Pera's request.  Pera expressed 
appreciation for the high-level reception he received during 
his recent trip to Washington and said that it is a sign of 
the closeness of the current U.S.-Italian bilateral 
relationship.  Pera, a close ally of PM Silvio Berlusconi, 
told the Ambassador he is pessimistic regarding next year's 
general election but said there "is still time" for the 
governing center-right coalition to achieve a victory. 
However, he said he is concerned Berlusconi believes too much 
in "miracles" and in his own charisma and that Berlusconi 
does not understand the need to deliver concrete programs. 
Pera described Berlusconi's succession problem: both National 
Alliance (AN) leader Gianfranco Fini and Union of Christian 
Democrats of the Center (UDC) leader Pier Ferdinando Casini 
aspire to replace Berlusconi and are jockeying for position 
hurting coalition unity.  According to Pera, Berlusconi needs 
to find a way to tell Fini he is next in line while 
reassuring Casini that his time will come. 
 
¶3. (C) Pera stated "values" will play an important role in 
the upcoming elections and said the Catholic Church will 
figure significantly into the political debate.  He noted, as 
an example, that the Church has already inserted itself 
actively into the recent debate over civil unions for 
homosexuals. Pera, who co-wrote a book with Pope Benedict XVI 
when he was still Cardinal Ratzinger, told the Ambassador he 
has already met twice with the new Pope. 
 
¶4. (C) In Pera's view, a future center-left government led by 
Romano Prodi would be beholden to far left politician Fausto 
Bertinotti--leading to disastrous foreign policy decisions. 
He said he is "worried" Prodi would go too far to accommodate 
Bertinotti in order to keep his government from falling. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Finally, Pera said he would like to visit the U.S. 
again in January 2006 and suggested he would like to travel 
to the west coast.  The Ambassador offered to assist in 
arranging meetings at the Hoover Institute and with 
California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. 
 
6, (C) COMMENT: Pera, a relative neophyte in politics despite 
his high position in government, is often pessimistic and 
somewhat melodramatic.  He is growing increasingly concerned 
that Berlusconi will fail to rally Italians in next year's 
elections and paints a more starkly negative picture of a 
potential center-left government's foreign policy than we 
believe is warranted.  In this meeting, Pera seemed to be 
hoping in vain the Ambassador would ask what the U.S. could 
do to prevent a center-left victory.  END COMMENT. 
SPOGLI 
 
 
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	2005ROME03276 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL