This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 003988 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/23/2015 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS KDEM KE
SUBJECT: KENYA REFERENDUM: VIOLENCE, TRIBALISM, AND 
GOVERNMENT SUPPORT 
 
REF: A. NAIROBI 3982 
 
     ¶B. NAIROBI 3863 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Michael J. Fitzpatrick for reasons 1 
.4 (b,d) 
 
¶1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  A recent announcement that the Kenyan 
government plans to throw all of its resources, financial and 
human, towards a "Yes" vote threatens the very nature of a 
free and fair referendum.  Recent violence and esculating 
tribalism surrounding the referendum campaigns further 
threaten to undermine the democratic exercise.  END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------- 
Conflicting Loyalties 
--------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  Poloff attended a September 21 "No" rally held in 
Thika, the economic capital of the Kikuyu heartland and home 
to Uhuru Kenyatta, the KANU (opposition) party Chairman and 
an ethnic Kikuyu.  The rally posed a real test of loyalties 
for Thika,s residents:  support their home-grown leader and 
oppose the draft constitution or support their elected (and 
also Kikuyu) President and support a document widely held to 
be written by and benefiting Kikuyus.  Upon entering the town 
of Thika, emboffs were greeted with pro-"Yes" graffiti on the 
streets and surrounding buildings.  Approaching the site of 
the rally, the pro-"Yes" graffiti was re-painted to create 
pro-"No" messages.  The start of the rally was disrupted by 
violent clashes when "Yes" supporters, some brandishing 
machetes, attacked the "No" audience gathered at the rally. 
Several people were injured before order was restored. 
Poloff noticed a heavy police presence for the duration of 
the rally.  There were subsequently widespread complaints 
that the police had only stood by when the "Yes" supporters 
moved in to disrupt the rally. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Despite the earlier fracas and lingering threat of 
violence, those who remained to listen to the speakers did so 
with an air of reservation.  The crowd was less enthusiastic 
than at previous "Yes" and "No" rallies, but listened 
politely and occasionally responded when prompted by the 
speakers.  The most galvanizing moment of the rally came when 
Raila Odinga, Minister for Roads and Public Works, took to 
the podium to address the crowd and was able to whip them up 
for a few pro-"No" cheers. 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  Immediately following Raila came Thika,s own 
prodigal son, Uhuru.  Surprisingly, as Uhuru began to speak, 
the vast majority of the crowd turned their backs on him and 
headed for the exit.  Uhuru cut his speech short and the 
rally drew to an abrupt close.  One spectator explained to 
poloff that many of the people came to the rally curious to 
see and hear the heavy-hitters in the speakers' line-up. 
However, being familiar with Uhuru, they had no interest in 
staying to hear what he had to say as they disagreed with his 
"No" message.  An alternative explanation for the mass 
exodus, offered by a member of the "No" team, was that people 
left the rally because they feared further violence.  This 
explanation leaves something to be desired, as SWAT teams 
were present and poloff did not observe any suspicious 
activity that might support such a claim.  A great number of 
rally attendees, however, had vacated after the initial 
violence, and did not stay to hear any of the speakers. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
Accusations of State Sponsored Violence 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) During the rally, Joseph Komotho, LDP Sectary 
General and a member of Parliament, accused Internal Security 
Minister John Muchuki of supporting the pro-"Yes" hooligans 
by providing drugs and money to the hirelings to disrupt the 
"No" rally.  The "No" team repeated the accusation (extending 
it to other key allies of President Kibaki) following similar 
skirmishes at the September 22 "No" rally in Garissa. 
Further, the "No" group condemned the government for 
&state-sponsored violence8 against them and accused the 
police of bias in arresting 14 "No" supporters following the 
fracas in Thika, while releasing all of the "Yes" 
instigators. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
Government Resources Lend Support to the "Yes" Campaign 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  Both the "Yes" and "No" campaigns launched their 
respective National Referendum Committees to manage their 
referendum campaigns earlier in the week.  Embassy staff 
attended both office openings in Nairobi and noted a general 
lack of organization and poor attendance at the "Yes" 
headquarters.  By contrast the "No" office opening was 
extremely well planed and drew a greater crowd of "No" 
supporters.  The "No" camp also revealed the amount (Sh2.7 
million) and source (members of Parliament,s contributions) 
of their campaign war chest, which is a welcome development 
given that the source of campaign funding has become a hot 
topic for both sides. 
¶7.  (C)  On September 21, the Kenya National Commission on 
Human Rights, the Kenya Human Rights Commission, and the 
Electoral Commission of Kenya admonished both sides for using 
government resources for their campaigns and announced that 
they would monitor the use public resources.  However, just 
two days later, Justice and Constitutional Affairs Minister 
Kiraitu Murungi declared that the government was funding the 
"Yes" campaign since the referendum was a government project. 
 Internal Security Minister John Michuki further stated that 
the "No" team "can seek for funding from their foreign 
masters.8 (NOTE:  According to the Parliament,s Sergeant at 
Arms, rumors that the U.S. Embassy is funding the "No" 
campaign are circulating widely among Members of Parliament. 
END NOTE.)  Murungi also stated that all civil servants have 
&a duty8 to campaign for a "Yes" vote, and that anyone who 
obstructs civil servants performing this duty will be met by 
the full force of law. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
Deepening Divisions Between Ethnic Groups 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (U) The three groups also announced that they would 
monitor politicians, leaders, and radios stations for airing 
hate speeches based on ethnicity, which have been airing on 
several vernacular radio stations.  Recent comments by 
Michuki raise the disturbing specter of tribalism.  He 
remarked &you Kikuyus can sleep soundly at night and let 
your hearts not be troubled because you have Kibaki, (and 
others protecting you.8  Comments such as these serve not 
only to unify Kikuyus behind the President but also may 
deepen the Kikuyu sense of isolation as these comments 
alienate other groups. 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  COMMENT:  Appeals to ethnicity and the reception 
afforded the "No" team, and in particular Uhuru, in 
Kikuyu-populated Thika reinforce the concern that ethnic 
affiliation will play a critical role in the referendum vote. 
 Rising tribalism is even more disturbing when coupled with 
the increasing incidents of violence.  Use of government 
resources to further the "Yes" campaign has the potential to 
significantly disadvantage the "No" vote and threaten the 
very nature of a free and fair referendum. 
BELLAMY