This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BOGOTA 009321 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/28/2015 
TAGS: PGOV KJUS PINR CO
SUBJECT: UPDATE ON REELECTION: THINKING OF PLAN B 
 
REF: A. BOGOTA 8241 
     ¶B. 04 BOGOTA 12860 
 
Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood 
Reasons: 1.4 (b,d) 
 
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Summary 
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¶1.  (C) President Uribe and his team are considering 
contingency plans in the event the Constitutional Court 
strikes down reelection.  The plans that are receiving most 
attention include a public referendum that would seek to 
change the Constitution, and the casting of a separate ballot 
during March 2006 Congressional elections that would 
purportedly authorize Uribe to run in May.  The option of 
casting "null" ballots during the May presidential contest, 
and thereby causing another election with different 
candidates, would not enable Uribe to run again and would be 
a symbolic protest.  Similarly, a "national interest" ballot 
initiative appears to lack the legal 
weight to proceed.  End Summary. 
 
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Contingency Planning 
-------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Uribe supporters are considering two principal 
courses of action in the event the Court were to strike down 
reelection: 
 
-- a national referendum (the most commonly-mentioned 
option); and 
 
-- a separate ballot initiative 
 
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National Referendum 
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¶3.  (SBU) A national referendum on reelection would need to 
take place before the Presidential election on May 28.  The 
Constitution explicitly allows for Constitutional reform via 
referendum (the other two vehicles are via legislation in 
Congress or via Constitutional Convention).  In rough terms, 
a referendum can be convened by the signatures of five 
percent of voting-age adults (based on the census).  In 
addition to formal steps such as review of signatures, the 
referendum -- in particular the text of the issue to be 
decided -- would need to pass both houses of Congress, which 
would not likely be a hurdle.  A subsequent required step 
would be approval of the text by the Constitutional Court, a 
potentially more complicated step that could be drawn out by 
one or more magistrates.  Only after that could Uribe begin 
to campaign as a candidate, in the teeth of other party 
candidates, most of whom would reject the referendum.  The 
timeline for completing all the required steps would be 
disruptive and tight, but might be manageable given popular 
support for Uribe's reelection. 
 
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Separate Ballot Initiative 
-------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) President Uribe could issue a decree in the days 
before March 12 Congressional elections mandating that 
electoral authorities count separate ad hoc ballots that 
citizens could deposit along with their Congressional votes. 
The ad hoc ballot, which would be distributed at polling 
places by Uribe supporters, would simply query the 
individual's support for the option of reelection.  Provided 
that 50 percent of the total nationwide Congressional vote 
supported the reelection option, the measure would pass, and 
in theory Uribe could be on the May 28 ballot.  The above 
method was used in the 1990 Congressional election to convene 
the Convention that drafted the 1991 Constitution.  While the 
high courts subsequently ruled that the actual Presidential 
decree was unconstitutional, the court ruling nevertheless 
allowed the "will of the people" (the convening of the 
Convention) to prevail.  We would expect a complicated legal 
battle in this case. 
 
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"Null Vote" Option 
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¶5.  (SBU) The null vote option would not directly assist 
Uribe, but would be a symbolic statement of public protest. 
Electoral laws mandate that in the event blank ballots (null 
votes) attain a majority, the vote is annulled and a new 
election is required.  No existing candidate would be allowed 
to participate in the new election.  We see no likelihood 
that null votes would be a majority, nor would a null vote 
majority, in itself, enable Uribe to run again. 
 
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National Interest Initiative 
---------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) While several supporters have pushed the 
national interest initiative, our estimation is it would 
not pass legal muster.  Article 104 of the Constitution 
allows for a ballot initiative to decide issues of national 
interest.  Our legal contacts concur, however, that the 
Constitution would continue to prohibit reelection, as the 
national interest initiative would not supplant the highest 
law of the land. 
 
 
WOOD