Keep Us Strong WikiLeaks logo

Currently released so far... 251287 / 251,287

Articles

Browse latest releases

Browse by creation date

Browse by origin

A B C D F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W Y Z

Browse by tag

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
AEMR ASEC AMGT AE AS AMED AVIAN AU AF AORC AGENDA AO AR AM APER AFIN ATRN AJ ABUD ARABL AL AG AODE ALOW ADANA AADP AND APECO ACABQ ASEAN AA AFFAIRS AID AGR AY AGS AFSI AGOA AMB ARF ANET ASCH ACOA AFLU AFSN AMEX AFDB ABLD AESC AFGHANISTAN AINF AVIATION ARR ARSO ANDREW ASSEMBLY AIDS APRC ASSK ADCO ASIG AC AZ APEC AFINM ADB AP ACOTA ASEX ACKM ASUP ANTITERRORISM ADPM AINR ARABLEAGUE AGAO AORG AMTC AIN ACCOUNT ASECAFINGMGRIZOREPTU AIDAC AINT ARCH AMGTKSUP ALAMI AMCHAMS ALJAZEERA AVIANFLU AORD AOREC ALIREZA AOMS AMGMT ABDALLAH AORCAE AHMED ACCELERATED AUC ALZUGUREN ANGEL AORL ASECIR AMG AMBASSADOR AEMRASECCASCKFLOMARRPRELPINRAMGTJMXL ADM ASES ABMC AER AMER ASE AMGTHA ARNOLDFREDERICK AOPC ACS AFL AEGR ASED AFPREL AGRI AMCHAM ARNOLD AN ANATO AME APERTH ASECSI AT ACDA ASEDC AIT AMERICA AMLB AMGE ACTION AGMT AFINIZ ASECVE ADRC ABER AGIT APCS AEMED ARABBL ARC ASO AIAG ACEC ASR ASECM ARG AEC ABT ADIP ADCP ANARCHISTS AORCUN AOWC ASJA AALC AX AROC ARM AGENCIES ALBE AK AZE AOPR AREP AMIA ASCE ALANAZI ABDULRAHMEN ABDULHADI AINFCY ARMS ASECEFINKCRMKPAOPTERKHLSAEMRNS AGRICULTURE AFPK AOCR ALEXANDER ATRD ATFN ABLG AORCD AFGHAN ARAS AORCYM AVERY ALVAREZ ACBAQ ALOWAR ANTOINE ABLDG ALAB AMERICAS AFAF ASECAFIN ASEK ASCC AMCT AMGTATK AMT APDC AEMRS ASECE AFSA ATRA ARTICLE ARENA AISG AEMRBC AFR AEIR ASECAF AFARI AMPR ASPA ASOC ANTONIO AORCL ASECARP APRM AUSTRALIAGROUP ASEG AFOR AEAID AMEDI ASECTH ASIC AFDIN AGUIRRE AUNR ASFC AOIC ANTXON ASA ASECCASC ALI AORCEUNPREFPRELSMIGBN ASECKHLS ASSSEMBLY ASECVZ AI ASECPGOV ASIR ASCEC ASAC ARAB AIEA ADMIRAL AUSGR AQ AMTG ARRMZY ANC APR AMAT AIHRC AFU ADEL AECL ACAO AMEMR ADEP AV AW AOR ALL ALOUNI AORCUNGA ALNEA ASC AORCO ARMITAGE AGENGA AGRIC AEM ACOAAMGT AGUILAR AFPHUM AMEDCASCKFLO AFZAL AAA ATPDEA ASECPHUM ASECKFRDCVISKIRFPHUMSMIGEG
ETRD ETTC EU ECON EFIN EAGR EAID ELAB EINV ENIV ENRG EPET EZ ELTN ELECTIONS ECPS ET ER EG EUN EIND ECONOMICS EMIN ECIN EINT EWWT EAIR EN ENGR ES EI ETMIN EL EPA EARG EFIS ECONOMY EC EK ELAM ECONOMIC EAR ESDP ECCP ELN EUM EUMEM ECA EAP ELEC ECOWAS EFTA EXIM ETTD EDRC ECOSOC ECPSN ENVIRONMENT ECO EMAIL ECTRD EREL EDU ENERG ENERGY ENVR ETRAD EAC EXTERNAL EFIC ECIP ERTD EUC ENRGMO EINZ ESTH ECCT EAGER ECPN ELNT ERD EGEN ETRN EIVN ETDR EXEC EIAD EIAR EVN EPRT ETTF ENGY EAIDCIN EXPORT ETRC ESA EIB EAPC EPIT ESOCI ETRB EINDQTRD ENRC EGOV ECLAC EUR ELF ETEL ENRGUA EVIN EARI ESCAP EID ERIN ELAN ENVT EDEV EWWY EXBS ECOM EV ELNTECON ECE ETRDGK EPETEIND ESCI ETRDAORC EAIDETRD ETTR EMS EAGRECONEINVPGOVBN EBRD EUREM ERGR EAGRBN EAUD EFI ETRDEINVECINPGOVCS EPEC ETRO ENRGY EGAR ESSO EGAD ENV ENER EAIDXMXAXBXFFR ELA EET EINVETRD EETC EIDN ERGY ETRDPGOV EING EMINCG EINVECON EURM EEC EICN EINO EPSC ELAP ELABPGOVBN EE ESPS ETRA ECONETRDBESPAR ERICKSON EEOC EVENTS EPIN EB ECUN EPWR ENG EX EH EAIDAR EAIS ELBA EPETUN ETRDEIQ EENV ECPC ETRP ECONENRG EUEAID EWT EEB EAIDNI ESENV EADM ECN ENRGKNNP ETAD ETR ECONETRDEAGRJA ETRG ETER EDUC EITC EBUD EAIF EBEXP EAIDS EITI EGOVSY EFQ ECOQKPKO ETRGY ESF EUE EAIC EPGOV ENFR EAGRE ENRD EINTECPS EAVI ETC ETCC EIAID EAIDAF EAGREAIDPGOVPRELBN EAOD ETRDA EURN EASS EINVA EAIDRW EON ECOR EPREL EGPHUM ELTM ECOS EINN ENNP EUPGOV EAGRTR ECONCS ETIO ETRDGR EAIDB EISNAR EIFN ESPINOSA EAIDASEC ELIN EWTR EMED ETFN ETT EADI EPTER ELDIN EINVEFIN ESS ENRGIZ EQRD ESOC ETRDECD ECINECONCS EAIT ECONEAIR ECONEFIN EUNJ ENRGKNNPMNUCPARMPRELNPTIAEAJMXL ELAD EFIM ETIC EFND EFN ETLN ENGRD EWRG ETA EIN EAIRECONRP EXIMOPIC ERA ENRGJM ECONEGE ENVI ECHEVARRIA EMINETRD EAD ECONIZ EENG ELBR EWWC ELTD EAIDMG ETRK EIPR EISNLN ETEX EPTED EFINECONCS EPCS EAG ETRDKIPR ED EAIO ETRDEC ENRGPARMOTRASENVKGHGPGOVECONTSPLEAID ECONEINVEFINPGOVIZ ERNG EFINU EURFOR EWWI ELTNSNAR ETD EAIRASECCASCID EOXC ESTN EAIDAORC EAGRRP ETRDEMIN ELABPHUMSMIGKCRMBN ETRDEINVTINTCS EGHG EAIDPHUMPRELUG EAGRBTIOBEXPETRDBN EDA EPETPGOV ELAINE EUCOM EMW EFINECONEAIDUNGAGM ELB EINDETRD EMI ETRDECONWTOCS EINR ESTRADA EHUM EFNI ELABV ENR EMN EXO EWWTPRELPGOVMASSMARRBN EATO END EP EINVETC ECONEFINETRDPGOVEAGRPTERKTFNKCRMEAID ELTRN EIQ ETTW EAI ENGRG ETRED ENDURING ETTRD EAIDEGZ EOCN EINF EUPREL ENRL ECPO ENLT EEFIN EPPD ECOIN EUEAGR EISL EIDE ENRGSD EINVECONSENVCSJA EAIG ENTG EEPET EUNCH EPECO ETZ EPAT EPTE EAIRGM ETRDPREL EUNGRSISAFPKSYLESO ETTN EINVKSCA ESLCO EBMGT ENRGTRGYETRDBEXPBTIOSZ EFLU ELND EFINOECD EAIDHO EDUARDO ENEG ECONEINVETRDEFINELABETRDKTDBPGOVOPIC EFINTS ECONQH ENRGPREL EUNPHUM EINDIR EPE EMINECINECONSENVTBIONS EFINM ECRM EQ EWWTSP ECONPGOVBN
KFLO KPKO KDEM KFLU KTEX KMDR KPAO KCRM KIDE KN KNNP KG KMCA KZ KJUS KWBG KU KDMR KAWC KCOR KPAL KOMC KTDB KTIA KISL KHIV KHUM KTER KCFE KTFN KS KIRF KTIP KIRC KSCA KICA KIPR KPWR KWMN KE KGIC KGIT KSTC KACT KSEP KFRD KUNR KHLS KCRS KRVC KUWAIT KVPR KSRE KMPI KMRS KNRV KNEI KCIP KSEO KITA KDRG KV KSUM KCUL KPET KBCT KO KSEC KOLY KNAR KGHG KSAF KWNM KNUC KMNP KVIR KPOL KOCI KPIR KLIG KSAC KSTH KNPT KINL KPRP KRIM KICC KIFR KPRV KAWK KFIN KT KVRC KR KHDP KGOV KPOW KTBT KPMI KPOA KRIF KEDEM KFSC KY KGCC KATRINA KWAC KSPR KTBD KBIO KSCI KRCM KNNB KBNC KIMT KCSY KINR KRAD KMFO KCORR KW KDEMSOCI KNEP KFPC KEMPI KBTR KFRDCVISCMGTCASCKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KNPP KTTB KTFIN KBTS KCOM KFTN KMOC KOR KDP KPOP KGHA KSLG KMCR KJUST KUM KMSG KHPD KREC KIPRTRD KPREL KEN KCSA KCRIM KGLB KAKA KWWT KUNP KCRN KISLPINR KLFU KUNC KEDU KCMA KREF KPAS KRKO KNNC KLHS KWAK KOC KAPO KTDD KOGL KLAP KECF KCRCM KNDP KSEAO KCIS KISM KREL KISR KISC KKPO KWCR KPFO KUS KX KWCI KRFD KWPG KTRD KH KLSO KEVIN KEANE KACW KWRF KNAO KETTC KTAO KWIR KVCORR KDEMGT KPLS KICT KWGB KIDS KSCS KIRP KSTCPL KDEN KLAB KFLOA KIND KMIG KPPAO KPRO KLEG KGKG KCUM KTTP KWPA KIIP KPEO KICR KNNA KMGT KCROM KMCC KLPM KNNPGM KSIA KSI KWWW KOMS KESS KMCAJO KWN KTDM KDCM KCM KVPRKHLS KENV KCCP KGCN KCEM KEMR KWMNKDEM KNNPPARM KDRM KWIM KJRE KAID KWMM KPAONZ KUAE KTFR KIF KNAP KPSC KSOCI KCWI KAUST KPIN KCHG KLBO KIRCOEXC KI KIRCHOFF KSTT KNPR KDRL KCFC KLTN KPAOKMDRKE KPALAOIS KESO KKOR KSMT KFTFN KTFM KDEMK KPKP KOCM KNN KISLSCUL KFRDSOCIRO KINT KRG KWMNSMIG KSTCC KPAOY KFOR KWPR KSEPCVIS KGIV KSEI KIL KWMNPHUMPRELKPAOZW KQ KEMS KHSL KTNF KPDD KANSOU KKIV KFCE KTTC KGH KNNNP KK KSCT KWNN KAWX KOMCSG KEIM KTSD KFIU KDTB KFGM KACP KWWMN KWAWC KSPA KGICKS KNUP KNNO KISLAO KTPN KSTS KPRM KPALPREL KPO KTLA KCRP KNMP KAWCK KCERS KDUM KEDM KTIALG KWUN KPTS KPEM KMEPI KAWL KHMN KCRO KCMR KPTD KCROR KMPT KTRF KSKN KMAC KUK KIRL KEM KSOC KBTC KOM KINP KDEMAF KTNBT KISK KRM KWBW KBWG KNNPMNUC KNOP KSUP KCOG KNET KWBC KESP KMRD KEBG KFRDKIRFCVISCMGTKOCIASECPHUMSMIGEG KPWG KOMCCO KRGY KNNF KPROG KJAN KFRED KPOKO KM KWMNCS KMPF KJWC KJU KSMIG KALR KRAL KDGOV KPA KCRMJA KCRI KAYLA KPGOV KRD KNNPCH KFEM KPRD KFAM KALM KIPRETRDKCRM KMPP KADM KRFR KMWN KWRG KTIAPARM KTIAEUN KRDP KLIP KDDEM KTIAIC KWKN KPAD KDM KRCS KWBGSY KEAI KIVP KPAOPREL KUNH KTSC KIPT KNP KJUSTH KGOR KEPREL KHSA KGHGHIV KNNR KOMH KRCIM KWPB KWIC KINF KPER KILS KA KNRG KCSI KFRP KLFLO KFE KNPPIS KQM KQRDQ KERG KPAOPHUM KSUMPHUM KVBL KARIM KOSOVO KNSD KUIR KWHG KWBGXF KWMNU KPBT KKNP KERF KCRT KVIS KWRC KVIP KTFS KMARR KDGR KPAI KDE KTCRE KMPIO KUNRAORC KHOURY KAWS KPAK KOEM KCGC KID KVRP KCPS KIVR KBDS KWOMN KIIC KTFNJA KARZAI KMVP KHJUS KPKOUNSC KMAR KIBL KUNA KSA KIS KJUSAF KDEV KPMO KHIB KIRD KOUYATE KIPRZ KBEM KPAM KDET KPPD KOSCE KJUSKUNR KICCPUR KRMS KWMNPREL KWMJN KREISLER KWM KDHS KRV KPOV KWMNCI KMPL KFLD KWWN KCVM KIMMITT KCASC KOMO KNATO KDDG KHGH KRF KSCAECON KWMEN KRIC
PREL PINR PGOV PHUM PTER PE PREF PARM PBTS PINS PHSA PK PL PM PNAT PHAS PO PROP PGOVE PA PU POLITICAL PPTER POL PALESTINIAN PHUN PIN PAMQ PPA PSEC POLM PBIO PSOE PDEM PAK PF PKAO PGOVPRELMARRMOPS PMIL PV POLITICS PRELS POLICY PRELHA PIRN PINT PGOG PERSONS PRC PEACE PROCESS PRELPGOV PROV PFOV PKK PRE PT PIRF PSI PRL PRELAF PROG PARMP PERL PUNE PREFA PP PGOB PUM PROTECTION PARTIES PRIL PEL PAGE PS PGO PCUL PLUM PIF PGOVENRGCVISMASSEAIDOPRCEWWTBN PMUC PCOR PAS PB PKO PY PKST PTR PRM POUS PRELIZ PGIC PHUMS PAL PNUC PLO PMOPS PHM PGOVBL PBK PELOSI PTE PGOVAU PNR PINSO PRO PLAB PREM PNIR PSOCI PBS PD PHUML PERURENA PKPA PVOV PMAR PHUMCF PUHM PHUH PRELPGOVETTCIRAE PRT PROPERTY PEPFAR PREI POLUN PAR PINSF PREFL PH PREC PPD PING PQL PINSCE PGV PREO PRELUN POV PGOVPHUM PINRES PRES PGOC PINO POTUS PTERE PRELKPAO PRGOV PETR PGOVEAGRKMCAKNARBN PPKO PARLIAMENT PEPR PMIG PTBS PACE PETER PMDL PVIP PKPO POLMIL PTEL PJUS PHUMNI PRELKPAOIZ PGOVPREL POGV PEREZ POWELL PMASS PDOV PARN PG PPOL PGIV PAIGH PBOV PETROL PGPV PGOVL POSTS PSO PRELEU PRELECON PHUMPINS PGOVKCMABN PQM PRELSP PRGO PATTY PRELPGOVEAIDECONEINVBEXPSCULOIIPBTIO PGVO PROTESTS PRELPLS PKFK PGOVEAIDUKNOSWGMHUCANLLHFRSPITNZ PARAGRAPH PRELGOV POG PTRD PTERM PBTSAG PHUMKPAL PRELPK PTERPGOV PAO PRIVATIZATION PSCE PPAO PGOVPRELPHUMPREFSMIGELABEAIDKCRMKWMN PARALYMPIC PRUM PKPRP PETERS PAHO PARMS PGREL PINV POINS PHUMPREL POREL PRELNL PHUMPGOV PGOVQL PLAN PRELL PARP PROVE PSOC PDD PRELNP PRELBR PKMN PGKV PUAS PRELTBIOBA PBTSEWWT PTERIS PGOVU PRELGG PHUMPRELPGOV PFOR PEPGOV PRELUNSC PRAM PICES PTERIZ PREK PRELEAGR PRELEUN PHUME PHU PHUMKCRS PRESL PRTER PGOF PARK PGOVSOCI PTERPREL PGOVEAID PGOVPHUMKPAO PINSKISL PREZ PGOVAF PARMEUN PECON PINL POGOV PGOVLO PIERRE PRELPHUM PGOVPZ PGOVKCRM PBST PKPAO PHUMHUPPS PGOVPOL PASS PPGOV PROGV PAGR PHALANAGE PARTY PRELID PGOVID PHUMR PHSAQ PINRAMGT PSA PRELM PRELMU PIA PINRPE PBTSRU PARMIR PEDRO PNUK PVPR PINOCHET PAARM PRFE PRELEIN PINF PCI PSEPC PGOVSU PRLE PDIP PHEM PRELB PORG PGGOC POLG POPDC PGOVPM PWMN PDRG PHUMK PINB PRELAL PRER PFIN PNRG PRED POLI PHUMBO PHYTRP PROLIFERATION PHARM PUOS PRHUM PUNR PENA PGOVREL PETRAEUS PGOVKDEM PGOVENRG PHUS PRESIDENT PTERKU PRELKSUMXABN PGOVSI PHUMQHA PKISL PIR PGOVZI PHUMIZNL PKNP PRELEVU PMIN PHIM PHUMBA PUBLIC PHAM PRELKPKO PMR PARTM PPREL PN PROL PDA PGOVECON PKBL PKEAID PERM PRELEZ PRELC PER PHJM PGOVPRELPINRBN PRFL PLN PWBG PNG PHUMA PGOR PHUMPTER POLINT PPEF PKPAL PNNL PMARR PAC PTIA PKDEM PAUL PREG PTERR PTERPRELPARMPGOVPBTSETTCEAIRELTNTC PRELJA POLS PI PNS PAREL PENV PTEROREP PGOVM PINER PBGT PHSAUNSC PTERDJ PRELEAID PARMIN PKIR PLEC PCRM PNET PARR PRELETRD PRELBN PINRTH PREJ PEACEKEEPINGFORCES PEMEX PRELZ PFLP PBPTS PTGOV PREVAL PRELSW PAUM PRF PHUMKDEM PATRICK PGOVKMCAPHUMBN PRELA PNUM PGGV PGOVSMIGKCRMKWMNPHUMCVISKFRDCA PBT PIND PTEP PTERKS PGOVJM PGOT PRELMARR PGOVCU PREV PREFF PRWL PET PROB PRELPHUMP PHUMAF PVTS PRELAFDB PSNR PGOVECONPRELBU PGOVZL PREP PHUMPRELBN PHSAPREL PARCA PGREV PGOVDO PGON PCON PODC PRELOV PHSAK PSHA PGOVGM PRELP POSCE PGOVPTER PHUMRU PINRHU PARMR PGOVTI PPEL PMAT PAN PANAM PGOVBO PRELHRC

Browse by classification

Community resources

courage is contagious

Viewing cable 05WARSAW3151, Economic Impact of EU Accession on Poland

If you are new to these pages, please read an introduction on the structure of a cable as well as how to discuss them with others. See also the FAQs

Understanding cables
Every cable message consists of three parts:
  • The top box shows each cables unique reference number, when and by whom it originally was sent, and what its initial classification was.
  • The middle box contains the header information that is associated with the cable. It includes information about the receiver(s) as well as a general subject.
  • The bottom box presents the body of the cable. The opening can contain a more specific subject, references to other cables (browse by origin to find them) or additional comment. This is followed by the main contents of the cable: a summary, a collection of specific topics and a comment section.
To understand the justification used for the classification of each cable, please use this WikiSource article as reference.

Discussing cables
If you find meaningful or important information in a cable, please link directly to its unique reference number. Linking to a specific paragraph in the body of a cable is also possible by copying the appropriate link (to be found at theparagraph symbol). Please mark messages for social networking services like Twitter with the hash tags #cablegate and a hash containing the reference ID e.g. #05WARSAW3151.
Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
05WARSAW3151 2005-08-19 09:10 2011-08-30 01:44 UNCLASSIFIED Embassy Warsaw
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 WARSAW 003151 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/NCE TARA ERATH AND MICHAEL SESSUMS 
USDOC FOR 4232/ITA/MAC/EUR/JBURGESS AND MWILSON 
TREASURY FOR OASIA ERIC MEYER AND MATTHEW GAERTNER 
FRANKFURT FOR TREASURY JIM WALLAR 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: ECON EFIN PL EUN
SUBJECT:  Economic Impact of EU Accession on Poland 
 
CORRECTION TO WARSAW 3130/3131, PARA 26, LAST SENTENCE. 
 
This cable is sensitive but unclassified and NOT for 
Internet distribution. 
 
------- 
Summary 
------- 
 
1.  (SUB)  Sixteen months after Poland's EU accession, post 
surveyed a number of government officials and economic 
experts on the impact of accession.  Despite some caveats, 
there appears to be consensus that Poland has adapted 
smoothly to the EU's common market.  Dramatic export growth 
has fueled economic expansion even while the zloty has 
significantly appreciated.  Meanwhile, inflation is under 
control, foreign investment is on the rise, and unemployment 
is beginning to drop off.  Nevertheless, in many ways it is 
too early to evaluate the effect of accession.  It remains 
to be seen whether Poland will be able to sustain economic 
growth, cope with continuing emigration, and smoothly 
conform to some of the EU's more problematic regulations. 
However, on the eve of parliamentary and presidential 
elections, economic experts remain optimistic about Poland's 
future prospects in the EU's open market.  End summary. 
 
-------- 
Currency 
-------- 
 
2.  (SUB)  A key development in the Polish economy over the 
past year and a half has been the significant strengthening 
of the zloty.  Fueled by surging Polish exports, the zloty 
experienced sustained growth from March 2004 to March 2005 
against both the dollar and the euro.  In this 12-month 
period, the zloty appreciated by 24.6 percent against the 
dollar, according to Polish government data.   Since April 
2005, however, the zloty has weakened somewhat, in step with 
the weakening Euro. 
 
3.  (SBU)  Meanwhile, the National Bank (NBP) hopes to keep 
Poland on track for rapid Euro adoption.  NBP macroeconomic 
specialist Lucyna Sztaba said the Bank should enter the 
eurozone as soon as possible, though strong government 
support will be necessary to do so.  The Bank initially set 
the goal of adopting the euro in 2008-2009, though Sztaba 
acknowledges 2008 may now be out of reach.  The National 
Bank is concerned that Poland will be left behind in the 
race for investment by countries such as Slovakia and the 
Baltics, which are further along with preparations for the 
euro.  Sztaba thinks the next government--expected to be a 
coalition of the Citizens' Platform (PO) and Law and Justice 
(PiS) parties--may not be as keen on catching up, with PiS 
somewhat opposed and PO reportedly ambivalent about quickly 
joining the euro zone.  One of the arguments being used 
against rapid euro adoption is a recent IMF report 
suggesting the euro is not as important for Poland as for 
its neighbors because its market is so much larger. 
 
--------------- 
Economic Growth 
--------------- 
 
4.  (SBU)  The Polish economy expanded rapidly in the months 
prior to EU accession, with 6.9 percent annualized GDP 
growth in first quarter 2004.  This growth, which was 
accompanied by a three percent real increase in salaries in 
the same quarter, may have been fueled in part by consumers' 
increased demand for durable goods in anticipation of EU 
accession-related price increases. 
 
5.  (SBU)  GDP growth continued after accession, though at a 
more modest 3-4 percent pace.  The driving force behind this 
growth was agriculture and food processing, which benefited 
from stronger-than-expected demand for Polish products in 
the EU, an effect amplified by the weakness of the zloty at 
the time of accession.  In 2004, food exports to EU-15 
countries increased by 60 percent.  Poland also benefited 
from nearly EUR 1.6 billion in net EU transfer payments in 
2004, a figure the Poles expect to more than double in 2005. 
First quarter 2005 statistics estimate growth at three 
percent, which represents a slight slowing of the initial 
post-accession export surge, due in part to the 
strengthening zloty.  Consensus estimates put Poland's GDP 
growth in 2005 and 2006 in the 4-5 percent range. 
 
------------ 
Unemployment 
------------ 
 
6.  (SBU)  Analysts agree it is too soon for EU accession to 
have had a dramatic impact on Poland's high unemployment 
rate, which has hovered around 19 percent since 2002. 
Economic analyst Bohdan Wyznikiewicz thinks the Polish work 
force is currently in its second major phase of 
restructuring since the fall of communism.  Labor 
productivity is increasing rapidly, and workers continue to 
leave farms.  Roughly 16.5 percent of the work force is now 
employed in agriculture, down from 20 percent in the mid- 
1990's. 
 
7.  (SBU)  Unemployment fell from 20.6 to 19.5 percent in 
the months leading up to accession, but the rate remained 
stable for the rest of 2004.  In the first half of 2005, 
however, the unemployment rate has dropped from 19.5 to 18.0 
percent.  Together, the 2.6 percent decrease in unemployment 
since the beginning of 2004 is the most significant drop 
since 1997.  Analysts suggest that increasing demand for 
Polish exports, coupled with opportunities for migration, 
should contribute to a continuing decline. 
 
--------- 
Inflation 
--------- 
 
8.  (SBU)  Post-accession inflation was one of the most 
feared consequences of joining the EU in Poland, and 2004 
statistics bear out that a greater-than-expected 
inflationary effect--averaging 4-5 percent (annualized) in 
the months immediately following accession--was observed. 
Price increases were driven by EU demand for agricultural 
products, which had a dramatic effect on certain goods. 
(For example, sugar prices rose 67 percent; beef prices 40 
percent.)  Overall, food prices increased by 7.8 percent, 
which had a powerful effect on public perceptions given the 
30 percent proportion of Polish household expenditures 
devoted to food purchases.  External factors--in particular, 
high oil prices--had an effect as well.  Only a few prices, 
mainly for technology and clothing, fell. 
 
9.  (SBU)  In 2005, in contrast, prices again stabilized as 
the market quickly adjusted to the new export dynamics. 
Food prices actually dropped in February-April 2005, due in 
part to the stronger zloty.  Current expectations are for 
continued price stability, with an end-of-year outcome 
perhaps below the National Bank's forecast of two percent. 
Many analysts suggested 1.2 percent annual inflation at year 
end is possible.  This would be comfortably below the 
government's long-term 2.5 percent target, in compliance 
with the Maastricht guidelines. 
 
------------------ 
Foreign Investment 
------------------ 
 
10.  (SBU)  Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into 
Poland increased by 22.4 percent in 2004 to reach USDOL7.9 
billion, the highest level since the year 2000.  Polish 
Foreign Investment Agency (PAIiIZ) specialist Aleksandra 
Prachowska explains that the current inflows primarily 
represent reinvestment, since most major foreign players 
have long since entered the Polish market. 
 
11.  (SBU)  According to Prachowska, the effect of EU 
accession on FDI is unclear and nearly impossible to 
measure.  Statistics cannot yet be gathered on investment 
since accession, as new investments will take several years 
to be realized and measured.  However, Prachowska said she 
has personally noted a sharp increase in the number of 
inquiries from potential investors since accession.  It 
remains to be seen whether these enquiries will translate 
into actual deals, but PAIiIZ Director Andrzej Zdebski is 
confident that 2005 FDI would top the 2004 level. 
 
12.  (SBU)  According to a recently-published report by 
Ernst and Young, Poland is tied with Germany as the most 
attractive destination for foreign investment in Europe. 
The availability of cheap land and a large, relatively 
skilled labor force--in contrast to some neighboring 
countries, like Slovakia, that may soon face labor shortages- 
-are among Polish strengths that are contributing to the 
increase in FDI.  However, inadequate infrastructure and a 
high level of bureaucracy were highlighted in the report as 
areas needing significant improvement. 
 
13.  (SBU)  Officials said the lack of centralization in the 
Polish investment system is also a liability.  The Slovakian 
government's investment agency, for example, is prepared to 
immediately discuss incentive packages with firms 
considering investment, while PAIiIZ does not have the same 
capability and occasionally has difficulty cooperating with 
regional governments.  PiS and PO economic advisers 
Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz and Rafal Antczak, who are expected 
to play an influential role in Polish economic policy 
following this year's election, both agreed that reforming 
PAIiIZ and elevating the organization to a higher 
hierarchical level are among their priorities, alongside 
infrastructure development. 
 
--------- 
Migration 
--------- 
 
14.  (SBU)  Gloomy predictions of a massive brain drain and 
high levels of emigration to the EU countries that opened 
their borders to Polish labor--the UK, Ireland, and Sweden - 
-have for the most part failed to materialize.  Emigration 
levels from Poland have been below expectation, in contrast 
to several of the other new member states, like Lithuania, 
where outflows have surprised observers. 
 
15.  (SBU)  Analysts are optimistic that migration to 
Western Europe will be a transitory phenomenon, as both 
prices and salary levels in Poland catch up to the EU 
average in the long term.  They hope for a "circular 
migration" effect, in which Polish workers return home after 
gaining experience and skills abroad. 
 
16.  (SBU)  According to the Poles, migration from the new 
EU member states has had a positive economic impact on the 
host nation, largely due to the UK's low unemployment rates. 
Roughly 100,000 Poles have registered as workers in the UK 
since accession, about one-third of which were already in 
the country, many probably working illegally.  These workers 
have pumped PLN 1.7 billion into the British economy, and 
there is no evidence of a "flood" of immigrants into 
Britain.  There is some concern about "brain waste," which 
occurs when highly qualified workers from new member states 
work in unskilled labor positions in the UK.  However, local 
Polish observers are encouraged by the fact that Poles 
working in the UK are increasingly employed in the business 
and management sector, as opposed to unskilled positions in 
agriculture and fishing. 
 
17.  (SBU)  Concerns about a brain drain remain alive in the 
medical field.  With Poland's nursing schools now turning 
out drastically fewer graduates than they did several years 
ago, and anecdotal reports of nurses moving abroad, some 
worry that loss of skilled workers to Britain and other EU 
states could result in a shortage of medical staff at home. 
Still, the Polish government remains eager to open more 
borders to Polish workers within the EU, in particular 
hoping to encourage Germany--still the number- one 
destination for Polish workers--to allow Polish workers to 
cross the border freely.  However, many Polish economists 
believe that Germany will remain largely closed to Polish 
labor for the entire seven-year transitional period. 
 
----- 
Trade 
----- 
 
18.  (SBU)  The biggest story of the first year after EU 
accession for Poland was a dramatic (38 percent) overall 
increase in agro-food exports in 2004.  Exports of meat, 
dairy products, fresh produce, and sugar rose by 54 percent 
to EUR 3.4 billion.  This overall increase in agro-food 
exports outpaced growth in imports (27 percent), more than 
doubling Poland's positive trade balance in the sector to 
over one billion euro. 
 
19.  (SBU)  Polish exports in general increased by 30 
percent in 2004 (measured in zlotys).  The effect was not 
limited to trade within the EU:  while exports to EU 
countries rose by 27 percent, exports to developing 
countries rose by 46 percent.  In fact, the most dramatic 
increase in trade relations in 2004 was an unexpected 77 
percent increase in exports to Russia.  According to 
Wyznikiewicz, this effect is probably unrelated to EU 
expansion and rather seems to stem from an earlier communist 
tradition of economic exchange with Russia 
 
20.  (SBU)  Dynamic export growth in the first five months 
of 2005 has continued in dollar and euro terms, though not 
so in zlotys because the currency has strengthened so 
significantly in the past year.  Exports to the EU in 
January-May 2005 increased 22 percent in dollar terms from 
the same period in 2004 but decreased one percent when 
measured in zlotys.  Still, increases in exports to 
developing countries, primarily in Eastern Europe, fueled an 
overall 3.7 percent export increase in zloty terms (28 
percent in dollars).  Poland's trade balance continues to 
improve, with export growth significantly outpacing import 
growth in this period (imports increased 16 percent in 
dollar terms but dropped six percent in zlotys). 
 
------------- 
Energy Sector 
------------- 
 
21.  (SBU)  One of the thorniest issues of EU accession has 
been the resolution of long-term contracts in the energy 
sector.  Over half of the energy on the Polish market is 
procured by the government at an above-market rate 
established by long-term contracts signed years ago.  The EU 
is insisting that Poland dissolve these contracts, arguing 
they constitute an inadmissible form of public support for 
the industry.  The government has been working to resolve 
the issue through a new compensation bill, but disagreements 
prevented it from being passed this term.  The PO party 
recently put forth its position on the issue, which 
advocated privatization of the state-owned energy companies 
and the use of the proceeds as lump-sum compensation for 
canceling the lucrative contracts. 
 
22.  (SBU)  But officials the Ministry of Economy were 
skeptical that such a plan would work, suggesting that the 
likely proceeds from privatization would not cover the high 
costs of compensation (up to PLN 26 billion).  They think 
that ultimately a surcharge may have to be applied to 
consumers' electricity bills to pay for the compensation, 
but this will not raise prices because consumers are 
currently paying a surcharge to cover the above-market price 
of the contracted energy.  Competition is expected to put 
downward pressure on prices, but in the long term prices are 
nevertheless expected to rise to the levels prevailing in 
the rest of the EU. 
 
----------------- 
Emissions Trading 
----------------- 
 
23.  (SBU)  One of the major anticipated benefits of EU 
accession for Poland was access to the EU emissions trading 
market, which was expected to bring in billions of dollars 
due to Poland's relatively low emissions levels (initially 
estimated at 30-40 percent below the country's allocation). 
However, bureaucratic delays and disorganization have 
clouded the issue.  The European Commission allocated Poland 
16 percent less emissions for the next three years than the 
Polish government requested, partially because two 
government ministries separately issued conflicting sets of 
data on the country's emissions.  Rather than cut its 
proposed internal allocations by 16 percent across the 
board, the government is now in the midst of a controversial 
effort to reallocate the new emissions limit among relevant 
industries, several of which want to expand production. 
This may make it difficult to stay within the limits.  The 
thorny reallocation process, as well as the process of 
setting up a new emissions administrator, is delaying entry 
to the emissions trading system. 
 
24.  (SBU)  Boguslaw Debski of the Environmental Protection 
Institute said he is hopeful Poland will be ready to trade 
emissions by the end of 2005, but he admitted there is a 
chance the process will not be completed until next year, a 
situation he said would be "tragic."  Debski said that 
overall, Poland will certainly have a surplus of emissions 
allocations available to trade, but a number of individual 
producers fear they may exceed their quotas. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
26.  (SBU)  Every contact consulted had positive things to 
say about the economic impact of EU accession in Poland; 
even the overall slowing of economic growth this year was 
interpreted primarily as a sign of stabilization rather than 
as a cause for concern.  Analysts are particularly heartened 
by the incipient signs of decreasing unemployment, as well 
as by the rapid return of stable prices.  But several tricky 
regulatory issues remain to be resolved, and their progress- 
-much like progress toward adopting the euro--is likely to 
rely on the incoming government's degree of motivation. 
While it is still too early to draw precise conclusions 
about the full impact of the EU accession on Poland's 
economy, it seems clear that the doomsday forecasts made 
before accession have not materialized. 
 
HILLAS