This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SAO PAULO 000920 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR SUE CRONIN 
 
DEPT ALSO FOR WHA/PD 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KCRM KIPR KDEM ECON PHUM BTIO EINV SOCI BR
SUBJECT:  SAO PAULO MAYOR SERRA'S SIX MONTH RECORD 
 
REF: A) Sao Paulo 21 
     B) Sao Paulo 289 
     C) Sao Paulo 475 
     D) Sao Paulo 499 
     E) Brasilia 1874 
     F) Brasilia 1867 
     G) Sao Paulo 200 
     H) Sao Paulo 281 
     I) Sao Paulo 418 
     J) Sao Paulo 419 
     K) Sao Paulo 848 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  At the conclusion of his first six 
months in office, Sao Paulo Mayor Jose Serra (Social 
Democratic Party of Brazil or PSDB) enjoys a more positive 
public evaluation than any of his 5 predecessors, yet 
reviews of his performance to date remain mixed.  Of his 15 
campaign promises made during his drive for the office, nine 
have not materialized, five are in process and one has been 
fulfilled.  Serra argues that his lack of success in 
achieving his stated goals is largely due to the 
"administrative, financial, political and moral mess" that 
he inherited from his predecessor, Martha Suplicy of the 
Workers' Party (PT), and his priority has been to clean up 
that "mess."  He has managed to increase the municipal 
coffers due to exacting collection of city fines.  He is 
generally believed to be honest and competent, but lacks 
diplomatic flair when dealing with the public, and has not 
yet produced the large-scale public projects and works so 
popular with Sao Paulo citizens.  Nevertheless, his 
popularity with the people of Sao Paulo is rising, according 
to recent polls.  Furthermore, he enjoys a higher approval 
rating at this point of his tenure than any of his five 
predecessors.  End Summary 
 
THE RECORD 
---------- 
 
¶2. (U) Folha, the major liberal news daily, recently 
reported that Serra's performance to date is mixed.  Five 
programs are in "process," including construction of 
permanent buildings at schools that currently hold classes 
in metal trailers; improvement and increase in hours of the 
Unified Education Centers (CEUs), community-based education 
centers which were the brain child of his predecessor; and 
an exemption of electricity taxes for areas that do not 
receive public electricity service.  Nine other programs 
have yet to see some "practical result" for the average Sao 
Paulo citizen. The Sao Paulo Mother program, which existed 
under the previous administration and provides pre- and post- 
natal care for expectant mothers and free public 
transportation passes for them, is currently under 
reorganization with plans for implementation in the second 
half of the year.   The long-awaited "Unified Ticket" for 
all buses, subways and trains in the city is still 
undergoing a feasibility study, and will not likely go into 
effect until next year. (Note:  Currently, passengers on 
public transport do not receive free transfers between the 
various forms of public transportation in the city.  The 
"Unified Ticket" will be a considerable practical benefit 
for millions of Sao Paulo's working class. End Note) Another 
program still in the planning stages is the delivery of 
medicine by mail.  Currently, registration of participants 
is underway, but delivery of medicine has not yet begun. 
Folha stated that the one campaign promise that has been 
"almost completed" is the resumption of 60 public work 
projects that were interrupted due to lack of funds.  The 
contracts on 83 other works are currently under review. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The clean-up of downtown Sao Paulo has received 
considerable press attention.  Serra and Deputy Mayor for 
Central Sao Paulo Andrea Matarazzo are involved in a 
widespread crackdown on crime in the dangerous center of Sao 
Paulo.  In recent months, post has reported on various 
aspects of the clean-up program.  The city has sponsored 
public demolitions of pirated electronic goods, DVDs and CDs 
and numerous police raids on vendors who sell contraband 
goods in the center of the city (see Reftel C, D).  The 
police have been involved in the crackdown on drug dealers, 
users and prostitutes in the area known as Cracolandia, or 
"Crack Land."  Police authorities have reported to Pol offs 
that Serra is more cooperative in working with police on 
crackdowns than the former mayor, Marta Suplicy (see Reftel 
K).  The Consulate enjoys better relations with the new 
administration, compared to those with the administration of 
Suplicy (see Reftel G). 
 
PUTTING THE HOUSE IN ORDER 
-------------------------- 
¶4. (U) Serra claims that he has not been successful in 
fulfilling his campaign promises because he has been 
involved in the "clean up" of the financial, administrative, 
political and moral "mess" left by his predecessor, Marta 
Suplicy.  Press reports state that Serra has spent four 
times more resources to payoff past administrations' debts 
than it has spent on new investments (See Reftel A), and 
claims that some of the city's major creditors will not 
receive payment until 2012.  While Serra's detractors claim 
that the debt left by the previous administration has been 
exaggerated and the municipal auditors claim that all fiscal 
records from 2004 are in order, the Public Ministry is 
currently investigating the books of the Suplicy 
administration for over-spending.  Due to an exacting system 
of fine collection, Serra's administration has collected 
five million Brazilian Reals in the first seven months of 
his tenure, compared to 800,000 Brazilian Reals collected by 
the administration of Suplicy in 2004.  Fine collection 
includes penalties for speeding on motorways, business 
service taxes, penalties for illegal use of public space, 
and fines for restaurant/bar irregularities.  New toll lanes 
on major beltways around the city will bring in revenue to 
the city's treasury.  Serra's administration has already 
renegotiated the contracts of 12,000 city suppliers and cut 
20 percent of city jobs, in an attempt to diminish nepotism. 
His finance minister stated, "Our plan is to cut expenses 
and increase revenue, but without raising costs to the 
population."  Despite the fact that Serra has yet to 
institute all the reforms that he intended, the mayor's 
popularity appears to be increasing. 
 
POPULARITY ON THE RISE 
---------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) Serra has enjoyed an increase in popular opinion in 
the last few months.  Datafolha, the Brazilian research 
institute, indicates that Serra's approval rating has 
improved since the last survey was taken by the agency in 
April 2005.  In April, 57 percent of those surveyed who 
voted for Marta Suplicy (PT) in the mayoral race believed 
that Serra's administration to date was "bad/terrible." The 
more recent poll, however, indicated that only 36 percent of 
those who voted for Suplicy evaluated Serra's administration 
as "bad/terrible," a decrease of 21 points. And within this 
group, the number of those who now believe that Serra is 
doing a "great" job has doubled, from 6 percent to 12 
percent of those surveyed. 
 
DOING BETTER THAN HIS PREDECESSORS 
---------------------------------- 
¶6. (U) Seven months into his mandate, Serra's approval 
rating ranks above that of five predecessors.  30 percent of 
those surveyed ranked him as doing a "great/good" job, while 
23 percent of those surveyed stated that he was doing a 
"terrible/bad" job.  At the eight-month mark, Marta Suplicy 
(PT) received a 20 percent "great/good" job rating, and a 35 
percent "terrible/bad" rating.  Her predecessor, Celso Pitta 
(Popular Party of Brazil), received a 19 percent ranking and 
a 36 per ranking, respectively, after 6 months in office. 
 
THE PRESIDENCY IN 2006? 
----------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) The recent political scandal in Brasilia has 
heightened the question of whether Serra will throw his hat 
into the ring in the campaign for President in 2006.  Last 
week, Serra reportedly announced that a possible bid for the 
Presidency is not a "priority," but neither did he deny it 
as a possibility.  Subsequently, he reiterated that he will 
not campaign for the Presidency.  Datafolha reports that 67 
percent of those surveyed stated that they did not believe 
that Serra should leave his post as Mayor to run for 
President in 2006.  (Note: Serra has served just over six 
months of his four-year term as Mayor.  End Note) According 
to press reports, political scientist Fernando Abrucio 
believes that if Serra leaves his current position to run 
for President, he will lose credibility with those who 
elected him and with members of his own PSDB party.  He 
promised during his campaign that if elected he would remain 
in the mayoral seat for the duration of his term, and not 
leave it to seek higher office.  During the campaign, the PT 
accused Serra of only seeking the office of Mayor of Sao 
Paulo as a stepping stone to the Presidency.  If he resigns 
from his post to run for President, his Vice-Mayor, Gilberto 
Kassab, of the Liberal Front Party(PFL), would assume 
control over the city government. 
 
¶8. (U) Recently, local media has emphasized Serra's 
criticism of Lula's administration.  Referring to the 
monthly payments to Congressmen by the PT administration, 
the heart of the current scandal in Brasilia, Serra 
reportedly said that everyone has known about the payments 
since 2003.  This is Serra's strongest attack on the PT and 
federal government since the crisis started.  He is believed 
to have said that the progress made by the former President 
Fernando Henrique Cardoso's administration towards 
strengthening democratic institutions in Brazil has been 
pushed back towards "bygone sad years." 
 
¶9. (SBU) Comment:  Jose Serra enjoys a reputation as an 
honest, hardworking and competent politician.  He has spent 
the first six months of his mayoral term in "putting the 
house in order," and it is generally believed that he has 
been successful in doing just that.  He has not as yet, 
however, developed large, "flashy" public projects and 
programs, which the public generally greets with enthusiasm. 
Serra lacks the personal charisma and grace of his 
predecessor, Marta Suplicy (PT), and this deficiency has 
received some negative press coverage by the Sao Paulo 
media.  Although he has not been able to institute all the 
programs and reforms promised during the campaign, his 
popularity among surveyed citizens appears to be increasing. 
Serra's efforts to curtail the system of political favors 
have made it difficult for him to get his programs approved 
by Sao Paulo's City Council, and he failed to get a 
political ally elected as president of the Council.  Yet, it 
remains to be seen if Serra will keep his oft-stated word 
that he will not run for the Presidency and remain in the 
mayoral seat for the duration of his three and half year 
mandate, or if he will be again pulled into national 
politics. End Comment. 
 
WOLFE