VZCZCXYZ0007
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSK #0810/01 2031031
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 221031Z JUL 05
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2629
INFO RUEHMO/AMEMBASSY MOSCOW 3067
RUEHKV/AMEMBASSY KIEV 2838
RUEHVL/AMEMBASSY VILNIUS 3295
RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 2968
RUEHRA/AMEMBASSY RIGA 1360
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 0580
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS MINSK 000810 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT ALSO FOR INR 
KIEV ALSO FOR USAID 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL BO
SUBJECT: Polling Shows Street Name Fury 
 
Ref: Minsk 1143 
 
¶1. Summary:  According to the NOVAK opinion polling for 
June, 42.3 percent of Belarusians would vote for President 
Aleksandr Lukashenko, down 0.1 percent since April.  The 
opposition candidate posing the greatest threat to 
Lukashenko, UCP leader Anatoli Lebedko, would receive 1.0 
percent of the vote in a hypothetical election (with an 
unlimited pool of candidates; the numbers would be different 
in any one-on-one match-up).  The majority of the population 
favors union with Russia, but the biggest issue for 
Belarusians recently has been the renaming of two major 
streets in the capital.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. Poloffs met with Andrey Vardomatsky, head of the NOVAK 
polling service, on July 12.  Vardomatsky presented the 
results of his latest poll conducted nationwide between May 
24 and June 4.  The poll included 1282 respondents. 
 
 
Lukashenko Maintains the Lead 
----------------------------- 
 
¶3. The past month has shown little change in Lukashenko's 
support, with 42.3 percent of Belarusians saying they would 
vote for him.  However, the percentage of respondents who 
would vote against him has dropped from 21.8 in April to 
18.0 in early June.  This is the lowest his negative rating 
has been for at least two and a half years.  Trust in the 
president has risen from 53.8 percent in April to 56.1 
percent in June. 
 
¶4. Again, no other figure in Belarus would receive more than 
one percent of the vote in an open election (NOVAK did not 
conduct test ballot pairings).  Potential opposition 
presidential candidate and UCP leader Anatoly Lebedko leads 
the pack with 1.0 percent.  Sergei Gaidukevich, leader of 
the non-liberal and non-democratic Liberal Democratic Party 
would receive 0.7 percent, and 2001 presidential candidate 
Vladimir Goncharik of the Belarusian Federation of Trade 
Unions, who left the political scene after his 2001 defeat, 
would get 0.5 percent.  [Note: Even though there is a 3 
percent margin of error, Lebedko and Gaidukevich usually top 
the list after Lukashenko.] 
 
¶5. Comment: Almost half of poll respondents consistently 
respond it is hard to say for whom they would vote if the 
presidential election were to be held soon.  In response to 
these questions, 45.7 percent (45.5 in April, 47.3 in March, 
44.8 in February) could not give an answer of which 
candidate they would choose.  This points to a large mass of 
people who are unhappy with Lukashenko, but do not see any 
alternatives. 
 
 
Life's a Bit Better 
------------------- 
 
¶6. Those who view the current economic situation as fair 
have increased from 52.5 percent to 56.0 percent, while 
those who view it as bad have dropped by 3.9 percent to 19.4 
percent.  15.3 percent believe that the economic situation 
on the whole has worsened in the last month, and 22.0 
percent believe that their personal standard of living has 
dropped.  The overwhelming majority, however, at 62.9 on the 
whole and 66.2 percent personally, see no changes since 
April. 
 
 
Europe or Russia? 
----------------- 
 
¶7. Opinions on whether it is better to live in union with 
Russia or with the European Union have not changed 
significantly over the last month, with 50.5 percent 
choosing union with Russia (up from 49.2) and 31.3 percent 
choosing union with the EU (down from 32.8).  If a vote were 
to be held today, 37.5 percent of respondents said they 
would vote to join the EU, with 26.5 percent voting against. 
Showing no significant changes, 52.4 percent said that they 
would vote for unification of Belarus and Russia, while 22.0 
percent would oppose it. 
 
 
Apathy Rampant, but Slightly Down 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶8. When asked if public demonstrations against price rises 
or a fall of living standards would take place in their town 
or district, 71.0 percent of respondents viewed this as 
unlikely and 67.6 percent said they would not partake in 
them.  These figures are down marginally from 73.2 percent 
and 68.8 percent in April. 
 
 
Street Name Changes Not Well Received 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. The biggest current cause of concern for participants in 
the poll is the recent presidential decree changing the name 
of Masherov Avenue in Minsk to Pobeditelei (Victors) Avenue 
and F. Skaryni Avenue to Nezavisimosti (Independence) 
Avenue.  [Note: Masherov and Skaryni are historical figures 
renowned by many Belarusians.]  Although 39.8 percent of 
those asked had not previously known about the decree, the 
majority of poll participants disapproved of the name 
changes.  Percentages were higher among those who were 
already aware of the decree. 
 
¶10. When asked about their attitude to the renaming of 
Skaryni Avenue, Belarusians responded: 
 
                              % of all  % of those knowing 
 
Approve                       12.7      16.3 
Disapprove                    52.9      68.1 
Don't Know/Hard to Say        34.5      15.6 
 
¶11. Results were similar for the renaming of Masherov 
Avenue: 
                              % of all  % of those knowing 
 
Approve                       11.6      14.4 
Disapprove                    54.9      70.1 
Don't Know/Hard to Say        33.5      15.5 
 
¶12. Despite Lukashenko's assurances that his decree was in 
response to repeated requests by veterans, few believe that 
is the reason for the renaming: 
 
                                   % of all  % of those 
                                             knowing 
Owing to numerous requests 
  of veterans and inhabitants 
  of the capital                   13.2      14.8 
President's personal initiative    35.5      47.1 
Other                              4.8       6.3 
Don't Know/Hard to Say             46.5      31.8 
 
¶13. Comment: Lukashenko's renaming of Minsk's two main 
streets has been the root of a number of jokes and 
derogatory remarks at his expense.  This poll shows a 
majority of Belarusians, not just in Minsk, oppose the 
renaming of these streets, and further place the blame for 
the move squarely on Lukashenko.  However, aside from quiet 
mutterings, this has not turned into an overtly political 
issue.  There have been a number of public protests against 
the renaming, but all were extremely small and largely 
consisted of the same usual suspects. 
 
KROL