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UNCLAS  SOFIA 001020 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR BULGARIA'S JUNE 25 GENERAL ELECTIONS 
 
Ref: (A) SOFIA 808, (B) SOFIA 838, (C) SOFIA 859, (D) SOFIA 931 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Bulgaria holds general elections on June 25, the 
sixth since communism collapsed in 1989.  The election will likely 
come down to a race between the ruling National Movement for Simeon 
II (NMSS) and the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP).  The NMSS began 
the 30-day official campaign on May 25 as an underdog, closing on 
the Socialist's lead.  However, recent polls show both BSP and NMSS 
gaining votes, but the BSP lead remains intact.  At this stage, 
most analysts believe no one party will receive a clear majority 
and a coalition government will lead Bulgaria towards EU membership 
in 2007.  Numerically, a coalition between the BSP and the ethnic 
Turkish Movement for Rights and Freedom (MRF) is a growing 
possibility.  Also possible are coalitions of the left or right 
headed by current PM Simeon Saxe-Coburg Gotha, although Simeon 
recently stated his party would not back a BSP-led government. 
Post-election jockeying will determine the ultimate "winners" of 
this election - possibly several weeks after the vote.  END SUMMARY 
 
KEY CONTESTANTS 
 
¶2. (U) Twenty-two parties and coalitions are running, but reliable 
recent polls suggest only six have a realistic chance of entering 
parliament. 
 
¶3. (SBU) THE BULGARIAN SOCIALIST PARTY (BSP): Since its ouster from 
power by mass protests over mismanagement of the economy in 1997, 
the BSP is slowly reforming as a modern social democratic party 
similar to others across Europe.  Under the leadership of 39-year- 
old Sergei Stanishev the BSP has walked the tightrope between 
endorsing Euro-Atlantic values and pleasing its base of elderly 
communists.  Its reform efforts have been supported by the 
performance of President Georgi Purvanov, the former BSP leader who 
enjoys broad popularity.  The widening gap between the reformist 
leadership and the party grass roots, and the lack of experienced 
people for top state posts are seen as the serious problems for a 
possible BSP government (Ref. A). Unlike other parties, the 
Socialists have pledged an immediate withdrawal of Bulgaria's 
troops in Iraq should they come to power (Ref B). 
 
¶4. (SBU) THE NATIONAL MOVEMENT FOR SIMEON II (NMSS): Saxe-Coburg's 
movement swept to power in the 2001 elections with 43 percent of 
the vote, allowing the former monarch to regain power as prime 
minister.  The coalition government of the NMSS and the ethnic 
Turkish MRF is only the second Bulgarian post-communist cabinet to 
complete a full four-year term.  It achieved robust economic 
growth, lowered unemployment and secured a NATO entry.  But the 
party has not converted its successes into public support.  Since 
2001, the NMSS has been hit by infighting and defections which 
eroded its parliamentary group to 97 MPs from 120.  After a sharp 
drop in support over the first three years, support for the NMSS 
has increased recently as the country prepares to join the EU in 
2007 (Ref C).  Simeon's government has a respectable record, 
especially in comparison with its predecessors: Zhan Videnov's BSP 
government ruined the economy; and Ivan Kostov's center-right 
cabinet was associated with high-level corruption.  As in 2001, 
Simeon's name does not appear on the party list, and he has not 
said what he intends to do if his party's results fail to position 
him to keep the PM's job (Ref D). 
 
¶5. (SBU) THE CENTER-RIGHT PARTIES:  Center-right leaders have 
failed to overcome personal and political differences, and their 
parties go to the polls weak and fragmented.  The Union of 
Democratic Forces (UDF), the center-right group that led post- 
communist changes in Bulgaria, has been in opposition since its 
bitter defeat in 2001.  The UDF government of Ivan Kostov achieved 
macroeconomic stability and won an EU invitation, but lost popular 
support amid widespread allegations of corruption.  The UDF has 
been torn by high-profile rows between its leaders that led to the 
formation of two new groups.  Sofia's popular Mayor Stefan 
Sofianski launched in 2001 a party called the Union of Free 
Democrats (UFD).  Last year Kostov left the UDF to form the 
Democrats for Strong Bulgaria (DSB).  The UDF, now led by former 
Foreign Minister Nadezhda Mihailova, is third in the polls and 
likely to enter parliament.  However, chances are uncertain for 
Kostov's DSB, and Sofianski's UFD.  Sofianski's image has been 
marred by ongoing court proceedings over allegations of corruption, 
while Kostov suffers from high negative ratings. 
 
¶6. (SBU) THE MOVEMENT FOR RIGHTS AND FREEDOMS (MRF):  A party of 
Bulgarian ethnic Turks that makes up around 10 percent of the 
population, the MRF is the junior partner in the NMSS government. 
The MRF and its leader Ahmed Dogan have emerged as powerbrokers as 
the ex-king's government depends on its support in parliament to 
stay in power.  Many believe the ethnic Turkish party, which won 
7.5 percent of the vote in 2001 and has 20 seats in parliament, has 
gained influence in the government disproportionate to its 
representation.  Until recently, the MRF has had an almost complete 
monopoly on the ethnic Turkish vote.  For these elections, however, 
two smaller groups are also vying for the Turkish vote and could 
erode the MRF's support.  The MRF could again play a key role in 
creating the next government. 
 
POSSIBLE SCENARIOS 
 
¶7. (SBU) The elections are being hotly contested, but a landslide 
victory by any side is less likely than in previous votes.  The gap 
between the Socialists and the NMSS had been narrowing somewhat, 
but latest polls show support to have flattened and the BSP retains 
a significant lead.  At this stage the BSP seems to be in the best 
position to emerge as the biggest parliamentary faction.  Whether 
the BSP can garner an absolute majority is less certain.  Under 
Bulgaria's complex proportional representation system, a low 
turnout favors the better-organized Socialists who have the most 
solid electorate, compared with NMSS' weak local structures.  On 
the other hand, the BSP has not appealed to voters outside its base 
in the past, while the NMSS may attract centrist and undecided 
voters as well as disillusioned rightwing supporters.  If the BSP 
fails to win an absolute majority they will be forced to seek a 
coalition with the ex-king's party or with the ethnic Turkish MRF. 
A BSP-MRF coalition, unfortunately, would be highly susceptible to 
outside influences and special interests.  It would be a 
comfortable ideological fit, but the personalities involved might 
make it difficult in operation. 
 
¶8. (SBU) If the NMSS narrows the gap with the BSP it could hold the 
key to the formation of the next government as either a partner in 
a center-left government, or the leading force in a disparate 
center-right coalition.  The past four years have shown the moves 
of the enigmatic ex-king are difficult to predict.  Given Simeon's 
style and track record, it is unclear whether his recent statement 
that his party would not back a BSP-led government is pre-election 
posturing aimed to attract the soft center-right electorate, or a 
hard political position.  An NMSS coalition with the Socialists 
could secure a more stable parliamentary majority but would be a 
tough historic compromise for Simeon since the BSP's forebearers 
forced the royal family out of Bulgaria 50 years ago.  Although a 
center-right government led by Simeon is less likely according to 
current polls, it is still possible and a more natural ideological 
choice for Simeon. 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶9. Bulgaria has not had a Socialist government since demonstrations 
ousted Zhan Videnov's cabinet in 1997.  Since then, two consecutive 
reformist governments have stabilized the economy and set the 
country firmly in the Euro-Atlantic orbit.  Most analysts believe 
additional reforms are critical, but some doubt the Socialists, who 
spent eight years in opposition, are capable of mustering a team 
qualified to implement them.  Some doubt the BSP's commitment to 
sustaining fiscal discipline and attracting foreign investment, 
given their lavish social pledges and comments against key 
privatizations.  Bulgarians have proven to be irrational voters 
with short memories of the political past, tending to back the 
party that has been longest out of power.  The memories of the 
1996/97 economic crisis have faded and the BSP is now broadly 
associated with its young leader and the popular President.  The 
aging population, which is active in the polls and forms the BSP 
base, also backs the case for a Socialist victory.  Unlike previous 
elections, the real "winners" may not emerge on election night and 
much will depend on post-election coalition talks. 
 
¶10. TABLE: Alpha Research polling agency nationwide survey. 
Party      May 29-June 3, 2005     (%) 
--------------------------------------- 
BSP                                27.5 
NMSS                               14.6 
UDF-DP-St.George's Day              7.4 
MRF                                 5.2 
UFD (Sofianski)-BANU-IMRO           3.6 
DSB (Kostov)                        3.4 
Others                              7.0 
Have not decided                   10.0 
Will not vote                      21.3 
 
In case of a 60-percent voter turnout, the BSP would win 108 MPs, 
the NMSS - 56, UDF - 29, MRF - 20, Sofianski's coalition - 14 and 
DSB - 13. Majority in the 240-seat parliament requires 121 seats.