This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS  ROME 002178 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
FRANFURT FOR WALLAR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON IT TU EUN ITALY NATIONAL ELECTIONS
SUBJECT:  ITALY-EU: BERLUSCONI STANDS FIRM, BUT PRODI 
REVEALS DOUBTS ON TURKISH ACCESSION 
 
¶1.  (U) Sensitive but unclassified; not for Internet 
distribution. 
 
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SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Italian reactions to the French/Dutch rejection 
of the EU Constitution are playing out in the context of 
national election politics, Italy's own battle with 
Brussels over Stability Pact budget/deficit restrictions 
and rising concern about illegal immigration. PM 
Berlusconi continues to defend both the euro and EU 
expansion, but on June 21, former EC President and center- 
left leader Romano Prodi surprised many by calling into 
question Turkey's accession process.  Should Prodi lead 
the next government, Italian support for Turkish EU 
membership could weaken considerably.  END SUMMARY. 
 
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EURO HERE TO STAY 
----------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) Speaking in Parma at a joint press conference 
with European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso 
following the inauguration of the European Food Safety 
Authority on June 21, PM Silvio Berlusconi dismissed 
calls by Northern League allies to return to the lira, 
saying it is "neither possible nor convenient to walk out 
of the euro."  Berlusconi posited that the Maastricht 
Treaty helped contain expenses for Italy and other 
countries.  It must, however, be interpreted with "some 
flexibility" and the EU should assess the possibility of 
having a European economic policy, because at the moment, 
the European Central Bank can only fight inflation. 
 
¶4.  (U)  In an interview June 21 with a small northern 
daily newspaper, former European Commission President and 
presumed 2006 center-left challenger to Berlusconi Romano 
Prodi admitted that the euro "does not work...because 
there is no economic development policy," but added that 
the "problem is not the euro, but enlargement." 
 
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EUROPE "PAUSES" 
--------------- 
 
¶5.  (U) According to Berlusconi, "nothing will happen" 
after the French and Dutch NOs to the European 
Constitutional Treaty and the crisis over EU financial 
perspectives.  "Europe continues, and there will be more 
time to explain the Constitution and reach an agreement 
on the budget."  Europe is simply undergoing a "pause," 
but the treaty will eventually "see the light," when 
people in Europe are fully informed of the benefits that 
it will bring to the EU, including the role the Treaty 
would allow the EU to play internationally, "on the same 
level as the United States, because it gives the go ahead 
to European defense and a European army." 
 
¶6.  (U) Berlusconi dismissed coalition partner Northern 
League's continuing Euro-skepticism ("Europe is dead," 
party leader Umberto Bossi declared to sympathizers in a 
rare public appearance June 19), and said the EU "remains 
essential to maintaining peace and security in the 
world."  The Northern League is "tied to the interests of 
its region and its constituents," Berlusconi continued, 
but he underscored that the League has not and will not 
stop the Government from moving forward on Europe.  The 
PM nonetheless addressed League concerns when he called 
for a Europe "careful to defend its citizens, and not a 
Europe of elites and bureaucracy, as we are unfortunately 
faced with today."  "We need a Europe in which rules do 
not drop down from on high," Berlusconi argued, a Europe 
with fewer laws, because "many regulations, when dropped 
on the various countries, have caused difficulties." 
 
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TURKISH ACCESSION 
----------------- 
 
¶7.  (U) Berlusconi also reiterated Italy's support for 
Turkey's accession to the EU, saying Turkey is an 
"important partner because of its geo-strategic position 
between Europe and the Muslim world.  A Muslim country 
that can be democratic and can cooperate with the West" 
would be an asset to the future of the EU, he argued. 
Therefore, he hoped people in France and Germany "will 
change their minds and accept Turkey as a European 
country, but this cannot happen tomorrow or the day 
after, of course." 
 
------------------------- 
PRODI RETHINKS EXPANSION? 
------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Many were shocked the same day to read an 
interview by center-left leader and former European 
Commission President Romano Prodi in the Italian 
northeastern daily "Il Gazzettino," in which he declared 
the "real problem is Turkey."  Raising concerns later 
echoed by current Commission President Barroso, Prodi 
stated that the "conditions for Turkey's accession to the 
EU in the short or mid-term no longer exist.  It is 
necessary to rethink" Turkey's future presence in the EU, 
because the "referenda indicated strong alarm" about the 
country's accession. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) He did not, however, repudiate expansion to 
central and eastern Europe and the Balkans, which he had 
strongly backed as Commission President.  On the 
contrary, playing to the local readership, Prodi 
suggested that Italy's northeastern region of Veneto, 
which has strong economic relations with Romania, would 
profit from that country's EU accession. 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  Prodi's remarks about Turkey should be seen 
partially in the context of the building Italian 
political campaign, including internal center-left 
politicking.  Prodi and Daisy party leader Francesco 
Rutelli have been sparring on a number of issues, and 
Rutelli in a June 22 press interview essentially accused 
Prodi of having rushed EU expansion.  According to 
Rutelli, "there is only one way out.  Stop enlargement 
until the Constitutional Treaty is ratified...because a 
"Europe of 25 cannot work." 
 
¶11.  (SBU)  Not surprisingly, Prodi's comments about 
Turkish accession provoked enthusiastic support from the 
Northern League, with Reform Minister Roberto Calderoli 
applauding: "Bravo, better late than never."  The rest of 
the governing coalition followed Berlusconi's example in 
countering Northern League excesses.  DPM/FM Gianfranco 
Fini noted that the League's position is "truly in the 
minority both in the Government and in Italian public 
opinion." 
 
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COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) In his press statements, PM Berlusconi 
accurately described the Northern League's role in the 
coalition's current term:  While party representatives 
may take "extreme" positions and make inflammatory 
speeches in their northern district, in direct appeal to 
their voters who crave such rhetoric, the party has not 
pressed its Euro-skeptic viewpoint with particular fervor 
in Rome.  The League is not a threat to Italy's staying 
the course on EU expansion or remaining with the euro. 
 
¶13.  (SBU)  The Italian economy is officially in 
recession, the Government continues to battle Brussels 
over EU Stability Pact restrictions on budgets and 
deficits, and the man in the street still blames the euro 
for many economic woes.  Add in growing Italian 
discomfort over illegal immigration and historic 
antipathy toward Turkey, and you get a formula for 
skepticism over EU expansion.  While Prodi had likely 
factored in all those concerns, his latest statement on 
Turkey may be more of a "coming-out" than a change in 
position.  He has long been lukewarm to Turkish 
accession, and Italian support for Turkish EU membership 
could weaken considerably should Prodi lead the next 
government. 
 
SKODON 
 
 
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	2005ROME02178 - Classification: UNCLASSIFIED