This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 DAR ES SALAAM 001241 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E AND INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: 6/25/15 
TAGS: PGOV TZ
SUBJECT:  Zanzibar Elections:  Worrisome Prospects 
 
Classified by Pol-Econ Chief Judy Buelow for reason 
1.4(b) 
 
REF: A) Dar es Salaam 1090   B)Dar es Salaam 1001, 
C) Dar es Salaam 908, D) Dar es Salaam 772 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: The Diplomatic Group convened June 
17 to discuss Zanzibar's elections preparations, and 
to plan its response to troubling recent 
developments.  Earlier in the week, Zanzibar 
Presidential candidate Seif Shariff Hamad had called 
on several Western embassies to describe the 
opposition CUF party's struggles on an uneven 
playing field.  Hamad also said CUF would stage a 
massive "peoples' power" civil disobedience campaign 
if the Zanzibar elections were "stolen again."   On 
June 15, the election observation NGO "TEMCO" held a 
conference for Zanzibar's stakeholders to discuss 
voter registration, highlighting the many problems 
that could undermine the credibility of the 
Permanent Voters Register (PVR) and the elections. 
On the positive side, Zanzibar President Karume 
opened TEMCO's Conference and said all the right 
things about fair elections.  Observers concur that 
the Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) still could 
implement technical measures to resolve the problems 
with the PVR.  It remains to be seen if the ZEC will 
in fact do so, and if the rest of the Zanzibari 
government will refrain from interfering during the 
critical run-up to the October 30 elections.  End 
Summary. 
 
------------------------------- 
Debate and Contingency Planning 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Voter registration on Zanzibar ended April 
26, and the official campaign does not open until 
August 20.  During this interim period, the ZEC is 
receiving objections to names that may have been 
wrongly entered on the PVR or wrongly omitted. 
Together with the courts, the ZEC is adjudicating 
these cases.  Meanwhile, Zanzibar's election 
"stakeholders" are debating the prospects for 
credible elections; some are making contingency 
plans in the event irregularities and violence once 
again undermine the electoral process. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
TEMCO Provided a Forum for Debate . . . 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) A June 15 conference on Zanzibar's voter 
registration, hosted by TEMCO, highlighted both the 
serious problems with the PVR, and Zanzibar's 
widening political polarization.  TEMCO, the 
Tanzanian NGO that USAID funded to observe voter 
registration on Zanzibar, presented TEMCO presented 
its findings to a cross section of "stakeholders." 
Conference attendees included Zanzibari government 
officials, representatives of the CCM and CUF 
parties and nearly a dozen smaller parties, NGOs and 
the Diplomatic Group itself. 
 
¶4. (U) In Zanzibar's volatile political atmosphere, 
the conference was interesting primarily for who 
attended, and how they reacted to TEMCO's findings 
and to each other.  The most encouraging 
presentation was the opening statement, delivered by 
Zanzibar President Karume.  Karume's brief and 
rather bland speech hit all the right notes about 
the government's support for free and fair 
elections, and Karume's determination to work with 
TEMCO, the donors and others to ensure the 
credibility of the PVR.  (Karume's speech might have 
caused dismay only to the diplomat who had bet a 
bottle of scotch that the embattled CCM incumbent 
would never show for the conference.) 
 
¶5. (SBU)  Karume departed soon after the opening, 
but he left his Minister for Women's Affairs, and 
several CCM party stalwarts to deliver the CCM hard 
line in the discussion sessions.  Predictably, they 
lambasted TEMCO and questioned the NGO's neutrality 
in Zanzibar's electoral contest.  Representatives of 
several of the smaller opposition parties spoke 
passionately, and at great length, to denounce the 
bipartisan Muafaka Accord signed between the CCM and 
the CUF.  It was clear that the other opposition 
parties still resent their exclusion from the 
Muafaka negotiations in 2001; about the permanent 
voters register and other reforms mandated under the 
Muafaka they had little to say.  As the target of 
most of the criticism about voter registration, the 
Zanzibar Electoral Commission (ZEC) kept a low 
profile.  The ZEC was represented only by its 
information officer, who did not speak during the 
day.  One of the TEMCO observers, however, told the 
diplomats privately that TEMCO and the ZEC 
commissioners regularly exchanged views.  One 
Commissioner had even told her he was grateful to 
TEMCO for saying what the ZEC could not say in 
public. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
. . . and Noted Problems with Voter Registration 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶6. (U) In their presentations, several TEMCO 
observers delivered hard-hitting criticisms of the 
voter registration process.  These came as little 
surprise to the diplomatic group whose members had 
also observed voter registration in the field. 
TEMCO observers cited the following problems, also 
reported extensively in reftels: 
 
-- Excessively high levels of voter registration in 
some constituencies, in some cases exceeding 200 
percent of the expected turnout. 
 
-- Evidence that the government sent members of the 
irregular security forces to register en masse in 
certain constituencies. 
 
-- Widespread interference with registration by 
government-appointed village headmen ("shehas"), in 
contravention of electoral law and ZEC procedure. 
 
-- Numerous cases in which shehas selectively denied 
individuals access to the registration centers.  In 
contravention of ZEC procedures, many of these 
individual were not allowed to document or to appeal 
their denial. 
 
-- Strong social and familial pressure led many 
individuals to register even when they were underage 
or otherwise ineligible. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
-- 
The CUF Party Lists Complaints about the Process . . 
. 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
-- 
 
7.(C) The opposition CUF party, which stands a good 
chance of winning Zanzibar's elections, did not send 
its top officials to TEMCO's conference.  Instead, 
Seif Sharif Hamad, the CUF's candidate for President 
of Zanzibar, made the rounds of Western embassies in 
Dar es Salaam the week of June 13 -17 to outline the 
CUF's concerns about the PVR and other elections 
preparations.  (Hamad met with US Emboff June 14.) 
In addition to the well-known problems with the 
voters register, Hamad listed the following 
concerns: 
 
--Hamad has publicly stated that he would concede 
should he lose a free and fair election.  Incumbent 
President Karume has yet to make such a commitment. 
 
-- The ruling CCM, contrary to the spirit of the 
Muafaka, refuses to talk with CUF.  It took months 
of effort for the CUF to schedule a June 11 meeting 
between the Secretaries General of the two parties. 
The CCM canceled it, however, after a murky incident 
in which CUF militants reportedly stoned the home of 
CCM Presidential candidate Jakaya Kikwete. 
 
-- Zanzibar's security forces, assisted by police 
from the Mainland, were clamping down on the 
opposition.  Hamad claimed that "Operation Dondola" 
continued, resulting in the arrest of 270 CUF 
supporters but nobody from the CCM. (Reftel B) 
 
-- The government has launched a crash program to 
issue an ID card to each Zanzibari by September. 
While the new ID cards are not a requirement for 
voting, Hamad worried that on election day, the 
police would check ID cards as a pretext to prevent 
CUF supporters from moving freely to the polling 
places. 
 
-- The Zanzibari Government is paying $5 million 
dollars for the ID cards, but is slow to provide 
basic operating funds to the ZEC. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
. .. and Plans a Peoples Power Campaign 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Hamad informed his diplomatic interlocutors 
that if the CCM again manipulated the Zanzibar 
elections to keep its hold on power, the CUF would 
take to the streets in a "Ukrainian-style People's 
Power campaign."  The CUF would stage massive, but 
non-violent, demonstrations on Zanzibar and in 
selected mainland cities.  Hamad said speakers at 
CUF rallies were already instructing party activists 
on tactics for non-violent protest and "avoiding 
police provocations."  Several diplomats challenged 
the CUF to list positive steps that can be taken now 
to help ensure the credibility of the October 
elections.  Hamad's to-do list included: 
 
-- ZEC should publish the preliminary voter 
registration lists for Unguja Island and begin the 
objections process there.  (Administrative problems 
have delayed the posting of the lists until the 
first week of July.) 
 
-- ZEC should contract with the South African 
company Waymark for the purchase of software to 
detect duplicate images (thumbprints and 
photographs) in the PVR's computer database. 
 
-- Foreign Embassies should issue a public statement 
of standards for free and fair elections on 
Zanzibar.  In response to emboff's questions, Hamad 
said that these standards could draw on Zanzibar's 
own Electoral Law, or on the SADC election 
standards, which the Tanzanian government has 
already accepted. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
The Diplomatic Group Contemplates Next Steps . . . 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶9. (C) TEMCO's conference and the CUF's demarches 
highlighted serious problems that could undermine 
the credibility of the PVR, and ultimately 
Zanzibar's elections.  The week's events also 
revealed Zanzibar's growing political polarization, 
foreshadowing a conflictive campaign season. 
Despite these grim developments the Diplomatic 
Group, and we, are determined not to give up on 
Zanzibar just yet.   For now, the diplomats are 
urging fractious Zanzibaris to take concrete steps 
to re-establish dialogue, reduce tensions and 
resolve problems with the PVR.  When Seif Sharif 
Hamad made the rounds of Western embassies, several 
of his interlocutors urged him to approach the 
missions of democratic African countries as well, to 
show that democratic principles are universal, and 
not exclusively Western.  At the TEMCO Conference, 
several of the diplomats in attendance encouraged 
TEMCO director Dr. Rwekaza Mukandala to emphasize 
the ZEC's role in "scrubbing" the PVR, lest the 
whole conference become an exercise in fruitless 
"ZEC bashing." 
 
----------------------------------------- 
. . .Recalibrating the Diplomatic Message 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶10. (C) In their June 17 meeting, Heads of Mission 
in the Diplomatic Group decided to stay the course 
for now.  The diplomats will continue to meet with 
Zanzibari and Tanzanian political leaders and to 
reiterate their six-point message in support of a 
credible voters register and a peaceful election. 
The UK High Commissioner suggested nonetheless that 
the Diplomatic Group make contingency plans to 
increase the political pressure if circumstances 
warranted it.  He suggested that the Diplomatic 
Group draft a joint statement, which could be signed 
by the Heads of Mission and released publicly in the 
event of an upsurge of political conflict, or of 
apparent government interference with preparations 
for the elections.  Some diplomats also suggested 
staging a joint consular visit to the isles in 
August, to assess the security situation during the 
run-up to the elections, and to consider possible 
coordination on travel advisories to their 
nationals.  Many thought that a relatively high 
profile assessment of Zanzibar's security might also 
remind the Zanzibar government that another 
conflictive election could undermine Zanzibar's all- 
important tourism sector. 
 
------------------------------------ 
. . .and Emphasizing Practical Fixes 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶11. (C)  The Diplomatic Group is also contemplating 
immediate steps to resolve problems with the PVR and 
build its credibility.  Donors from the nine-member 
Muafaka Basket are identifying funds to purchase new 
software from Waymark which would detect duplicate 
thumbprints and photographs in the PVR.  Waymark, 
the company that provided equipment and technical 
support to establish the PVR, had been working on a 
feasibility study for the software last May, when 
the ZEC abruptly broke off contract negotiations. 
Reportedly, Waymark's feasibility study revealed 
that up to 6 percent of the records in the PVR were 
duplicates; this closely held and potentially 
explosive information might have been a factor in 
the ZEC's sudden reluctance to obtain the software. 
While the ZEC now indicates that it will sign a 
contract with Waymark, the donors worry that any 
further delay could cost the ZEC the opportunity to 
eliminate dual registrations from the PVR. 
 
¶12. (C) The diplomats are also urging the ZEC to 
reopen voter registration in order to accommodate 
those Zanzibaris, perhaps numbering several 
thousand, who were previously denied access to the 
registration centers.  The ZEC has the legal 
authority to reopen registration, although it 
remains to be seen if the ZEC can better control the 
shehas during a second round of registration, and 
prevent them from again unilaterally blocking access 
to the centers, in contravention of the established 
voter registration procedures. 
 
¶13. (C) Comment:  We have not lost hope for free, 
fair and peaceful elections on Zanzibar, although 
some of these recent developments do not bode well. 
The ZEC still has sufficient time, technical 
expertise, legal authority, and donor assistance to 
resolve many of the problems with the PVR.  Although 
the Zanzibar government has a record of interfering 
with voter registration and sometimes undermining 
the ZEC's authority, President Karume still publicly 
proclaims his support for fair elections and 
unbiased electoral   assistance.  Finally, an 
active, committed Diplomatic Group is in a position 
to assist the ZEC with technical solutions, and to 
apply diplomatic pressure to hold President Karume 
to his word.  End comment. 
 
OWEN