This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 001461 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV CA NDP
SUBJECT: CANADA: PARALYSIS IN PARLIAMENT -- WHO'S RUNNING 
THE SHOW? 
 
REF: OTTAWA 001371 AND PREVIOUS. 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY: Canada's House of Commons came to a 
grinding standstill on May 12, when the opposition 
Conservative Party and Bloc Quebecois flexed their muscle by 
adjourning the daily session of Parliament, to the surprise 
of the ruling Liberal Party.  In the wake of a controversial 
"confidence" vote on May 10, legislative business in the 
parliament has become increasingly paralyzed, as all four 
parties (to include the NDP) jockey for tactical advantage in 
the run-up to an expected confidence vote that the Liberals 
have set for May 19.  The outcome of that vote may hinge on 
the support of two independent MP's, both of whom have 
wavered on their support to either the government or the 
opposition, as well as the health of at least four MP's (one 
Liberal, two Conservatives, and one independent), and whether 
any or all of them will be able to be in Ottawa.  Although 
not yet a full-blown constitutional crisis, the Governor 
General nonetheless has reportedly been seeking the advice of 
legal experts.  Meanwhile, Canada's legislative agenda has 
been stalled, and new initiatives are handicapped, although 
day-to-day government services are not threatened.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
The Confidence Vote that Did, or Did Not, Occur 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  The latest twist in the ongoing political 
maneuverings in Parliament came in the wake of a Conservative 
motion that passed on May 10 calling on the Liberals to 
resign.  The motion passed in a dramatic (if not unexpected) 
vote along strict party lines, with the Conservatives and 
Bloc using their numerical advantage to defeat the Liberals 
(supported by the NDP and two independent MP's).  The 
Conservatives and Bloc insisted that this vote was one of 
non-confidence in the Government, while the Liberals contend 
that the vote was simply a procedural matter, with Deputy 
Prime Minister Anne McLellan noting that the Liberals didn't 
even bother to have their full caucus present for the vote. 
(Comment: Although the Conservative Party has provided what 
it considers historical precedent to bolster their case that 
this was in fact a confidence vote, most experts quoted in 
the press have supported the Liberal position that it was not 
an actual confidence vote.  END COMMENT.) 
 
¶3.  (SBU) After the vote, when it was apparent that the 
Liberals would not heed the call to resign, the Conservatives 
and Bloc departed the Commons chamber en masse, several 
stating that Parliament was over, and Harper himself vowing 
that "additional steps" would be taken to deal with the 
situation.  Those steps became apparent the next day (May 
11), when the Conservatives tried (and failed) to shut down 
Parliament.  The Conservatives were more successful 
yesterday, shutting down the House at 11:00 AM, and catching 
the Liberals, who were meeting in Cabinet, off-guard, forcing 
at least one senior member of the party (Justice Minister 
Irwin Cotler) to scramble back into the house chamber in 
order to introduce legislation before Parliament adjourned 
for the day. 
 
¶4.  (U) More significant than the half-day parliamentary 
session (with some Conservatives having worn blue jeans in 
anticipation of an afternoon off), was the negative impact it 
had on the ongoing legislative business of the House: of 20 
committees that were to be held yesterday, only one of those, 
a meeting over the controversial same-sex marriage issue, 
went ahead because enough Conservative and Bloc members were 
in attendance to provide a quorum.  Nine other committees 
were canceled or discussions were held informally, while 10 
committees took statements from the public with a bare-bones 
roster of Liberal and NDP officials listening. 
 
¶5.  (U) The Conservatives were unapologetic about the boycott 
of the committee meetings, saying the move to halt the 
government's operations was a necessary step because the 
Liberals have lost the confidence of the House of Commons, 
but are refusing to resign and call an election. 
 
Paralysis?  What Paralysis? 
--------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (U) Despite yesterday's shutdown, the Liberals insist 
that their government is still at work, with Liberal House 
Leader Tony Valeri rejecting the notion that there is 
paralysis in Parliament, which prompted a round of laughter 
from reporters who had just covered the shutdown of the 
Commons by the Conservatives.  On the opposite side, Bloc 
Leader Gilles Duceppe (whose party has voted in lock-step 
with the Conservatives on this issue) says that if there is 
paralysis in the House, it's the fault of the Liberals. 
"We're not paralyzing the government.  The government is 
paralyzing the Parliament." 
 
The Confidence Vote that Will, or Will Not, Occur 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) After the dramatics of May 10, Prime Minister 
Martin announced on May 11 that a confidence vote on the 
budget would be held on May 19, noting in his statement to 
the public that a clear confidence vote was required as a 
result of recent developments (the "confidence" vote of the 
previous day).  As reported reftel, the Liberals would far 
prefer to face a defeat over the budget (which they could 
then use in the ensuing campaign), rather than have to face a 
defeat on a straight-up confidence vote. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Despite that announcement, the Conservatives 
continue to accuse the Liberals of playing games on the 
timing of the vote itself.  Among other charges, the 
Conservatives allege that the Liberals are seeking to time 
the vote so that it coincides with medical treatment required 
by a Conservative MP late next week, a charge the Liberals 
flatly reject.  The Conservatives want the Liberals to move 
the vote up earlier next week, to allow Conservative MP 
Darrel Stinson the opportunity to vote, since he's scheduled 
for cancer treatment on the 19th.  The Liberals point out 
that provincial elections are occurring in British Columbia 
on May 17, and that the Queen is visiting Canada on May 18, 
and it would not be appropriate to force a federal election 
during either of those two events.  For his part, Harper has 
said that he doesn't believe the Liberals will carry through 
with their promise to allow a confidence vote on May 19. 
 
Crunching the Numbers 
--------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Whenever a confidence vote does occur, its outcome 
will largely hinge on two factors: the attendance of four 
MP's (two Conservatives, one Liberal and one independent) who 
have been undergoing medical treatments; and the votes of two 
independent MP's whose sentiments on this issue have been 
fluid from week-to-week (if not day-to-day).  (To complicate 
matters, one of the sick MP's, Chuck Cadman, is also one of 
two undecided independents.)  On the medical front, the 
attendance of MP's is crucial, since proxy votes are not 
allowed; although NDP Leader Jack Layton has suggested that 
all sides consider "pairing" votes (in which members from 
opposite parties agree not to vote, in order to cancel one 
another out), the Conservatives have rejected this idea, 
noting that it has been abused in the past.  The 
Conservative's unwillingness to consider the "pairing" option 
(at least at this point) may suggest that both of the 
Conservative MP's will be present in Ottawa week.  McLellan 
has already declared that the Liberals will have their full 
caucus in Ottawa when a confidence vote is held (Natural 
Resources Minister John Efford missed the May 10 vote, and 
has been undergoing treatment for diabetes in St. John's, 
Newfoundland). 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Whether or not Cadman is able to appear, his vote 
is still considered undecided, since he has flipped-flopped 
numerous times.  More intriguing is the position of 
independent MP David Kilgour, who recently left the Liberal 
Party.  Although it appeared that he might support the 
Government, he has publicly criticized the government 
yesterday over its Sudan aid package.  In a not-so-subtle 
message on the need for Prime Minister Martin to 
substantially improve the military assistance proposal, 
Kilgour said that Prime Minister Martin "has a week to do 
it." 
The Role of the Governor General? 
------------------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU)  With the deteriorating situation in Parliament, 
Governor General Adrienne Clarkson is reportedly closely 
following and monitoring the situation, and has been 
consulting with leading constitutional advisors.  Both Harper 
and Duceppe have both called upon the Governor General to 
intervene, since the government no longer has the confidence 
of the House of Commons.  Harper said that the period of 
paralysis "could go on until the government of the Governor 
General is forced to admit that the government has lost its 
mandate to govern the country.  I don't know how long that 
will be." 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) The battleground continues to shift in Parliament, 
as all sides struggle to gain tactical advantage.  The focus 
now is on when and how a confidence vote will be held.  The 
Conservatives and Bloc won a small victory with their 
confidence vote win on May 10, which the Liberals promptly 
rejected as "procedural."  The Liberals then took advantage 
of Harper's insistence on bringing down the Government at 
"the earliest possible opportunity" by scheduling a 
confidence vote on their terms (on the budget) on May 19. 
The Conservatives (in particular) and Bloc would rather not 
have to vote down the budget in order to cause the Government 
to fall, given the negative ramifications that might have on 
the campaign trail, particularly in voter-rich Ontario 
province. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Instead, the Conservatives and Bloc would much 
prefer to call a non-confidence vote on an opposition day 
with a motion that refers directly to allegations of Liberal 
Party corruption and the "Adscam" scandal.  That might also 
make it possible for the NDP to vote with them in bringing 
down the Government, since Layton has declared that the NDP 
is supporting the Liberal budget, and not the government 
itself.  All of this puts the Conservatives in the somewhat 
awkward position of perhaps having to fight their own desire 
to have a confidence vote at the earliest possible 
opportunity, in order to have the vote done on their terms 
(which the Conservatives have noted in the press that the 
could do (given the Conservative-Bloc numerical advantage in 
the House)). 
 
Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa 
 
DICKSON