This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MANILA 002332 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/PMBS, INR/EAP, DRL/CRA 
USAID FOR CDOWNEY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EAID PHUM RP
SUBJECT: GRP PREPARATIONS FOR THE AUGUST REGIONAL ELECTIONS 
IN MINDANAO 
 
REF: A. MANILA 1529 
 
     ¶B. MANILA 724 
     ¶C. MANILA 682 
     ¶D. MANILA 646 
 
¶1.  (U) This message is Sensitive but Unclassified -- Please 
handle accordingly. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Summary:  With just over two months to go until the 
August 8 elections in the Autonomous Region in Muslim 
Mindanao (ARMM), there are indications that the Commission on 
Elections (COMELEC) may not be able to implement an automated 
election as was its plan.  The Supreme Court has yet to rule 
on a COMELEC petition that requests use of electronic 
counting machines impounded by the Court in January 2004 
because of procurement irregularities.  A Supreme Court 
source recently told Acting Polcouns that there was little 
chance that the Court would allow COMELEC to use the 
machines, however.  COMELEC officials insist that it could 
still conduct the ARMM election manually.  Another 
possibility is that COMELEC may recommend to Congress that it 
postpone the election.  Through a grant to the International 
Foundation for Elections Systems (IFES), the USG is helping 
COMELEC and NGOs prepare for possible ARMM election 
scenarios, as well as longer-term electoral reform.  In light 
of the controversial May 2004 election, the GRP and COMELEC 
are eager to use the ARMM election to show that improvements 
have been made in the electoral system.  So far, however, the 
jury is still out as to whether the GRP will succeed in 
running a successful election.  (Septel will review the 
political horse race under way in the ARMM and the potential 
impact of the elections on the peace process.)  End Summary. 
 
 
-------------------- 
COMELEC Preparations 
-------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) COMELEC, the independent GRP electoral body, is 
currently preparing for the August 8, 2005, elections in the 
ARMM.  (Note:  ARMM voters will elect a governor, 
vice-governor, and representatives to the 24-member Regional 
Legislative Assembly.  The last ARMM elections were held in 
November 2001.)  COMELEC had planned to use the ARMM 
elections as a test case to automate voter registration, the 
vote count, and the transmission of voting results, with an 
eye toward nationwide automation for the 2007 mid-term 
elections.  Between January and March 2005, COMELEC 
registered thousands of new voters for a new total of 1.3 
million voters in the ARMM using a new computerized biometric 
registration process.  The new system enabled COMELEC to weed 
out more than 100,000 duplicate registrants. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) COMELEC, however, still faces a significant legal 
barrier in trying to automate vote counting for the ARMM and 
future elections.  Although COMELEC purchased 1,991 vote 
counting machines in April 2003, the Supreme Court in January 
2004 invalidated the contract awarded to Mega Pacific 
Solutions, a South Korean firm.  The Court found that COMELEC 
did not follow the law nor its own bidding regulations in 
letting the contract and noted "glaring (technical) 
deficiencies" with the machines that might compromise 
vote-counting security.  The issue remains at an impasse, 
with the Supreme Court insisting that COMELEC return the 
machines, and Mega Pacific refusing to take them back for a 
refund.  In December 2004, COMELEC petitioned the Supreme 
Court, requesting permission to use between 200 and 300 of 
the machines for the ARMM elections.  While the Court has yet 
to make a ruling, a Court source told Acting Polcouns on May 
16 that there was little chance the Court would release the 
impounded machines. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) A negative Supreme Court decision would represent a 
setback to COMELEC's automation plan, but COMELEC insists 
that it still would be able to conduct the ARMM election 
manually.  "With two months to prepare, we can handle a 
manual election," Commissioner Rex Borra said in a May 16 
meeting with poloff.  However, Borra added that COMELEC was 
also considering the possibility of recommending to Congress 
that it postpone the ARMM elections if the Supreme Court 
denies COMELEC's petition.  Borra reported to poloff that 
COMELEC must decide by June 1 whether the elections will be 
automated or manual in order to make adequate preparations 
for either scenario. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) In early May 2005, Mission also sought to 
facilitate contacts between the GRP and Election Systems and 
Software (ES&S), a U.S.-based company that deals in election 
software and equipment.  The referral came in response to the 
Philippine government's expression of interest in leasing or 
buying voting machines should the Supreme Court deny COMELEC 
the use of the impounded machines.  Sources in Malacanang 
indicated to poloff on May 17 that the government is not 
inclined to pursue the ES&S option, however. 
 
¶7. (SBU) The View from Mindanao:  Poloff and DRL officer 
visited Zamboanga City in Mindanao on May 10.  Attorney Helen 
Flores, COMELEC Regional Director, told poloff that COMELEC 
headquarters in Manila was, at present, exercising tight 
control over preparations for the election.  She added that 
COMELEC's local staff in the ARMM was now minimal and that 
the COMELEC headquarters planned to send additional personnel 
only shortly before the election is held.  COMELEC will cover 
the ARMM elections from three main offices in Mindanao, 
specifically Zamboanga City (for the island provinces of 
Basilan, Sulu and Tawi Tawi), Iligan (for Lanao del Sur), and 
Cotabato City (for Maguindanao).  (Note:  FYI -- Zamboanga, 
Cotabato City, and Iligan are not part of the ARMM, though 
they serve as entrepots for commercial and governmental 
activities in the region.)  On May 16, COMELEC commissioners 
Borra and Garcillano indicated to poloff that the 
commissioners had not agreed on assignments for covering the 
election, but that they would divide up responsibilities 
soon.  A likely scenario, according to Borra, is that five of 
COMELEC's seven commissioners will each cover one of the 
ARMM's five provinces, one will handle media relations, and 
Chairman Benjamin Abalos will coordinate the entire effort. 
 
-------------------------- 
Civil Society Preparations 
-------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (U) At least two civil society organizations -- the 
Consortium on Election Reforms (CER) and the Parish Pastoral 
Council for Responsible Voting (PPCRV) -- are working in the 
ARMM to conduct voter education drives, and possibly election 
monitoring, for the vote on August 8.  Both are umbrella 
groups, representing networks of other non-governmental 
organizations (NGOs), and in PPCRV's case, local dioceses of 
the Catholic Church.  In coordination with COMELEC and PPCRV, 
CER will hold a conference on voter education in Cotabato 
City in mid-June, 2005.  The conference will bring CER's 
network together with other local NGOs, PPCRV, and COMELEC. 
The goal is to forge agreement on a voter education strategy, 
divide geographic areas of responsibility, and conduct 
training for the voter education drive.  IFES -- which is 
supporting the CER voter education drive under its USAID 
grant -- told poloff that PPCRV and its network will likely 
be able to cover effectively areas of the ARMM where 
Christians reside in large numbers, leaving CER to 
concentrate on Muslim areas.  (Note:  Muslims represent a 
large majority of the population of the ARMM; the rest of the 
population is Christian.)  IFES, CER and PPCRV say voter 
education will relay basic information on how the election 
will be conducted.  It will also inform voters of their duty 
to vote responsibly and the importance of elections to 
democracy. 
 
-------------- 
USG Assistance 
-------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Through USAID's grant to IFES, the USG has also 
supported an information technology review of COMELEC's 
modernization program.  The review, which IFES carried out 
from May 4-13, also presented COMELEC with options and 
recommendations for the conduct of the ARMM elections.  IFES 
consultants remarked that some of COMELEC's preparations 
would improve the ARMM elections' conduct, regardless of 
whether the elections are automated or manual.  Two of the 
most important improvements, according to IFES, include 
COMELEC's cleansing of the voters' list through its biometric 
registration and its decision to use a new ballot.  The new 
ballot eliminates the old format where voters had to write in 
the name of their candidates. (Note: Write-in ballots have 
been more vulnerable to misinterpretation and fraud in past 
elections.)  COMELEC will be able to use the ballot in either 
a manual or automated election scenario. 
 
¶10.  (U) Mission also plans to send teams to observe the 
elections.  Mission is also looking into the possibility of 
supporting independent election observation teams through 
such organizations as the National Democratic Institute and 
the International Republican Institute. 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) In light of the controversial May 2004 election, 
which was marred by charges of fraud, inaccurate voter lists, 
and tabulation delays, the GRP and COMELEC are eager to use 
the ARMM election to show that improvements have been made in 
the electoral system.  So far, however, the jury is still out 
as to whether the GRP will succeed in running a successful 
election.  While automation would help, it is not necessarily 
a prerequisite for a successful election.  However, COMELEC 
-- which has been stung by past charges of inefficiency and 
corruption -- clearly has to get ready to implement a plan 
providing for manual balloting given that it seems 
increasingly unlikely that automated machines will be 
available.  In light of the degree of confusion, there seems 
an outside chance that the elections might be further 
postponed, though this is not an option the GRP would prefer. 
 (Note:  The elections were already postponed once from their 
original date of November 2004 to August of this year.)  The 
good news is that USG assistance is helping COMELEC 
prioritize its efforts.  Moreover, the USG-assisted voter 
education effort appears to be moving forward in positive 
fashion thanks to the efforts of key NGOs.  Mission continues 
to urge GRP interlocutors to focus on making the ARMM 
elections a successful model that can be replicated in future 
elections. 
MUSSOMELI