This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LIMA 002249 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/2015 
TAGS: PGOV PINS PREL PE
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADERS TELL AMBASSADOR THEY WILL NOT 
SPARK CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS; PRIME MINISTER OBJECTS THAT 
THEY ALREADY HAVE 
 
REF: A. LIMA 2241 
 
     ¶B. LIMA 2222 
     ¶C. LIMA 2131 
     ¶D. LIMA 2054 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Alexander Margulies.  Reason:  1.4(b 
/d). 
 
---------- 
SUMMARY 
---------- 
 
¶1.  (C)  The Ambassador met separately with APRA leader Alan 
Garcia and Unidad Nacional legislative bloc chief Xavier 
Barron on 5/18 to express concern over reports that 
opposition parties might stretch the Constitution to sanction 
President Alejandro Toledo over allegations that he and his 
Peru Posible party engaged in fraud to register for the 2000 
elections.  Garcia and Barron assured the Ambassador that 
while the opposition parties will likely call for 
congressional votes on the proposed sanctions, these votes 
will fail and no/no constitutional crisis will result.  They 
also declared that their parties remain committed to 
preserving political and economic stability for the remainder 
of Toledo's term.  The Ambassador subsequently briefed Prime 
Minister Carlos Ferrero on these discussions; Ferrero 
complained that just bringing the sanctions to a vote has a 
destabilizing effect.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------ 
APRA'S ALAN GARCIA 
------------------ 
 
¶2.  (C)  The Ambassador told Garcia that he was worried about 
a possible constitutional conflict between the Executive and 
Legislative Branches resulting from the 5/19 debate and vote 
on sanctions against Toledo proposed by the opposition 
members of the Villanueva Committee investigating the Peru 
Posible signature fraud allegations (Reftels).  Garcia 
replied that there was no/no need to worry as, "Everything 
will come out fine tomorrow."  He emphasized that APRA is 
determined to avoid creating an image for Peru akin to 
Ecuador or Bolivia, and explained his views and strategy as 
follows: 
 
--  As a future presidential hopeful, Garcia recognizes the 
importance of avoiding precedents that could reduce the 
President's authority and provide Congress with undue power 
to remove the head of government. 
 
--  Garcia met with Toledo twice to discuss the Villanueva 
Committee investigation. 
 
--  Toledo was careless with his notes of the meeting, 
however, and these notes fell into the hands of the press, 
compromising Garcia (Ref C). 
 
--  This created political blowback for Garcia and APRA; to 
avoid accusations of collusion, they have to be seen to do 
something. 
 
--  The response decided upon was to propose Toledo's 
"temporary" suspension from office until the criminal 
investigations/proceedings against him are resolved. 
 
--  This proposal will be voted down, with at most 34 votes 
in favor (APRA's 28 and probably Peru Ahora's six 
legislators). 
 
--  Unidad Nacional will propose disqualifying Toledo from 
holding office for ten years after his term ends.  Garcia 
thinks this would be very destabilizing, with the public 
wondering why Toledo should be allowed to stay in office if 
such a sanction was merited.  APRA will not/not vote for this 
and it will fail. 
 
--  Peru Ahora's Edgar Villanueva, who chaired the committee 
investigating Toledo, will probably not/not even present his 
proposal to vacate the Presidency. 
 
--  In the end, Congress will agree only to send the 
Villanueva Committee's report to the Public Ministry 
(Attorney General) for further investigation.  This, Garcia 
said, is the best outcome. 
 
------------------------------- 
UNIDAD NACIONAL'S XAVIER BARRON 
------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C)  The Ambassador had set up a meeting with Unidad 
Nacional (UN) leader Lourdes Flores, but she fell ill with 
paratyphoid fever on the morning of 5/18, and was replaced by 
UN's legislative bloc chief Xavier Barron (the member of the 
Villanueva Committee who proposed the disqualification from 
office sanction).  Barron said that UN congressmen had 
discussed this with Lourdes Flores and would not/not take any 
steps to threaten political stability and economic growth, 
adding that UN supports Toledo finishing his term of office. 
He accused the GOP of grossly exaggerating the threat posed 
by the proposed sanctions, dismissing the latter as political 
theater.  According to Barron: 
 
--  The three opposition members of the Villanueva Committee 
agreed that Toledo and Peru Posible had committed signature 
fraud, but did not/not agree on the proposed sanctions, each 
of which had the support of only one legislator. 
 
--  Congress, in reviewing the Committee's report on 5/19, 
will address three issues:  (1) electoral irregularities, 
which are administrative violations; (2) misdemeanors and 
felonies, which are criminal matters; and (3) constitutional 
violations.  The press and Executive Branch, he complained, 
have excessively focused on the last item. 
 
--  The Congress is scheduled to devote three hours to the 
proceedings starting at 09:00:  one hour of expositions, 
followed by two hours of debate.  APRA, however, likely will 
call for a recess following the debate, and use the 
intervening period to negotiate an arrangement on voting for 
the individual sanction proposals.  Consequently, the session 
probably will not end until 20:00 or later. 
 
--  Villanueva's proposal to vacate the Presidency has the 
support of three legislators (Villanueva and pro-Fujimori 
legislators Rafael Rey and Martha Moyano) and could count on 
the support of three more at most. 
 
--  APRA will support the suspension resolution, but UN will 
vote against this. 
 
--  UN will support the disqualification resolution, but APRA 
will not support it. 
 
--  There is growing support in Congress for a proposal by 
pro-GOP Villanueva Committee member Heriberto Benitez 
(Independent Moralizing Front) to issue a public reprimand to 
Toledo, which will be a moral sanction without constitutional 
effect. 
 
---------------------- 
PRIME MINISTER FERRERO 
---------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C)  The Ambassador briefed Prime Minister Ferrero on his 
discussions with Garcia and Barron.  The Prime Minister 
expressed exasperation with the opposition parties' tactics, 
particularly with APRA's conduct.  He complained that just 
voting on the temporary suspension offends the Constitution 
and has a destabilizing effect.  Ferrero added that the GOP 
"has prepared contingency measures," such as a walk-out by 
its legislators should events in Congress take a turn for the 
worse. 
 
---------- 
COMMENT 
---------- 
 
¶5.  (C)  Calling a vote on options that violently bend the 
Constitution is potentially destabilizing; the loose 
interpretations of provisions argued today may well be cited 
down the road as precedents.  That said, the opposition 
appears to be playing to lose.  The best outcome for Toledo 
is one where the only motion to be approved sends the 
investigatory committee's report to the Public Ministry for 
consideration in its own investigation of party registration 
fraud.  The fact that the opposition, despite its dislike for 
Toledo, is working to bring that about is what keeps this 
country from becoming Baja Ecuador.  Of course, it is equally 
true that Peru might be Upper Chile if political parties 
would eschew their predilection for playing to the cheapest 
seats.  END COMMENT. 
STRUBLE