This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L LIMA 002222 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2015 
TAGS: PGOV PINS PREL PE
SUBJECT: IS IT PERU'S TURN TO HAVE A CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS? 
 
REF: A. LIMA 2131 
 
     ¶B. LIMA 2054 
     ¶C. LIMA 1953 
     ¶D. LIMA 1900 
     ¶E. LIMA 1375 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Curt Struble.  Reason:  1.4(b/d). 
 
¶1.  (C)  On the afternoon of May 17, Prime Minister Carlos 
Ferrero asked urgently to meet with the Ambassador.  Ferrero 
related that the government is seriously concerned that 
Peru,s Congress, at the instance of the APRA legislative 
block, might vote on May 19 to suspend President Toledo from 
office when it debates the Villanueva Commission,s report 
(Reftels) on fraud allegedly committed when Toledo,s Peru 
Posible party was registered.  Ferrero said that the Toledo 
Administration had obtained written opinions from six of 
Peru,s top constitutional lawyers stating that the 
allegations against the President do not support impeachment 
or suspension.  Should Congress vote in support of APRA,s 
anticipated motion, the Prime Minister said, the Executive 
Branch would not recognize the validity of its act. 
Recalling the USG,s quiet advocacy with opposition parties 
in February 2004, when the possibility of removing Toledo in 
a constitutionally-questionable fashion was being bruited, 
Ferrero asked whether the Ambassador could register concern 
with the opposition.  Ferrero said that Toledo and Alan 
Garcia had spoken about the Villanueva Commission,s report 
and had an understanding as to how it would be handled (Ref 
A).  The Prime Minister himself was talking regularly to APRA 
Congressman (and party co-Secretary General) Jorge Del 
Castillo.  Despite earlier understandings, it appeared that 
APRA intended to change its stance.  Although Ferrero said 
Unidad Nacional leader Lourdes Flores was also behind the 
effort to suspend Toledo, in response to the Ambassador's 
question Ferrero stated that the Government had not/not 
spoken directly with her. 
 
¶2.  (C)  Polcouns had separately learned on May 16 from APRA 
Congressional Bloc leader Cesar Zumaeta that the party was 
planning to vote to suspend Toledo from office until a 
criminal court could investigate the Peru Posible 
registration fraud allegations.  (Comment:  Typically, such 
an investigation would take 2-4 years, a period substantially 
longer than Toledo,s remaining term.)  Septel provides an 
analysis of the constitutional provision that APRA is relying 
upon; the provision would have to be severely contorted to 
justify the proposed action.  However, another APRA source 
earlier indicated that the suspension proposal was intended 
to pressure the government and did not reflect the party,s 
bottom line. 
 
¶3.  (C)  COMMENT AND PROPOSED COURSE OF ACTION:  The proposed 
suspension would provide a back door to remove Toledo without 
fulfilling constitutional requirements regarding the grounds 
for impeachment nor the super majority impeachment requires. 
As such, it would seriously and perhaps lastingly undercut 
legislative/executive balance in this country.  The 
Ambassador has scheduled a meeting with APRA leader Alan 
Garcia at mid-day to discuss the matter.  Unidad Nacional 
leader Lourdes Flores is not/not available May 18 due to 
illness.  We will also be talking with other political 
leaders.  It is not at all clear to us that the suspension 
scenario has legs.  However, if it were to happen, the 
resulting impasse between the executive and legislature would 
provide a tempting opportunity for this country,s radical 
elements to decide the issue through violent protests.  We 
are preparing a proposed contingency statement for Department 
consideration and have primed Embassy elements to reach out 
to the security services.  The Ambassador recommended to 
Ferrero that he bring his Ambassador to the OAS into the 
picture and be prepared to turn to that organization for 
assistance if a conflict of government branches occurs.  END 
COMMENT AND PROPOSED COURSE OF ACTION. 
STRUBLE