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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 QUEBEC 000052 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE NOFORN 
 
WHA/CAN PLEASE PASS TO H 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECIN BEXP CA
SUBJECT: QUEBEC PREMIER CHAREST VISIT SCENESETTER 
 
¶1.  Summary:  Premier Charest is coming to Washington April 
17-19 at the halfway mark of his four-year term, facing 
political difficulties at home but with his determination and 
vision for Quebec intact.  When elected in 2003, the Premier 
promised to put Quebec on a "new path of development and 
prosperity" to include lower taxes, less government spending, 
more public-private partnerships and better health care. 
Charest is moving forward with this agenda, but it is costing 
him in popular support, which now stands at a record low.  A 
staunch federalist, Charest is committed to a Quebec that leads 
in the Canadian Federation.  His twenty years of experience in 
national politics, including as a leader of the federal 
Progressive Conservative party, help Quebec punch above its 
weight in Canada.  Very much a friend of the U.S., the Premier 
in his meetings in Washington will likely stress the GOQ's 
commitment to North American trade and security.  He is keen to 
encourage more business partnerships among Quebec and American 
firms (particularly in the high-tech sector), and will also 
likely stress Quebec's attractive energy market (both 
hydroelectric and wind power).  The Premier has been briefed on 
the Security and Prosperity Partnership for North America (SPP) 
and will be interested in hearing of ways in which Quebec can 
contribute to that process.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  Premier Charest is one of Canada's leading political 
figures.  First elected as a Progressive Conservative Member of 
Parliament in 1984, he served in several ministerial posts 
(including environment) in Conservative governments.  After the 
Conservative's disastrous defeat in 1993, Charest became interim 
leader of that party, and in 1995, he became the first Quebecker 
to lead the Conservatives.  It was only shortly after the Quebec 
independence referendum in 1995 (which failed by a slim margin), 
and growing anxiety over Quebec separatist intentions, that 
Charest was persuaded to leave federal politics and join the 
Liberal party of Quebec (PLQ).  In 1998, he became head of the 
PLQ.  In 2003, tired of nine years of separatist Parti Quebecois 
(PQ) rule, Quebeckers voted in the Liberals, with Charest at the 
helm. 
 
¶3.  The background is important in understanding Charest, for at 
heart he remains a federal politician.  Charest thinks in 
national, not provincial, terms.  (During the 2003 provincial 
campaign, he let slip "when I become Prime Minister of Canada.") 
 Nearly all of his successes as Quebec Premier have been at the 
federal or international level.  Shortly after taking office, 
for example, he successfully launched a new federative 
arrangement for Canada, the Council of the Federation, where 
Canadian Premiers meet on a regular basis and hash out their 
positions on issues that are then discussed with federal 
officials.  Last fall, he brought home a victory on federal 
health fund transfers, winning Ottawa's acceptance of his 
principle of "asymmetric federalism" (i.e., the idea that 
federal policies need not be applied similarly in each 
province).  Provincial Liberals we spoke with believe that the 
Charest government's position vis-`-vis the federal government 
will remain unchanged, even if the federal Liberals lose in the 
anticipated federal election.  They argue that with a strong 
separatist Bloc Quebecois showing, any new federal government - 
Liberal or Conservative - will welcome the support of a 
non-separatist Quebec government. 
 
¶4.  Charest has been especially effective in expanding Quebec's 
field of action internationally.  Last fall, he broke new ground 
by accompanying French Prime Minister Raffarin to Mexico where 
they met with President Fox.  Quebeckers believe provinces ought 
to engage internationally on issues that under the Canadian 
constitution are within provincial jurisdiction (e.g., health, 
education).  But only Charest has been able to parlay this into 
speaking for Canada at a UNESCO meeting on cultural diversity 
(to the outrage of some in Canada's other provinces).  With a 
significant Haitian diaspora in Quebec, he has pushed for the 
province to play a role in Haiti, separate but complementary to 
that of Canada. 
 
¶5.  Charest's difficulties come into play on the Quebec 
homefront.  His party was voted into power in 2003 after nine 
years of separatist PQ rule, including an emotionally heated, 
ultimately unsuccessful 1995 referendum on independence.  During 
a televised election debate Charest asked voters whether they 
wanted a government for whom the guiding priority was improved 
healthcare (the PLQ) or sovereignty (the PQ)?  Voters backed the 
PLQ but today, as the GOQ moves forward on an ambitious agenda 
of government reform, many here wonder whether Quebeckers are 
really on board.  He has tried to dig into a host of public 
entitlements, cutting funding for university tuition, raising 
daycare fees, attempting public-private partnerships, slowing 
pay hikes for civil servants and outsourcing government 
services.  The GOQ's disapproval rating has soared, and now 
stands at a record 76 percent.  Others argue that it is not the 
changes that are causing Charest's popularity to fall, but the 
clumsy way in which new policies and practices have been carried 
out.  Charest is sticking to his election pledge to put Quebec 
on a "new path of development and prosperity" via lower taxes, 
more private-public partnerships (PPPs), and by improving the 
business climate.  As he told Radio-Canada television audiences 
April 13, "how can we say we want a modern society and tax the 
way we do?"  (Quebec taxes are said to be the highest of any 
North American province or state.) 
 
Quebec - U.S. 
----------------- 
 
¶6.  The GOQ understands the stakes for Quebec and all of North 
America as it relates to North American security.  Quebec is 
working with the States of New York, Maine, Vermont and 
Massachusetts on security-related issues.  We understand from 
DHS contacts that these relationships are working well.  In 
December 2003, VT Governor Douglas and Charest signed an MOU to 
support information sharing.  In October 2005, at Quebec's 
request, the Quebec Provincial police ("Suriti de Quebec") and 
the Vermont State Police will conduct a joint terrorist scenario 
in Swanton, VT and Phillipsburg, Quebec, entitled "Double 
Impact."  The GOQ and the Provincial police also have written 
mutual assistance treaties/agreements with New York, Maine, 
Vermont and New Hampshire and for assistance in emergency 
situations (terror attack, hydroelectric incidents, etc.).  At 
the same time, especially with Canadian federal RCMP cutbacks to 
border patrol, there is concern that some parts of the Quebec-VT 
and Quebec-NY borders are poorly patrolled.  It would be helpful 
for the GOQ to direct the Suriti to better support Canadian 
efforts to patrol the border.  The GOQ also needs to be more 
actively engaged in policing the Indian reserves along the 
border. 
 
¶7.  With eighty-six percent of Quebec's exports headed to the 
U.S., commerce will be a key theme of Charest's visit to 
Washington.  For Charest, the future of Quebec lies in more 
U.S.-Quebec business partnerships, more U.S. investment in 
Quebec, and more sales of Quebec electricity to the U.S. 
GOQ-owned Hydro-Quebec is developing more hydroelectric plants 
and has begun one of the largest wind energy projects in the 
world.   We are told that Charest also intends to highlight 
Quebec's growing high-tech sector.  In his public remarks at the 
Wilson Center, Charest will likely emphasize going "beyond 
NAFTA," taking North American security and prosperity to the 
next level.  GOQ officials have briefed the Premier on the 
results of the March 23 trilateral summit.  Particularly in his 
meetings with DHS and DOC, we expect he will be interested in 
hearing how Quebec might contribute to the Security and 
Prosperity Partnership process.  For Quebec, priority areas 
include energy (electricity and wind), the environment, and 
transportation security (including resolving delays tied to 
pre-clearance of agricultural products). 
 
¶8.  Comment:  Charest is smart, witty and determined.  Despite 
popular support for his government taking a hit, he appears far 
from embattled.  ("You've got to have a thick skin in politics 
and I've got a very thick one," he joked to an interviewer 
recently.)  Hailing from Sherbrooke, only fifty miles north of 
the Vermont border, he is fluently bilingual and at home with 
America and Americans.  He is committed to a Quebec in Canada, 
and to making Quebec competitive in North America and beyond. 
Most important, he has shown a willingness to work with us on 
issues of common concern, including energy, the environment, 
facilitating cross-border trade and security. 
 
 
 
FRIEDMAN