This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002994 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/20/2015 
TAGS: PREL PTER ETRD IN PK INDO PAK

SUBJECT: MEA SAYS ""CRICKET SUMMIT"" RE-FRAMED INDO-PAK AGENDA 
  REF: A. ISLAMABAD 5490 
     ¶B. NEW DELHI 2884 
  Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary: In a March 20 meeting with PolCouns and  Poloff, MEA Joint Secretary (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran) 
Dilip Sinha dismissed the suggestion that India had obtained  more than Pakistan from the ""Cricket Summit,"" highlighting  Manmohan Singh's vision of a new agenda for Indo-Pak  relations that transcends borders and reduces the relevance  of the LOC in Kashmiri affairs.  Sinha emphasized that the PM  has also taken a risk by pushing the notion of ""soft borders""  at a time when terrorist infrastructure remains intact on the  Pakistani side.  This will be sustainable, he argued, only so  long as the level of infiltration remains low.  Sinha agreed  that the visit produced a number of important Kashmir-related  CBMs, and although the expert-level talks in the Composite  Dialogue were not finalized, the Foreign Secretaries will  meet in August to pave the way for another meeting between  Musharraf and PM Manmohan Singh, either at the UNGA or during  a Singh visit to Pakistan.  Details on expanding rail and bus  links as outlined in the April 18 Joint Statement are still  to be worked out.  Sinha noted that the presence of Railways  Minister Laloo Prasad Yadav in the delegation that met  Musharraf served the PM's purpose of expanding the ""peace  constituency"" beyond Congress.  He also credited US pressure  stemming from the GWOT and the vast expansion of  people-to-people exchanges for the ""new"" Musharraf.  End  Summary. 
  180 Degree Change from Agra 
--------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) MEA Joint Secretary (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran) 
Dilip Sinha dismissed the suggestion in some press accounts  that India had received more than Pakistan from the ""Cricket  Summit,"" emphasizing Manmohan Singh's vision of different  kind of Indo-Pak relationship that transcends borders and  reduces the relevance of the LOC in Kashmiri affairs. 
Admitting that he had been ""surprised by how positive"" the  April 16-18 visit of President Musharraf to India was, Sinha  called it the most successful Indo-Pak summit in years, if  not ever, and agreed that the Pakistani President's behavior  in New Delhi was a 180-degree change from that in Agra in  July 2001.  The J/S noted that interpersonal vibes had been  excellent, and that the new CBMs would undoubtedly accelerate  because of the visit. 
  Cautious on Infiltration 
------------------------ 
 
¶3.  (C) Sinha emphasized that the Indian PM had also taken a  risk by pushing the notion of soft borders at a time when the  infrastructure of terrorism remains intact on the Pakistani  side.  This will be sustainable, he argued, only so long as  the level of infiltration remains low.  Although Musharraf  reaffirmed his January 6, 2004 promise not to let terrorists  operate from Pakistani-controlled territory, the GOI will  wait until the snow melts in J&K and the passes become  navigable for cross-border infiltration before deciding  whether he was keeping that promise, the J/S noted.  The GOI  has seen no evidence that Islamabad had rolled up terrorist  infrastructure, but he had ""no reason to be a pessimist at  this point.""  Sinha agreed with PolCouns that movement in the  Kashmir peace process might make it easier for Musharraf to  live up to his January 6 promise, but also noted that the  downturn in terrorism during 2004 made it easier for the GOI  to make concessions, for example on travel documents for the  Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus. 
  No Firm Dates for Composite Dialogue 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶4.  (C) Sinha confirmed that the Composite Dialogue schedule  was being ""chalked out"" and would conclude with a Foreign  Secretaries' meeting in August, but the two sides had yet to 
  SIPDIS  agree on dates for expert-level talks.  Following the Foreign  Secretaries' meeting would be another Singh-Musharraf 
  SIPDIS  session, which could be either on the sidelines of UNGA, or  possibly during the PM's visit to Pakistan, the J/S added. 
He expects the relevant economic ministries to become  involved in operationalizing the agreements for reviving the  Indo-Pak Joint Commission, but also cautioned that the trade  relationship has been hobbled by complaints on both sides  about non-tarrif barriers. 
  New Transportation Links Being Worked Out 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) Reviewing deliverables in the Joint Statement, Sinha  said India would have been ready to inaugurate the  Khokhrapar-Munnabao rail link in October, because the GOI  only has to rehabilitate a few kilometers of track, but the  date was pushed back to allow Islamabad time to upgrade its  meter-gauge track to broad-gauge.  He warned that the January  1, 2006 target start date may prove ""optimistic"" for the GOP  to upgrade over 100 kilometers.  The long-term benefit would  be a fully accessible Indo-Pak rail system, because once the  broad-gauge track is laid from the Indian border to Mirpur  Khas (the Pakistani rail hub closest to the border town of  Khokhrapar), the two national rail systems would be linked. 
""You could then take a train from New Delhi to Karachi,""  Sinha explained. 
 
¶6.  (C) The J/S reported that the two governments had not yet  worked out details for the new Amritsar-Lahore and  Nankana-Sahib bus routes, the Poonch-Rawalkote trans-LOC  link, or the increase in frequency of the  Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus service as outlined in the Joint  Statement.  He specified that the focus would be on reviving  existing routes and listed Skardu-Kargil and Jammu-Sialkot as  being ""on the cards."" 
  PM Enlarging the Peace Constituency 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (C) Sinha pointed to Railways Minister and RJD leader  Laloo Prasad Yadav,s presence in the GOI delegation as  demonstrating the PM's efforts to enlarge the Indian peace  constituency beyond Congress.  In this respect, he said,  Laloo,s political value as a participant in the talks with  Musharraf far exceeded his Cabinet rank. 
  GOI Theories on the ""New"" Musharraf 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) In response to PolCouns' probing of what was  responsible for the ""new"" Musharraf, Sinha agreed that it  resulted from a number of ""pressures,"" including Pakistan's  role in the Global War on Terror and continued US engagement  with Musharraf on the issue of cross-border infiltration.  He  also credited the initiative in people-to-people ties over  the past year that broke down psychological barriers and  facilitated the diplomatic initiatives PMs Vajpayee and  Manmohan Singh offered.  Furthermore, after ""seven years of  failed Indo-Pak policies with no pay-offs,"" Musharraf may  have felt a need to ""change for success,"" Sinha speculated. 
 
¶9.  (C) The J/S observed that Musharraf's visit was better  received in the Indian papers than in Pakistani ones, and  opined that his domestic opposition was ""restricted to  hard-liners and not widespread.""  Mainstream Pakistanis never  supported terrorism even when relations with India were poor,  and now Musharraf himself is isolating the hardliners.  The  ""new"" Musharraf had even undercut any BJP backlash by  visiting both Opposition Leader LK Advani and former PM  Vajpayee, Sinha noted. 
  Comment 
------- 
 
¶10.  (C) The MEA's ""cautious optimism"" on relations with  Islamabad has clearly begun to change to ""optimism"" after  this unusually successful visit, although New Delhi will look  for infiltration to stay low and for evidence that the jihadi  infrastructure in Pakistan is reduced, if not rolled-up. 
While the MEA remains institutionally cautious vis-a-vis  Islamabad, it has clearly fallen in behind the PM's  leadership on Pakistan policy.  Less well understood --  outside Manmohan Singh's widening circle of supporters -- is  the PM's notion of a redefined Indo-Pak relationship that  downplays Kashmir as a source of discord, asserts that  territorial disputes are irrelevant in a global economy, and  seeks to deepen the commercial and personal relationships  that could provide the foundation for a cooperative future. 
BJP leaders like Jaswant Singh warn that the UPA is ""now  getting into the deeper end of the pool"" and needs to explain  its geo-political pronouncements.  But the fact that MEA  mandarins like Sinha are now enunciating this vision suggests  that the terms of debate over India's relations with Pakistan  have started to shift. 
BLAKE  "