This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ROME 000902 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR S, D, P, NEA AND EUR; 
OSD FOR SECDEF, DEPSECDEF WOLFOWITZ AND USDP FEITH; 
NSC FOR DAN FRIED; 
CENTCOM FOR GEN. ABIZAID; 
BAGHDAD FOR AMB. NEGROPONTE AND GEN. CASEY 
 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2015 
TAGS: PREL MOPS PGOV IT IZ IRAQI FREEDOM AFGHANISTAN
SUBJECT: IRAQ/ITALY - TRANSCRIPT AND COMMENT ON 
BERLUSCONI'S TROOP REDUCTION COMMENTS 
 
REF: ROME 886 


Classified By: A/DCM SCOTT KILNER, REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). 
 
¶1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  PM Berlusconi's comments on the March 15 
edition of ""Porta a Porta,"" a popular television 
news/interview program, suggesting the withdrawal of Italian 
troops from Iraq beginning in September of this year, have 
made an impact in both the Italian popular press and in 
international media.  As is often the case, his comments were 
taken out of context in some cases and in others spun 
according to the political leanings of editors.  In fact, the 
Prime Minister's comments were not much different from what 
the Italian Government has been saying for some months -- 
Italy would like to get its troops out of Iraq sooner rather 
than later, but not at the expense of Iraqi security and 
democracy-building efforts.  Berlusconi's immediate 
reassurance to us (reftel) that there is no real change in 
Italy,s policy underlines the extent to which his surprise 
announcement is driven by imminent regional elections.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (U)  Given the sensitivity of this issue and in the 
interests of maximum clarity, Embassy is providing at end of 
this cable a transcript of our unofficial translation of the 
PM's comments.  (See Para 6.) 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  In the March 16 edition of centrist La Stampa, 
Berlusconi spokesperson Paolo Bonaiuti elaborated on the 
Prime Minister's remarks.  ""First, the Iraqi Government must 
be in agreement (with an Italian withdrawal).  Then our 
Allies must agree.  Finally the highest military authorities 
must find an understanding over procedures.  In sum, we will 
try to begin the withdrawal in September and we will seek to 
bring it to conclusion by the end of the year.""  (Embassy 
note:  The phrasing could mean either the end of 2005 or 
within a one-year time period.)  ""These are our intentions, 
but then we must take into account reality,"" Bonaiuti 
concluded. 
 
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COMMENT:  IT'S ALL ABOUT ELECTIONS 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C)  Like other national leaders, Berlusconi is finding 
discussion of an exit strategy to be an asset when facing 
elections.  What surprised us is his decision to play this 
card now, before regional elections in which Iraq will be a 
minor issue.  A growing majority of the Italian public 
opposes the continued Italian deployment in Iraq.  In the 
wake of the liberation of hostage Giuliana Sgrena and the 
shooting of Italian intelligence official Nicola Calipari, a 
La Stampa poll published this week shows 47% favoring 
withdrawal (up from 35% in February) and only 14% favoring 
remaining under current conditions. 
 
¶5.  (C)  Berlusconi's and Bonaiuti's caveats will leave the 
Prime Minister lots of wiggle room to avoid withdrawal if the 
situation in Iraq does not improve by September, and/or if 
Iraq/U.S./UK push him hard to maintain Italy's presence. 
However, Berlusconi's reassurances to us of ""no change in 
policy"" (reftel) could still run up against electoral 
reality.  In national elections next year, voters will be 
more likely to remember the ""promise"" in the headlines than 
the caveats underneath.  Watching the polls as astutely as he 
does, Berlusconi could find himself pushed into a symbolic 
withdrawal -- or more -- by the end of the year.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶6.  (U)  Begin transcript of segment of March 15 edition of 
""Porta a Porta.""  Names other than Berlusconi's refer to 
journalists who appeared with him on the program: 
 
Mario Orfeo, (managing editor of Naples daily Il Mattino): 
Both you and FM Fini talked about exit strategy. When?  What 
does it depend on? Does it depend on us, on the Americans or 
an Iraqi request? 
 
Berlusconi:  It depends on the capacity the Iraqi government 
will have to set up adequate security and police forces 
 
 
because the birth and the growth of democracy in Iraq can 
take place only if the minimally acceptable conditions of 
security are in place in the country. Therefore, we, I 
personally and deeply, talked about this with Tony Blair, 
saying we must create a precise &exit strategy8 (said in 
English), also because our public opinions are waiting for 
this communication. And we agreed that we will talk about 
this in the near future as we link this to the will and the 
organizational ability of the next Iraqi government to 
increase their capability of self defense so that we can in 
parallel and in a complementary way reduce our presence in 
Iraq. 
 
Bruno Vespa (host):  Is it realistic to imagine that we would 
withdraw after the national elections at the end of the year? 
 
Berlusconi:  I think we will certainly begin reducing the 
number of our military even before, in accordance( 
 
Paolo Gambescia (Il Messagero managing editor): 
(Interrupting)  Even before the end of the year? 
 
Berlusconi:  Even before the end of the year. 
 
Vespa:  This is news. 
 
Berlusconi:  It is our will to aim for a possible reduction 
even before the end of the year, in agreement with our 
allies, and with the Iraqi government. 
 
Orfeo:  You gave us very good news. 
 
Berlusconi: We are working on this direction because we are 
self-aware. Let's remember with pride that we are the 6th 
largest economy in the world and therefore we have to take 
responsibility for democracy and freedom in the world. 
Without democracy there is no real freedom, and without real 
freedom there cannot be growth in countries. Therefore I 
believe the commitment - as suggested to President Bush and 
the Republican majority, the American majority, out of their 
Constitution ) to assume the role of world leader, that he 
has wanted to do this, is something very positive. Only when 
we will no longer have those 30 or 40 countries where human 
dignity is not respected will it be possible to have 
countries that grow in well being. I'm absolutely convinced 
that the western countries will bear some blame if the 
sub-Saharan African countries have no conditions of well 
being. They have not been able to give themselves conditions 
of democracy, hence freedom, hence they have not known growth 
and well being. 
 
Vespa:  So, in your opinion, how many months until the first 
leave? 
 
Berlusconi:  I think that beginning in September, in the 
talks I have had with my colleagues, beginning in September 
we would like to begin a progressive reduction of our 
soldiers in Iraq. We are proud to be the third country in 
terms of number of soldiers in peacekeeping operations. We 
are the third after the US, after the UK, we are third. And 
also in Iraq our contingent of 3,300 men is the third, after 
the US and UK. 
 
End transcript segment. 
 
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