This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 001546 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/B 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/02/2015 
TAGS: PREL PTER PINR MOPS KNNP IN PK INDO PAK

SUBJECT: MEA CAUTIOUSLY UPBEAT ON INDO-PAK 
  REF: A. NEW DELHI 1282 
     ¶B. NEW DELHI 1480 
  Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary: In a February 28 conversation with PolCouns  and Poloff, outgoing MEA Joint Secretary (Pakistan,  Afghanistan, Iran) Arun K Singh was generally upbeat about  short-term Indo-Pak rapprochement, and expressed cautious  optimism about long-term sustainability of this trend.  After  sharing impressions from his recent trip to Islamabad with  Foreign Minister Natwar Singh, Singh sketched out a fairly  ambitious but realistic diplomatic agenda for the Spring,  which will culminate in a meeting between the two Foreign  Secretaries in July.  Singh ticked off a short list of 
  SIPDIS  technical agreements that he predicted would be ready for  signature then.  He added that the time was not yet ripe for  redeploying medium-range missiles, and predicted that the  PM's trip to Islamabad would probably happen not in March,  but later in the year.  Singh was enthusiastic about the  growth of Indo-Pak grassroots connections, the  Srinagar-Muzaffarabad (and other proposed) bus links, and the  upcoming India tour of Pakistan's cricket team.  He presented  the Baglihar Dam impasse and Pakistani inaction against  terrorist infrastructure as problems to overcome, but not as  risks to the peace process.  This is also Singh's final week  before he hands his office over to J/S (Establishment) Dilip  Sinha and begins to prepare for his next posting as India's  Ambassador to Israel.  Singh is one of the Indian Foreign  Ministry's rising stars, and we commend him to Embassy Tel  Aviv.  End Summary. 
  Upbeat on the Indo-Pak Trajectory 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) Opening the February 28 discussion with PolCouns and  Poloff with macro observations on Indo-Pak relations, J/S  Singh was upbeat for the short term but cautioned that it  would be ""2-3 years"" before he would say that the improvement  was sustainable, stressing that ""we need to make leaving the  dialogue more difficult.""  Pointing to the February 25-27  Pakistan-India Peoples' Forum in New Delhi as the most recent  people-to-people success, he noted that over 400 Pakistanis  joined a like number of Indians for the weekend convention. 
  Indo-Pak Agenda Remains Ambitious but Realistic 
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¶3.  (C) Turning to official interaction, Singh outlined an  ambitious bilateral agenda for the Spring.  Dates for  technical talks on nuclear and conventional CBMs, maritime  CBMs, border security issues, and the Lahore-Amritsar-Nankana  Sahib bus services would be set soon, he said, followed by  the Composite Dialogue (Siachen, Sir Creek, Tulbul  Navigation/Wullar Barrage, Terrorism and Narcotics  Trafficking, Economic Cooperation, and Kashmir).  The pending  round of talks would culminate with the Foreign Secretaries  meeting in July.  Singh specified that the MEA would focus on  a few items -- finalizing an agreement on pre-notification of  missile tests and MoUs on maritime incidents and on  accidental/unauthorized nuclear launches -- that had been  targeted for Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran's signature in  July.  When PolCouns asked about an agreement to move  medium-range missiles away from border areas, Singh responded  that it was too soon to discuss that level of CBM. 
 
¶4.  (C) Sharing his impressions of the ""immensely successful""  trip with Foreign Minister Natwar Singh, Singh described a  gradual recognition in the Pakistani establishment that  coming to closure on Kashmir would not be easy, and that  progress would have to come incrementally.  He also observed  that both governments had been constrained by their own past  articulation of the issues, and were only now breaking away  from old positions.  Asked for his impressions of the  Pakistani political dynamic, Singh remarked that dissident  voices remain, but there is a growing awareness that there is  no alternative to a political settlement on bilateral issues. 
  Keeping PM Visit in the Pocket 
------------------------------ 
 
¶5.  (C) Singh doubted that PM Manmohan Singh would accept  Islamabad's invitation to visit in March, explaining that  domestic politics would keep the PM occupied for at least the  next several weeks.  He added that a PM visit would have to  wait for the right timing, when it could ""add to the  process.""  Singh concluded that a March trip would be too  soon after the successful Natwar Singh visit. 
  Srinagar Bus to Depart on Time, Others to Follow 
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¶6.  (C) Joking that the permits and logistical details (roads  and bridges) necessary for the April 7 inauguration of the  Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus were ""driving me mad,"" Singh  insisted that the bus would depart on time.  When asked about  other proposed cross-LOC bus links, such as Jammu-Sialkot, he  cautioned that the GOI would have to wait and see how well  the first bus service goes before planning additional routes  in Kashmir. 
 
¶7.  (C) Singh saw no obstacles facing the proposed  Amritsar-Lahore-Nankana Sahib bus routes that would cross the  international border, and he predicted that those proposals  should be cleared during an April technical-level meeting. 
In the interim, two busses might be given special permission  to cross the border before the official service begins: one  on March 14 for the laying of the cornerstone for the  connecting road, and one for the April 14 New Year festival  of Baisakhi, which has added importance as the anniversary of  the establishment of the present structure of Sikhism.  ""The  two Punjab Chief Ministers are successfully running their own  foreign policy,"" Singh remarked lightly.  He was also upbeat  on the Khokhrapar-Munnabao rail service starting on time in  October, and conveyed that the Pakistanis he met in Islamabad  were also optomistic. 
  Cricket: The Best CBM 
--------------------- 
 
¶8.  (C) The best Indo-Pak CBM is cricket, Singh observed,  reporting that three Indian visa officers camped in Lahore's  Qadhafi Stadium had already issued over 3,000 visas to  Pakistanis who purchased tickets for the upcoming Indian  matches.  As a bonus, ticket-holders would be permitted to  cross the Wagha border and then be given a free bus ride  ""that will run every five minutes"" to the March 8-12 match  site in Mohali, Punjab.  According to Indian press, 10,000  anticipated Pakistani visitors are expected to begin arriving  by March 5. 
  Baglihar: Pak is Wrong, but We Will Respect Decision 
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¶9.  (C) Singh advised that the MEA planned to deliver to the  World Bank its response to Pakistan's petition against  Baglihar Dam (Ref A) on February 28.  He reiterated the  standard GOI rebuttal that: (1) Baglihar complies with the  Indus Water Treaty; (2) Islamabad's move to engage the World  Bank dispute resolution process was ""premature;"" and (3) 
Islamabad's objections are ""paranoia or political,"" not  technical.  When asked by PolCouns why the MEA was not as  politically active on this issue as the Pakistan High  Commission, Singh responded that New Delhi is taking a ""less  aggressive approach"" and ""keeping the tone low.""  He agreed,  however, that if the dispute resolution process leads to a  finding against the GOI, ""we will comply.""  Meanwhile, in a  tangible vote of confidence for New Delhi's position, Finance  Minister P Chidambaran announced that the 2005-06 Budget  includes a line item of USD 70 million for Baglihar's  construction and that adequate funds would be provided for  the following year as well. 
  Infiltration Down but Infrastructure Remains 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (C) Turning to the subject of cross-border terrorism,  Singh shared with us the GOI assessment that infiltration  remained low but there have been no GOP moves against  terrorist infrastructure, reiterating that Indo-Pak  rapprochement depended on Pakistan President Musharraf's  ""January 6, 2004 promise"" not to permit terrorists to operate  from Pakistan.  Singh pointed out that the February 24  suicide terrorist attack in Srinagar targeted the Divisional  Commissioner's office, which houses the Regional Passport  Office -- the Indian agency that is to certify and issue  entry permits for passengers on the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad  bus.  To PolCouns' question of whether the GOI was concerned  that terrorists would use the bus to infiltrate across the  border (as the BJP has charged), Singh answered that it was  not a serious threat, because the applications for entry  permits require the same information that otherwise would  have been used to obtain visas. 
  Bio-Note: MEA J/S Dilip Sinha 
----------------------------- 
  ¶11.  (C) J/S (Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran) Dilip Sinha  assumed his current charge on March 1.  Born into an  upper-caste Kayashta family in Bihar, one of his uncles is  former Foreign Minister Yashwant Sinha.  This connection has  not hampered his career under the UPA government, as FM  Natwar Singh appears to have hand-picked Sinha for his new  posting, which is one of the most high profile in the Indian  Foreign Service.  In his prior position as J/S  (Establishment), he was responsible for preparing lists of  assignments and promotions for the Foreign Secretary to  approve, as well coordinating with the J/S (Administration) 
on running MEA's overseas Missions.  Sinha was reportedly  tipped to replace Navtej Sarna as MEA Spokesman in July 2004,  but that promotion fell through.  He has served in  Bangladesh, Brazil, Egypt, Germany and Pakistan.  Career  highlights include: 
 
-- 1978 Joined Indian Foreign Service 
-- 1986-90  First Secretary (Political), Islamabad 
-- 1991-95  Director, PMO (Chandra Shekhar/Narasimha Rao  governments) 
-- late 1990s Posted to UN Mission/Geneva 
-- 2001-04 DCM, Dhaka 
-- 2004-05 J/S (Establishment) 
  Comment 
------- 
  ¶12.  (C) This was Singh's last day Joint Secretary (Pakistan,  Afghanistan, Iran).  His replacement, J/S (Establishment) 
Dilip Sinha, will overlap with him until mid-March and then  Singh will prepare for his next post as India's Ambassador in  Tel Aviv.  Singh seemed genuinely optimistic for the next six  months of the Indo-Pak agenda, even when discussing the most  contentious current issues such as Baglihar and cross-border  terrorism.  Acknowledging that the process is neither  complete nor self-sustaining, he clearly views the momentum  of the relationship going in the right direction, especially  when seen from the perspective of someone who worked the 2002  near-war with Pakistan. 
MULFORD