This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KINGSTON 000655 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CAR (BENT) 
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD AND J7 (RHANNAN) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/07/2015 
TAGS: JM PGOV PREL ELAB CMGT CVIS
SUBJECT: LABOR MINISTER DALLEY ON SEAGA, GENERAL ELECTION, 
AND LABOR DISPUTES 
 
REF: A. KINGSTON 00458 
 
     ¶B. KINGSTON 00253 
     ¶C. 04 KINGSTON 02898 
     ¶D. KINGSTON 00640 
 
Classified By: P/E Mark Powell, Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (U) On February 24, Emboffs met with Labor 
Minister Horace Dalley, who shared his views on 
former Jamaica Labor Party (JLP) leader Edward 
Seaga's departure from politics and the 
succession issues within the People's National 
Party (PNP).  He also discussed his view of the 
party's platform in advance of Jamaica's upcoming general 
election (due by October 2007), commented on recent 
difficulties he has faced with local labor unions, 
and expressed concern about the U.S. Department 
of Homeland Security's recent cap on H-2B visas. 
 
Dalley on Seaga and the JLP 
--------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) Poloff, Pol/Econ Chief, and visiting INR 
analyst met with Horace Dalley, Minister of Labor 
and Social Security, on February 24.  Dalley 
commented on the previous weekend's Jamaica Labor 
Party (JLP) annual conference (septel), and 
described himself is an avid admirer of 
long-time JLP leader Edward Seaga.  Dalley 
claimed to have made a close study of Seaga 
during Seaga's political career, adding that he owns 
a transcript of every speech the former leader 
has made.  Dalley added that Prime Minister 
Patterson has also closely studied Seaga, and 
that "PJ knows Seaga better than Seaga knows 
himself."  Dalley recounted his attendance at a 
recent farewell reception for Seaga.  He said 
that many in Seaga's inner circle were critical 
of "insincere" reformist JLP members who had 
recently praised Seaga's career in Parliament, 
when in fact they were happy to see him go. 
Dalley went on to say that Seaga was forced 
out by certain elements within the JLP, and 
that he was not ready to step down. 
 
¶3. (C) Dalley said with some confidence that the 
government would not call for by-elections in 
West Kingston until at least April, given the 
busy parliamentary schedule in the next several 
weeks.  West Kingston is Seaga's former 
constituency that seems certain to choose Golding 
as its new MP, giving Golding a much-needed seat in 
Parliament, a constitutional requirement for Golding 
to assume the official title of Leader of the 
Opposition. 
 
Patterson's Days Numbered 
------------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) On February 21 and 22, Dalley attended a 
cabinet retreat, of which he said the main focus 
was the national budget.  Dalley acknowledged the 
widely held belief that the meeting was 
Patterson's last budget planning session, and 
speculated that the prime minister would, in 
fact, step down before 2006.  In addition to 
the Caribbean Court of Justice, which is now 
being hotly debated, Dalley indicated that the 
PNP intends to table several other issues for 
discussion in Parliament, including capital 
punishment, term limits, republican status for 
Jamaica, and fixed election dates. 
 
Portia Still Popular 
-------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Dalley appeared to continue to support the 
candidacy of National Security Minister Peter 
Phillips to succeed Patterson as party leader and 
prime minister.  Dalley denied that the February 
5 PNP vice presidential election was a barometer for 
the leadership race (Ref A).  He speculated that 
Portia Simpson Miller is still the popular 
favorite, and that she finished second to surprise 
winner Karl Blythe only because not as many of 
Simpson Miller's delegates attended the February 
5 vote.  He maintains that she would have 
received many more votes had the vote been held 
at the party conference on January 22. 
 
Doing Battle with Labor Groups 
------------------------------ 
 
¶6. (C) Dalley explained that he had met earlier 
in the day with the Prime Minister and labor 
unions to settle a lingering dispute over 
striking workers (Ref B).  Dalley did not go into 
the details of the meeting, but did not appear to 
be overly concerned with the issue, despite 
previous threats by the labor unions to call for 
his job.  On February 25, the media reported that 
the parties had reached a favorable settlement. 
Of his labor portfolio, Dalley joked that he 
couldn't understand why the JLP was so anxious to 
take over the government, since going to work at 
the labor ministry was like going into combat 
every day.  Dalley has previously mentioned that 
he may consider retirement following the next 
general election (Ref C). 
 
Dalley Concerned by U.S. Labor Cap 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) Dalley again expressed his concern that 
thousands of Jamaican seasonal workers could lose 
their jobs this year, following the enforcement 
of a cap on H-2B work visas.  He asked Emboffs to 
look into the status of a proposed U.S. bill that 
would exempt certain workers.  Dalley, 
however, spoke enthusiastically about the job 
prospects that new hotel developments and the 
upcoming Cricket World Cup would bring to the 
country.  He also mentioned investment interest 
on the part of the Government of China, which he 
said plans to invest in the Sabina Park and 
Greenfields cricket grounds in Kingston and 
Trelawney, respectively. 
 
Aristide Was "a Friend in Need" 
------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Making the same argument he has made in 
the past, Dalley described the GOJ's relationship 
with Haiti and Aristide as "just helping a friend 
in need who asked for assistance."  He said that 
some within the cabinet believed that Washington 
had overreacted to the GOJ decision to allow 
Aristide to visit Jamaica "for family reasons." 
In making these comments, Dalley emphasized that 
he was offering his personal views, not speaking 
on foreign affairs issues on behalf of the GOJ. 
He assured Emboffs that the GOJ was not taking an 
adversarial position to the U.S. by extending 
Aristide an invitation to stay on the island for 
several weeks.  He added that a condition of the 
stay was that Aristide keep a low profile and 
refrain from making public statements while he 
was in Jamaica.  P/E Chief acknowledged that Dalley 
had offered his remarks on Haiti as reflecting a 
personal perspective.  He then reminded the 
minister that the GOJ had indeed acted unhelpfully 
during the 2004 political crisis in Haiti, including 
by publicly accepting at face value Arisitde's 
unfounded allegations about a U.S. role in his 
downfall, and by remaining largely unengaged in 
resolving the crisis nearly a year after Aristide's 
voluntary resignation and departure. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9. (C) Dalley's professed respect for Seaga 
demonstrates the former opposition leader's 
iconic status in Jamaica after 43 years of 
parliamentary service, and perhaps betrays the 
labor minister's conservative leanings; Dalley 
described himself as "Texan" (i.e., in favor) on 
the issue of capital punishment.  His comments on 
the circumstances surrounding Seaga's departure 
from politics and the JLP's inner strife tracks 
with comments we have heard from JLP officials 
(Ref D) and the news media.  Many of the issues 
(particularly term limits, fixed election dates, 
and republican status) that Dalley says the PNP 
plans to table in parliament are precisely those 
which senior JLP officials have said Golding 
intends to raise in the coming months.  Golding, 
however, has championed these issues since his 
departure from the JLP in 1995.  End Comment. 
ROBINSON