This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ALMATY 001081 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CACEN (MUDGE), DRL/PHD (DAVIS) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2015 
TAGS: PHUM PGOV KZ POLITICAL
SUBJECT: KAZAKHSTAN:  FRACTURED OPPOSITION ATTEMPTS TO 
UNITE FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A. ALMATY 746 
 
     ¶B. ALMATY 582 
 
Classified By: Ambassador John Ordway, reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  Against the backdrop of the liquidation of 
Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan and a split in Ak Zhol, the 
majority of the Kazakhstani opposition has united around 
former Mazhilis speaker Zharmakhan Tuyakbay as their 
presidential candidate.  The parties have formed an electoral 
bloc entitled "For a Just Kazakhstan" to participate in the 
next presidential elections.  However, Ak Zhol co-chair 
Alikhan Baimenov did not participate.  Some opposition 
figures claim that Baimenov has been co-opted by the 
authorities to set the scene for a three-way contest in which 
the opposition vote will be divided.  End summary. 
 
--------------------- 
The Opposition Unites 
--------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) On March 20, representatives of the opposition 
selected former Speaker of the Parliament Zharmakhan Tuyakbay 
as their candidate for the presidency and voted to create an 
electoral bloc entitled "For a Just Kazakhstan" (FJK).  The 
only members of the opposition not present at the meeting, 
which brought together approximately 590 delegates from 
around the country, were Ak Zhol co-chair Alikhan Baimenov 
and his supporters.  Delegates elected a 19-member presidium 
that included Tuyakbay and representatives of Ak Zhol (Bulat 
Abilov, Oraz Zhandosov, Altynbek Sarsenbaiuly), both factions 
of Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan (Galymzhan Zhakiyanov, 
Petr Svoik, Zauresh Battalova, Assylbek Kozhakhmetov), and 
the Communist Party of Kazakhstan (Serikbolsyn Abdildin, 
Tulen Tokhtasynov).  Controversial opposition figure Zamanbek 
Nurkadilov was also elected to the presidium.  Delegates also 
approved a 57-member council, which includes exiled former 
Kazakhstani PM Akezhan Kazhegeldin. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The standing room-only gathering took place early 
on Sunday morning in an Almaty movie theater, decorated for 
the occasion with an enormous "For a Just Kazakhstan" banner. 
 Delegates were primarily middle-aged or older, with only 
about 10% young people.  The crowd was surprisingly 
energized, breaking into frequent chants of "Nazarbayev ket" 
("Down with Nazarbayev") and "Zharmakhan" (Tuyakbay's first 
name).  Abdildin, who frequently presides at opposition 
events due to his seniority, called the meeting to order. 
Abilov then briefly described the purpose of the event and 
announced the members of the presidium.  He also introduced 
foreign guests, including a Kyrgyz opposition leader and the 
head of the "Pora" movement in Ukraine.  Tuyakbay gave the 
first speech -- a rather uninspiring but eloquent overview of 
the challenges facing the country, including corruption and 
poverty, and the need for the opposition to unite.  He cited 
the adoption of a new Constitution based on the Opposition 
Coordination Council's draft as a priority, and spoke of the 
need to overcome civic apathy. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Although DCK leader Galymzhan Zhakiyanov could not 
be present at the gathering, as he is not permitted to leave 
his settlement colony in Shiderty, he was given the honor of 
being the first to announce that Tuyakbay would be the 
opposition presidential candidate.  In a letter read aloud by 
Abilov, Zhakiyanov outlined the characteristics necessary for 
a successful candidacy and declared that Tuyakbay was the 
best person for the job. Subsequent speakers echoed their 
support for Tuyakbay and stressed the need for unity in the 
fact of GOK repression tactics.  A representative of 
Kazhegeldin announced that the former PM, now living in 
London, would support the opposition's candidate with "all of 
his ability and resources," noting that it would be the 
state's fault if the opposition was "forced into the 
streets." 
 
¶5. (SBU) A declaration adopted by the delegates called for 
presidential elections to be conducted in an honest and 
transparent manner, in accordance with the Constitution.  FJK 
leaders believe that presidential elections should be held in 
December 2005, as Nazarbayev was elected to a 7-year term in 
January 1999.  (Note: Through a rather tortured 
interpretation of the constitution, the GOK has consistently 
insisted that elections cannot be held until December 2006.) 
Several speakers underscored the fact that FJK is a peaceful 
movement that seeks to work within the Kazakhstani political 
system for change.  Almost all made references to the recent 
upheavals in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan. 
 
------------------------ 
But the Parties Splinter 
------------------------ 
 
 
¶6. (C)  After the liquidation of DCK (ref A), the left wing 
of the opposition remains fractured.  Zhakiyanov's supporters 
are still at odds with the Ablyazov/Kozhakhmetov camp, which 
they view as having intentionally provoked a conflict with 
the GOK.  There have been indications from the GOK, including 
public statements by Security Council chair Utemuratov and 
Mazhilis speaker Mukhamedzhanov (and categorical private 
assurances to the Ambassador by Utemuratov), that a 
compromise might be possible if DCK would renounce the 
objectionable portions of its December 11 statement. 
Zhakiyanov confidant Tulen Tokhtasynov told POEC chief that 
DCK leaders have not been able to come to agreement among 
themselves, however, leaving the party in limbo pending the 
next appeal verdict. 
 
¶7. (C) Tensions within Ak Zhol (ref B) have led to a split in 
that party as well.  The fundamental area of disagreement was 
ostensibly co-chair Alikhan Baimenov's unwillingness to work 
with the "radical opposition" through the Opposition 
Coordination Council.  After trading a series of combative 
public statements with the other co-chairs, Baimenov 
conducted a party congress in Astana on March 13 at which he 
was elected the sole chairman.  All supporters of Abilov, 
Zhandosov, and Sarsenbaiuly were kicked out of the party's 
presidium and central committee.  The change in leadership 
will require Baimenov and his supporters to seek 
re-registration. 
 
¶8. (C) Abilov and Zhandosov told POEC chief on March 16 that 
they considered the Astana congress to have been 
illegitimate, and would challenge Baimenov's actions in 
court.  They were pessimistic about the chances of success, 
however, as they claimed that the GOK had been actively 
supporting Baimenov's grab for control.  They said that local 
authorities had helped organize the regional meetings that 
selected delegates for the Astana congress, and that 
representatives of the KNB had called Ak Zhol members to 
pressure them to attend the Astana congress instead of a 
competing meeting in Almaty.  They also noted that the 
state-controlled media are treating Baimenov's faction as the 
legitimate Ak Zhol, and are not covering the meetings and 
announcements of their faction.  (Note:  We saw no coverage 
in the press of a March 15 press conference in Almaty 
organized by the Abilov-Zhandosov-Sarsenbaiuly faction.  The 
split has also resulted in the closure of the party's website 
and the "Ak Zhol - Kazakhstan" newspaper, further hindering 
their ability to get their message across.  End note.) 
 
¶9. (C) Zhandosov told POEC chief that absent GOK 
interference, the disagreement with Baimenov could have been 
resolved through normal intra-party discussions.  It became 
clear, however, that Baimenov had chosen to work with the 
government rather than remain within the opposition. 
Numerous observers of Kazakhstani politics have speculated 
that Baimenov, always the most moderate of the five 
co-chairs, is closely linked to the GOK.  Tokhtasynov told 
POEC chief on February 23 that he had always doubted 
Baimenov's sincerity, and was now convinced that Baimenov was 
working for the government to splinter the opposition. 
Zhandosov and Abilov stressed that the government's 
interference in Ak Zhol was part of a broader campaign to 
clear the field for December 2005 presidential elections; 
repeated official statements that the elections would take 
place in 2006 were simply a disinformation campaign intended 
to keep the public and the opposition confused.  They 
expressed confidence that the majority of Ak Zhol members 
would go with them rather than Baimenov.  (Comment: 
Perceptions of GOK interference may be true, but the primary 
reasons for the split rest within the party itself. 
Utemuratov and several other senior presidential aides have 
heatedly denied to the Ambassador that they have any 
involvement in the Ak Zhol split. End comment.) 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10. (C) Comment:  The degree of unity and enthusiasm for 
Tuyakbay's candidacy displayed at the March 20 opposition 
meeting was surprising and perhaps unprecedented for 
Kazakhstan -- although there remains the daunting challenge 
of maintaining unity in a very diverse group for nine (or 
more likely 21) more months.  The fact that one main 
opposition party has been liquidated and another has split 
will greatly hinder the opposition's ability to campaign 
effectively, raise funds, and get a unified message across. 
The opposition's major problem, however, is President 
Nazarbayev's deep and broad popularity.  Baimenov's potential 
candidacy is another challenge, since he is thought to be 
more popular in the regions than other opposition figures and 
 
 
could split what at the moment appears to be a minority 
opposition electorate.  End comment. 
 ORDWAY 
 
 
NNNN