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Viewing cable 05OTTAWA395, CANADIAN POLITICS AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS: THE

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
05OTTAWA395 2005-02-09 14:07 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Ottawa
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 000395 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR S/P, S/CRS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2014 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EFIN CA KCRS
SUBJECT: CANADIAN POLITICS AND INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS: THE 
STORIES TO WATCH IN 2005 
 
Classified By: PolMinCouns Brian Flora, reasons 1.4 (b) (d) 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: A tan, rested, and combative Parliament 
returned this week ready to get down to business.  The buzz 
on Parliament Hill was higher than normal as the MPs -- 
energized by their enhanced role in the minority government 
-- begin to tackle a host of divisive issues.  While most 
agree that 2005 will not see an election (although there is 
less conviction about this than previously), a range of 
issues including same-sex marriage, missile defense, and the 
budget will keep sparks flying.  It will also be an important 
year for the parties, as the Conservatives attempt to break 
out of their Western stronghold and truly go national, and 
the Bloc continues its extreme makeover as the friendly 
separatists next door.  International relations will also get 
a fresh read with the rollout of the long-overdue 
International Policy Review.  Here is our take on the stories 
to watch.  End Summary 
 
OTTAWA,S TOP TEN LIST 
--------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) Same-Sex Marriage:  Okay, of course this is a 
no-brainer in making the top ten, but it may turn out to be 
the story of the year.  Initial soundings are that the bill, 
which just had its first reading, will be debated for several 
weeks, tying up a good deal of Parliament,s attention and 
driving fissures in the Liberal and possibly even 
Conservative Parties.  It will go to second reading in March, 
on to committee, and finally to a vote in June. 
Conservatives will try to use the issue to peel off immigrant 
votes from the Liberals and to establish themselves as the 
party of &normal8 Canadians.  But if the Liberals can 
position themselves as the protectors of the Charter of 
Rights, they will trump the Conservative's ethnic minority 
politics and come out ahead.  There will not be a more 
important, or a more divisive issue, for either party.  In an 
extreme scenario, it could yet bring down the government, 
although when both Martin and Harper said in January that 
they were willing to go to elections over the issue, the 
clear message from the electorate was &you better not.8 
Elections over same-sex marriage would be the result of a 
misstep. 
 
Prediction:  Same-Sex marriage will pass by a narrow margin 
in June after a raucous debate. 
 
3. (SBU) Budget Debate:  The budget will be presented in late 
February and debated for about three weeks.  This is the only 
certain confidence vote that must be addressed and will bring 
folks off the benches in debate and ultimately in the vote. 
The opposition will have more input to the budget than under 
a more common majority government, and while there is nothing 
like the U.S. pork-barrel funding process, back-bench MPs 
tell us that there will be intense horse-trading amongst the 
parties on funding for pet programs.  The government has 
presumably learned from the experience of the Throne Speech 
and the first term, and will anticipate this by building into 
the budget the sorts of things key MPs will want.  More 
interesting will be how to manage the cuts requested by 
Conservatives (Conservatives to Bloc -- we,ll trade you 100 
million in cuts for 100 million in spending?)  Fortuitously, 
there is a healthy surplus to manage any new spending. 
 
Prediction: A lengthier and louder debate than normal leads 
to a generous social budget that passes without too much 
angst. 
 
4. (C) Missile Defense: One Liberal MP believes that PM 
Martin is waiting for the first cattle to move south before 
he presents missile defense for a vote in order to shore up 
good will among the MPs.  Others believe he is hesitating 
because he doesn,t have a clear proposal to put to the 
members.  In any case, the campaign strategists in the PMO 
continue to agonize over potential vote losses in Ontario and 
Quebec if the government declares in favor.  Either way there 
doesn,t appear to be any urgency in the matter and it is 
possible that the missile defense debate could be delayed 
until June or even later.  Martin could also be trying to 
minimize the number of high-profile issues at any given time 
that will expose fissures in the Liberal caucus. 
 
Prediction: Continued dithering with no real desire on the 
part of the government to deal with this emotional issue. 
Positive or negative missile defense vote in June, October, 
or December. 
5. (SBU) Conservative Convention: The Conservatives will hold 
their first policy convention March 17-19 in Montreal.  This 
will be a ground-breaking event that will allow the 
Conservatives to finally define exactly what the party stands 
for.  In the process it hopes to shore up its internal 
position, allowing it to break out of its Western isolation 
and go mainstream.  It will also be an informal referendum on 
Stephen Harper,s leadership. 
 
Prediction: The convention will be well-managed and will give 
a fresh shine to the Conservatives, whose place in the polls 
will most likely remain stuck in the 28-30 percent range. 
 
6. (SBU) Liberal Party Convention:  The Liberals will hold 
their convention March 3-6 in Ottawa.  The recent winter 
retreat in New Brunswick yielded five key resolutions, around 
which the party will organize the convention: 
      -- Gender-Based tax policy reform to improve women,s 
economic equality. 
      -- New climate change plans that would reduce 
greenhouse gas emissions. 
      -- Financial commitments for early learning and child 
care. 
      -- New funding for post-secondary education. 
      -- Implementation of recommendations of PM,s task 
force on active living and dignity for seniors. 
      There will also be a resolution from the Quebec 
Liberals and the Young Liberals of Canada against Missile 
Defense, which could produce some sparks. 
      The convention is not as important as the 
Conservative,s, but will showcase the Liberal Party for 
better or worse.  Coming on the heels of PM Martin,s 
appearance before the Gomery Commission, it could be a chance 
to take some of the scuff marks off the Liberal,s shoes, but 
it could also be the first chance old Chretienites have had 
to grumble since Martin was elected leader.  Martin will face 
a formal leadership review that he is expected to handily 
survive. 
 
Prediction: The Liberals will come across as more divided 
than they would like to appear.  Little of substance will 
emerge from the convention. 
 
7. (C) International Policy Review: The IPR was recently 
returned by the PM to its handlers in FAC because it lacked a 
&big idea.8  With or without a big idea, FAC was hoping to 
get the document published before the budget, since it will 
presumably support foreign affairs spending in the 
parliamentary debate.  It will probably go through one more 
draft, in which one of its core concepts will be sharpened to 
make up the new approach.  But the heart of the document will 
still be an emphasis on the army over the other services as 
the best equipped to make a difference in global hot spots 
(but without a push to develop the capabilities to go to the 
hottest of the hot spots; warm or even cold spots would be 
fine); a push to increase the size of Canada,s diplomatic 
presence; and an effort to focus Canada,s aid on fewer but 
more strategically important countries. 
 
Prediction: The draft IPR informs the budget and is used to 
support key programs, but the document itself doesn,t roll 
out until April, two months later. 
 
8. (C) International Leadership: Ottawa is searching for an 
opportunity for Canada to take a leadership role somewhere in 
the world.  Haiti has come up, as has the Middle East.  While 
still very risk averse (both politically and practically), 
Canada will continue to take on the Iraqi election mission 
through the coming rounds.  It is a challenge to take on a 
larger mission given its pinched resources and serious 
aversion to casualties, but the upsides of neutrality and 
global trust are difficult to ignore.  If Canada looks hard 
enough, and has some quiet encouragement and coordination 
(but not public flogging) from us, something may turn up. 
 
Prediction: Canada will give careful consideration to taking 
on a mid-sized mission like Haiti for the long term. 
 
9. (SBU) Elections:  This will probably be a non-story, as 
most observers do not believe there will be an election this 
year.  It should always be kept in mind, however, in what is 
now becoming cliche, that this government is always &just 
one misstep away from an election.8 
 
Prediction: No elections in 2005. 
 
10. (C) Gomery Investigation: The "Adscam" sponsorship 
scandal, in which the Chretien Government awarded millions of 
dollars in contracts to Liberal Party supporters in a 
procedure that federal Auditor General Sheila Fraser said 
&broke just about every rule in the book,8 continues to 
limp along.  The electorate (except perhaps in Quebec) 
appears to have largely forgiven the Liberals, after 
punishing them mercilessly at the polls in the June election. 
 But the Conservatives hope the investigation into the 
scandal putters forward, and continue to flog it at every 
opportunity.  The appearance of former PM Chretien February 8 
before the commission made for an interesting day, with the 
former PM defending both the sponsorship program and the 
success of his administration -- saying, in essence, we saved 
the country and its economy, now cut us some slack on the 
details.  PM Martin will appear later in the week and will 
take the tack that he didn,t know what was going on, which 
has already been damaged by Chretien's testimony. 
 
Prediction: The commission will continue to be an 
embarrassment for the government and could bring some closet 
Chretienites out in the open, exposing fissures in the 
Liberal party.  The Martin/Chretien appearance will be 
controlled for negative fallout but nonetheless a good show. 
No closure this year. 
11. (SBU) Bloc Charm Offensive:  Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe 
has been working his way around the country giving briefings 
to civic organizations, business councils, the diplomatic 
corps, basically everyone who is anyone that will listen to 
his pitch on why separation is a good thing for Canada and 
its neighbors.  He is soon to take the show overseas and will 
continue the charm offensive through the spring.  His 
meetings have received a fair amount of attention and 
generally positive write-ups.  Duceppe apparently believes 
that the in-your-face rhetoric of the past was not winning 
friends and influencing anyone for the Bloc, and this softer 
approach might be more effective.  Still, it is not entirely 
clear what he is up to, since support for separation outside 
of Quebec is so marginal and there is no identifiable group 
that would hear him out with more than begrudging politeness. 
 Bloc pollsters, however, insist that the sovereignty issue 
is slowly gaining traction outside "la Belle Provence." 
 
Prediction: Duceppe succeeds in putting a kinder, gentler 
face on separation, without noticeably increasing support 
among any groups of Canadians. 
 
Visit Canada's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/ottawa 
 
CELLUCCI