This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000826 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2015 
TAGS: PREL IN BG PK NP SAARC

SUBJECT: REACTING TO NEPAL, INDIA WILL NOT ATTEND THE SAARC  SUMMIT 
  REF: NEW DELHI 792 
  Classified By: PolCouns Geoff Pyatt.  Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary:  The MEA announced on February 2 that India  will not attend the SAARC Summit scheduled for February 6-7  in Dhaka.  Both publicly and privately, GOI officials cited  both King Gyanendra's actions in Nepal on February 1, and the  security situation in Dhaka following the violence of January  27, as the reasons for the decision.  Foreign policy  commentators noted that Nepal weighed more heavily, but the  GOI was also looking to send a message to Dhaka about the  political situation there.  Indicative of the extent of the  deliberations in calling off India's participation, PM Singh  consulted former PM Vajpayee prior to making his final  decision -- a rare instance of foreign policy bipartisanship  that came in the midst of a bitter state election season. 
Multilaterally only SAARC trade negotiations are likely to  suffer from this further delay, but bilaterally India's  decision puts off important air clearing for Manmohan Singh  with his Pakistani and Bangladeshi counterparts.  End Summary. 
  Convergence of Events 
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¶2.  (C) Explaining that it was the result of a combination of  recent developments in Nepal and concern over the security  situation in Dhaka, Under Secretary (Bangladesh) Puneet  Kundal told Poloff on February 2 that India will not attend  the thirteenth SAARC Summit in Dhaka as scheduled.  MEA Joint  Secretary (Nepal, Bhutan) Ranjit Rae remarked to PolCouns and 
  SIPDIS  Poloff that Nepal had a lot to do with it, and Joint  Secretary (Americas) S. Jaishankar added that ""Bangladesh has 
  SIPDIS  not made things any easier with their behavior.""  Kundal  added that concerns over the safety of Indian officials  traveling to Dhaka following the August 27 attack which  killed MP and former Awami League finance minister Shah  A.M.S. Kibria and reports of bomb blasts near the hotel in  which the Prime Minister was scheduled to stay, factored into  the GOI's decision. 
  No Photos with Gyanendra 
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¶3.  (C) Foreign affairs commentator, Jyoti Malhotra remarked  to Poloff that both Nepal and Bangladesh influenced the GOI's  decision, but King Gyanendra's actions in Kathmandu weighed  more heavily.  Malhotra observed that the message for Nepal  is that ""India will not stand for this kind of behavior,""  adding that when in 1999 Pakistan's President Musharraf came  to power through a coup, India did not attend the SAARC  Summit for two years. 
 
¶4.  (U) Following the GOI's strong statement against  Gyanendra for disposing with democracy (ref A), some foreign  policy watchers had speculated that his attendance at the  Summit would put India in ""an embarrassing position.""  The  ""Telegraph's"" Pranay Sharma remarked that India's engagement  with Gyanendra at the Summit would grant legitimacy to the  King's undemocratic actions.  Foreign Secretary Saran was  pushed hard on this question of who India was blaming at a  February 2 press briefing, leading one journalist to conclude  that Nepal was the ""straw that broke the camel's back."" 
 
¶5.  (C) After the GOI's announcement on February 2, Sharma  told Poloff that the GOI can point to this decision as  supporting both pro-democracy groups in Kathmandu and the  opposition Awami League in Dhaka.  Malhotra concurred, noting  that ""India stood up for its Awami League friends.""  Sharma  commented that since the August 21, 2004 attack on opposition  leader Sheikh Hasina, India had been thinking about taking  some action with respect to Bangladesh.  After the January 27  violence, some officials were urging a reconsideration of  India's attendance at the Summit, and ""Nepal just gave them  another reason.""  Indicative of the extent of the  deliberations in calling off India's participation, PM Singh  consulted former PM Vajpayee prior to making his final  decision.  This encounter represented a rare gesture of  foreign policy bipartisanship amid a bitter election season  Comment 
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¶6.  (C) The crisis in Nepal was apparently the prime  motivator in New Delhi's decision to not attend the SAARC  Summit, but certainly conditions in Dhaka did not help.  Not  having the Summit could lead to further delay on the most  important SAARC initiative, the South Asia Free Trade Area  (SAFTA), which the members had hoped to roll out in January  2006.  It also means that important air clearing bilateral  meetings between PM Singh and Pakistani PM Shaukat Aziz and  Bangladeshi PM Zia, and the PM's first trip to one of India's  neighbors, are all on the back burner for now.  For  India-Pakistan relations there is some consolation in that FM  Natwar Singh is scheduled to be in Islamabad later this  month, but for ties with Dhaka, the sinking Summit carries  more weight. 
MULFORD