This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINGSTON 000393 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CAR (BENT) 
NSC FOR SHANNON 
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD AND J7 (RHANNAN) 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2014 
TAGS: JM PHUM ELAB PGOV CVIS
SUBJECT: LABOR MINISTER DALLEY ON PNP SUCCESSION, LABOR 
UNREST, AND CCJ 
 
REF: A. KINGSTON 253 
     ¶B. 04 KINGSTON 2898 
 
¶1. Summary: On February 4, Poloff met with Labor Minister 
Horace Dalley.  On the eve of the People's National Party's 
(PNP) vice-presidential election, Dalley expressed his 
concern that internal factions could pull the party into 
conflict.  He also shared his predictions for the election 
results, and confirmed his continuing support for National 
Security Minister Peter Phillips to succeed Prime Minister PJ 
Patterson.  Dalley discussed his shaky relations with unhappy 
employers and workers, and shared his thoughts on the 
Caribbean Court of Justice and its impact on the PNP 
government.  End Summary. 
 
Predictions for PNP Succession 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2. At the PNP's annual convention on January 22nd, Paul 
Burke, Region Three Chairman, received a surprise (to his 
competitors) nomination for the vice presidency that 
challenged the four incumbents (Peter Phillips, Portia 
Simpson-Miller, Karl Blythe, and Paul Robertson), who were 
widely expected to be re-elected to their posts unchallenged. 
 The move threw the conference into disarray and resulted in 
the spontaneous huddling of the party leadership, followed by 
PM Patterson's designation of February 5 as the vice 
presidential election date.  On the eve of the vote, Dalley 
explained to Poloff that he was skeptical that the event 
would go smoothly, citing security concerns and the risk that 
the competing internal factions would cause the voting to 
degenerate into public clashes of the sort for which the 
opposition Jamaica Labor Party (JLP) has become renowned in 
the media (see Ref A). 
 
¶3. Dalley claimed confidence that Burke's surprise entry into 
the field would not win him a vice-presidential spot, but 
that the vote itself would reveal how much support each 
candidate has among the delegates, thus forecasting the 
upcoming party presidential elections.  Dalley explained that 
his support is still behind Phillips (see Ref B) who, he 
said, expected to come in third in the February 5 voting. 
The Labor Minister asserted he was confident that Simpson 
Miller, whom he called his "second choice" for party 
president, would garner the most votes. 
 
¶4. Dalley proposed two scenarios that he said might play out 
before the PNP calls for internal presidential elections. 
First, he said that Simpson-Miller could strike a deal with 
Finance Minister Omar Davies, a candidate for party president 
whose campaign has not yet gained much momentum in the public 
view.  Dalley suggested that Davies might withdraw his 
candidacy and ask his delegates to support Simpson-Miller 
instead, boosting her campaign.  Second, the labor minister 
said that, should crime continue unchecked in Jamaica, 
Phillips could be asked to leave his post as national 
security minister, in which case he would drop out of the 
race for the presidency. 
 
Labor Unrest is Not a Threat 
---------------------------- 
 
¶5. Turning to his issues as labor minister, Dalley stated an 
interest in continuing to serve in his current position.  He 
expressed little concern over recent newspaper headlines that 
report Dalley to be unpopular among both labor groups (for 
fining a group of striking workers) and employers (for 
raising the minimum wage).  Dalley said that he was not 
worried about recent calls by labor groups for his 
resignation, that the prime minister had assured him that 
such threats would not be taken seriously, and that the 
matter would be resolved. 
 
¶6. Dalley expressed concern at the current state of the U.S. 
H-2B visa program, which has historically allowed 
approximately 8,000 temporary Jamaican workers per year to 
hold seasonal jobs in the United Sates, typically in the 
hospitality industry.  Dalley explained that the enforcement 
of a worldwide cap on the number of visas issued annually 
would affect close to 3,000 Jamaican seasonal workers this 
year.  He said that his ministry is closely following appeals 
by U.S. employers to waive the cap for employees who have 
previously been granted H-2B visas. 
 
Caribbean Court of Justice 
-------------------------- 
 
¶7. On February 3, the U.K. Privy Council, which serves as 
Jamaica's highest court, ruled the government's approach to 
establishing the Caribbean Court of Justice unconstitutional 
(see Septel).  Dalley denied that extensive media coverage of 
the issue would seriously threaten the PNP in advance of the 
upcoming general elections.  He explained that any negative 
fallout from the issue was not likely to sway most voters, as 
the court is a problem for the "upper and middle" classes. 
He added that the months leading up to the general election 
amounted to a "political lifetime," and anything could yet 
happen.  He went on to say that he is not worried about the 
Jamaica Labor Party's leading candidate to succeed Patterson, 
Bruce Golding.  Golding, Dalley said, "owes too many favors" 
to the supporters who backed his ascent to party leadership, 
and Golding is now watched by them with such scrutiny that he 
is effectively "under house arrest."  Dalley added that the 
CCJ could even reflect well on the PNP, should they be able 
to broker a deal with the JLP to push it through.  The matter 
would not, Dalley said, go to a referendum.  The PNP, he 
explained, does not have a successful referendum record, not 
having won one since 1962, when Jamaicans voted for their 
independence. 
 
Trafficking in Persons 
---------------------- 
 
¶8. At the end of the meeting, Poloff delivered to Dalley a 
copy of a January 14 letter to the Ministry of National 
Security, informing them that the 2005 Trafficking in Persons 
Report would be published in June.  Dally said he would raise 
the issue within his ministry.  (Note: Dalley mentioned that 
his ministry was investigating some trafficking cases, but it 
was clear that he was referring to alien smuggling.  Dalley's 
lack of awareness, as a cabinet minister, of TIP is likely 
representative of the GOJ's level of awareness on the matter 
in general.  End Note.) 
 
¶9. Comment: Dalley requested this meeting with Poloff, urging 
that "we must talk."  However, he did not seem to have an 
explicit message to register with Post.  As in Poloff,s last 
meeting with Dalley on October 22, 2004, the labor minister 
was notably forthcoming and casual.  His comments on the PNP 
succession continue to largely track with what we are hearing 
elsewhere about the PNP race, although Dalley's confidence in 
the candidacy of Peter Phillip now appears less resolute.  In 
the week following the February 4 meeting, many of Dalley's 
assertions have been borne out: on February 5th, Phillips 
placed third in the party,s vote, although Simpson-Miller 
placed second; and on February 7, PM Patterson announced that 
he would meet with trade unions later in the month to resolve 
their dispute with Dalley.  End Comment. 
TIGHE