P 211322Z FEB 05
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6320
INFO ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE
NSC WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L  BEIRUT 000523 
 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR NEA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/21/2020 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER LE SY
SUBJECT: NABIH BERRI AUDITIONS FOR ROLE AS RECONCILIATOR 
 
Classified By: Jeffrey Feltman, Ambassador, per 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  (C)  Add Lebanese Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri to 
the list of prominent Lebanese who seem genuinely shocked by 
Rafiq Hariri's murder a week ago.  In a 2/21 meeting with the 
Ambassador that was free of his usual polemics and bombast, 
Berri vowed to play a moderating role on two fronts.  First, 
he was working to calm tensions between the Shia and Sunni 
communities of Lebanon, as he believes that whoever killed 
Hariri was intentionally trying to ignite intra-Muslim 
strife.  Second, he was trying to serve as an intermediary 
between the GOL and the opposition.  He had met earlier with 
over 40 opposition MPs and agreed, despite his own 
reservations, to accept their proposal for a vote of 
confidence on the Karami government.  But Berri expressed 
bewilderment about why the opposition would insist on a vote 
they would lose.  He expressed frustration with what he 
interpreted as opposition foot-dragging vis-a-vis the 
electoral law, when elections are "the only way to solve this 
crisis."  Berri did not launch into his usual attack when the 
Ambassador reminded him that the U.S. remains committed to 
seeing the full implementation of UNSCR 1559.  He noted 
concern with his own safety.  End summary. 
 
BERRI WISTFUL ABOUT AL-QAEDA? 
----------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C)  Against the backdrop of thousands of protestors 
streaming through downtown Beirut (via multiple ad hoc 
security checkpoints) to gather near the site of Hariri's 
2/14 murder, the Ambassador met Berri in the Parliament. 
Berri reiterated (with more sincerity than Captain Renault 
could express in the film "Casablanca") what he described as 
the "incredible shock" of Hariri's death exactly a week 
earlier.  "Is it impossible that al-Qaeda did it?" he asked 
the Ambassador, almost hopefully.  The Ambassador responded 
that we were not aware of any clear evidence at this point 
implicating anyone.  This is why it is so important that the 
GOL cooperate fully with the UN investigatory team, in hopes 
of discovering the real culprits.  Berri agreed, claiming to 
have worked personally to convince Minister of Interior 
Suleiman Franjieh of the need for full disclosure and 
cooperation with the UN team. 
 
TRYING TO EASE SUNNI-SHIA TENSION 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C)  Berri said that, while he also had no clue as to the 
culprit, "whoever did this wanted to turn Lebanon into Iraq 
-- Shia against Sunni, Sunni against Shia."  The Ambassador 
noted that Hariri's murder seemed to bring the Sunnis, Druse 
and Christians together in solidarity.  He asked how serious 
were the problems between the Sunni and shia communities. 
Grimacing, Berri did not answer directly but said that he was 
personally going out of his way to calm tensions.  That, he 
said, explained the prominent "master-of-ceremonies" role he 
assumed at Hariri's funeral.  Berri also noted that, at the 
beginning of all of the Ashura commemorations he had 
attended, he had started out with condolences to the Hariri 
family and a recitation of the Qur'an in memory of Hariri. 
He had made sure that prominent Shia MPs and clerics paid 
condolences on the Hariris, both in Beirut and in Sidon. 
Hizballah Secretary General Hassan has adopted the same 
approach, Berri said:  The Shia need to see their leaders 
honoring Hariri's memory, and the Sunnis need to see the Shia 
showing proper respect.  Berri expressed cautious optimism 
that, "without another incident," the tensions would soon 
ease.  (Newspapers in Beirut today were filled with 
photographs of Ashura marchers carrying placards bearing 
Hariri's portrait alongside Nasrallah's.) 
 
MODERATING THE LOYALISTS 
------------------------ 
 
¶4.  (C)  Berri said that he was trying to play a similar 
moderating role in promoting dialogue between the GOL and the 
opposition, which so far has refused to meet with government 
ministers.  The second "loyalist" conference, held at the 
Speaker's official residence in 'Ain al-Tina in West Beirut 
on 2/20, was intentionally moderate in tone, he said, "at my 
request."  He said that some members argued for "strong 
measures" against opposition demonstrations today, but others 
shouted down the confrontational approach.  In the end, the 
loyalists said in their communique their desire for 
"dialogue" with the opposition, words for which Berri claimed 
credit.  Shaking his head, Berri said that "I know I am the 
only one" capable of bridging the divide between the loyalist 
and opposition camps. 
 
MEETING WITH THE OPPOSITION 
--------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C)  In that regard, Berri said that, earlier on 2/21, he 
had taken the initiative to meet with over 40 Members of 
Parliament from all the key opposition factions.  While Druse 
Leader Walid Jumblatt was not there in person out of concern 
for his own security, Jumblatt sent others to represent him. 
Berri expressed some frustration that the "opposition doesn't 
know what it wants."  Do they want a Syrian withdrawal?  Do 
they want the government to resign?  Do they want to 
concentrate on free and fair elections?  Do they want to see 
an investigation into Hariris' death?  The Ambassador 
suggested that perhaps they want all of those steps. 
 
OPPPOSITION REBUFFS BERRI'S HOPE 
FOR WORK ON ELECTION LAW 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C) Berri said that he tried to persuade the opposition 
into moving quickly to debate and pass an electoral law. 
Elections, in Berri's view, are essential as "the only way to 
solve this crisis."  But the opposition claimed it would be 
"shameful" (Berri used the Arabic word 'aib) to have 
committee sessions so soon after Hariri's death.  "Why?" 
Berri asked rhetorically.  "Wouldn't it honor Hariri to pass 
a good electoral law?  Wasn't Hariri worried about the 
election law?"  Berri said that he had tried to reach out his 
hand to the opposition by telling them that, if they wanted, 
he would now readily abandon his previous hesitations and 
wholeheartedly embrace the qada' small districting in the 
current law.  "I asked Nayla Mouawad and Nassib Lahoud: 'Have 
you ever heard me before say that I am for the qada'?  I want 
to show you I want to work with you." 
 
BERRI CONCEDES TO HOLD 
VOTE OF CONFIDENCE ON CABINET 
----------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (C)  With the opposition refusing to engage on the 
election law for now, Berri said that he eventually accepted 
their insistence on holding a vote of confidence on the 
Karami government.  The Speaker said that he would schedule 
that vote on Monday.  The opposition will lose the vote, he 
said, "so what's the point?"  The Ambassador noted that some 
"loyalist" MPs, sensing the mood on the street, might in fact 
vote against the confidence.  "They still won't win," Berri 
said, "and we will have lost a week when we should have been 
working on the election law." 
 
CALLING FOR USING 
TAIF "CONSENSUS" 
----------------- 
 
¶8.  (C)  The Ambassador reminded Berri that, besides support 
for a credible investigation into Hariri's murder and free 
and fair elections, the United States was also insisting on 
full implementation of UNSCR 1559.  As the demonstrators 
outside Berri's office were shouting, it is time for Syrian 
troops to leave Lebanon.  Berri did not launch into his usual 
defense of Syria being the only chance for Lebanon to avoid 
its destabilizing demons.  "I support Taif," Berri responded. 
 "We have a consensus on Taif.  We must work from consensus, 
especially now." 
 
¶9.  (C)  In closing, Berri asked the Ambassador about the 
Embassy's security precautions.  The Ambassador responded 
that we are constantly monitoring the situation and adjusting 
our procedures and our moves accordingly.  Berri nodded, 
saying that he no longer traveled in his well-known 
Parliamentary Speaker car.  Now, he said, he has several 
armored cars with "regular" license plates.  He is switching 
among these cars, although the Parliamentary Speaker car 
still moves along the streets without him. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶10.  (C)  Having come directly from his meeting with the 
opposition MPs to his meeting with the Ambassador, Berri was 
subdued.  With the opposition refusing to deal either with 
President Lahoud or Prime Minister Karami, Berri knows that 
his role is pivotal.  We do not believe that the opposition 
has any love for Berri, either, given his fealty to Syria. 
But opposition politicians are still at this point trying to 
work within the existing system by showing respect for the 
Office of the Speaker.  Berri seems to be taking his 
moderating role seriously, especially as he did not dismiss 
out of hand the opposition call for a vote of confidence. 
(For the sake of moving beyond an anti-Syrian crisis that 
could potentially endanger his own grip on power, Berri 
probably would have agreed to just about anything on the 
election law, too.  But we suspect that the opposition is 
divided internally on what is best for legislative 
elections.) 
 
¶11.  (C)  The opposition MPs are starting from a position of 
unusual strength.  As the Ambassador and Berri met, outside 
the Parliament, stretching from the site of Hariri's murder 
to Hariri's grave, thousands of protestors waving the 
Lebanese flag under crystal clear blue skies were chanting 
for Syria to leave Lebanon.  At the time of this cable 
drafting, the GOL was, like Berri, trying to project a 
moderating influence and not fall into a trap of provoking 
the crowds.  All traffic to the city center was stopped at 
security checkpoints, but no one was being stopped from 
joining the demonstrations.  It is far from clear how 
sustainable these demonstrations will be in the days to come, 
or whether the demonstrators agree with the opposition MPs 
that it is best to try to work through the Speaker's Office 
to find areas of common ground.  We expect that many of the 
demonstrators are, in fact, more radical than most of the MPs 
said to represent them. 
 
 
FELTMAN