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Viewing cable 05BANGKOK948, THAI ELECTIONS: PROMINENT DEMOCRAT PARTY
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Reference ID | Created | Released | Classification | Origin |
---|---|---|---|---|
05BANGKOK948 | 2005-02-04 09:22 | 2011-08-30 01:44 | CONFIDENTIAL | Embassy Bangkok |
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 000948
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/04/2015
TAGS: PGOV TH
SUBJECT: THAI ELECTIONS: PROMINENT DEMOCRAT PARTY
CANDIDATES IN TOUGH FIGHTS IN SOUTHERN CONSTITUENCIES
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT J. CLARKE. REASON: 1.4 (D)
¶1. (C) Summary: Dr. Surin Phitsuwan, Democrat (DP) party
luminary and former Foreign Minister under the Chuan Leekpai
administration, is waging a tough fight for election to
Parliament in a traditionally DP Nakhon Si Thammarat
constituency. He faces a well-funded, younger Thai Rak Thai
(TRT) Party challenger. Surin, one of the DP's more
articulate and internationally known officials, told poloff
on February 2 that the TRT is using illegal campaign tactics
and legal intimidation to hobble his campaign. He admitted
that his decision to run for the constituency in place of the
incumbent, his sister, had attracted accusations of
"carpetbagging" and that this was hurting him. In a
constituency in nearby Phang - nga province, on the Andaman
Sea coast, Prime Minister Thaksin's response to the recent
tsunami disaster has won him points and could have an impact
SIPDIS
on DP incumbent Jurit Luksanawisit's chances. While no one
is willing to predict outright a TRT upset in either Nakhon
Si Thammarat or Phang-nga, DP candidates in these areas are
in the unaccustomed and uncomfortable position of having real
competition. End Summary.
PROMINENT DP CANDIDATE SWITCHES FROM PARTY LIST TO CONTEST
CONSTITUENCY SEAT
¶2. (SBU) On February 1-2, Poloff and PolFSN visited two
constituencies, one in Nakhon Si Thammarat and the other in
Phang-nga. Both have long been held by the opposition
Democrat Party, but both DP candidates are being heavily
challenged by the Thai Rak Thai party. In Nakhon Si
Thammarat's first constituency, incumbent Huwaiyda Phitsuwan
stepped aside so that her brother, nationally prominent DP
politician Surin Phitsuwan, could run for her constituency.
Most observers believe that Surin felt that Huwaiyda would
lose against the well-placed TRT candidate -- Kanop Ketchap,
son of the powerful mayor of Nakhon Si Thammarat. With
indications that the TRT was targeting the constituency as an
opportunity "trophy" seat in the DP-dominated south, Surin
asked to step in for Hawaiyda. In return, the DP offered her
a party list candidacy. Party list seats are 100 national,
non-constituency seats awarded proportionately to those
parties who pick up five percent or more of the separate
countrywide vote on party lists. Surin had held a party list
seat in Parliament before opting to run for his sister's seat.
COMPLAINTS OF "CARPETBAGGING
¶3. (C) Surin has served as an MP for Nakhon Si Thammarat
since 1986. His most recent term, from 2001 to 2005, had
been as a party list candidate. Surin is by his own
admission having a tough fight. During lunch with poloff, he
complained that his decision to run for the constituency seat
in place of his sister has evinced accusations of his being a
"carpetbagger." Surin said that the TRT machine is painting
him as essentially uninterested in working for the
constituency's interests, but rather ambitious to use the
seat for his own national political agenda. He also noted
that some of the DP voters in the constituency, upset because
he had taken his popular sister's place, were threatening to
withhold their votes from Surin.
CLAIMS STRONG TACTICS BY OPPONENTS
¶4. (C) Surin told poloff that his supporters are also being
intimidated by the TRT. His TRT opponent's father is Mayor
of Nakhon Si Thammarat. Posters for Surin's candidacy are
being destroyed regularly and, he complained, the Provincial
Election Commission has been unresponsive. "My supporters
are afraid to show their support for me in some areas," Surin
claimed. Surin said that over 4,000 voters cast their
ballots as "early voters," an unusually high number of
persons taking advantage of the procedure that allows voters
who are unable to vote on election day to vote before then.
¶5. (C) Surin said that vote buying by TRT canvassers is
rampant, with phone cards in many cases replacing baht notes
as the currency. Surin noted wryly that though voters in
southern Thailand are justifiably known to show more party
loyalty then in other regions of Thailand, money is money,
and some of his potential supporters will be swayed. In the
case of TRT, anything goes, said Surin. He added that he has
to be careful in his speeches because the TRT is trying to
muzzle him legally. Surin said that he had to appear before
the election commission the following day to explain
complaints by the TRT that he had "vilified" his opponent in
his speeches. (note: Surin told poloff that he merely
pointed out to his audience that he was for honesty and
transparency in government and that voters wanted these
values in government they should vote for him and not the TRT
candidate.)
TRT CANDIDATE SAYS POLITICS ARE LOCAL
¶6. (SBU) Surin's TRT opponent Kanop told poloff that he
will adhere to a straightforward theme: to represent
directly the interests of Nakhon Si Thammarat's citizens --
traffic, flood control, tourism development. He said he will
have the advantage of being a member of a strong government
that is able to get things done. The DP candidate would not
have the access that he would and the voters understand that,
he said. They also know that if elected he will focus on the
voters' local issues, not matters of national policy. Kanop
said that he is a "local son" who has returned to his home
town from abroad (University of Colorado Civil Engineering).
...AND TOUTS YOUTH AND "COMMON TOUCH"
¶7. (SBU) Kanop, a young-looking 32 year old, told poloff
that he is reaching out to young voters (he had just come
from a local college to meet with poloff), portraying himself
as a change from old-style politics. He said that he hoped
that the parents of young voters (voter eligibility is 18 in
Thailand) will follow their children's lead and vote for
change. Kanop added that rather than the traditional mass
rallies, he had mounted a door-to-door campaign in order to
let the voters see and hear his message up close. (Note:
That evening, former Prime Minister and DP leader Chuan
Leekpai came to Nakhon Si Thammarat to support Surin at a
mass rally. End note.)
¶8. (SBU) Nakhon Si Thammarat Election Commission members
told poloff that no election-related violence had occurred so
far in constituency one and that there had been only a few
complaints of election fraud - most made by candidates
against their opponents. Commission Chairman Somboon
Promphan expressed confidence to poloff in the commission's
ability to manage the process, having learned from experience
in the 2001 general election. They told poloff that the
commission's control over the process is stricter than 2001
and that the commission has vote fraud investigative teams
stationed in each constituency in the country.
WAYS TO A MEANS - VOTE BUYING
¶9. (C) Supha Thippharat, regional head of Pollwatch, an
Election Commission-funded organization mandated to observe
the activities of candidates, the local election commission
and related government officials, told poloff that supporters
from both sides were trying to influence voters through
handouts. One tactic was to hand prospective voters 20 Baht
notes (approx. 40 baht equals one U.S. dollar) with a unique
stamp on it. The recipient is told that if the named
candidate wins, the stamped 20 baht note can be redeemed for
a 1,000 baht note. Another tactic is to task the voter with
taking a cell phone equipped with a camera into the voting
booth to record that he or she had indeed marked the ballot
for the "right" party, allowing for payment.
EARLY VOTERS - EARLY FRAUD?
¶10. (C) Supha also noted Surin's suspicions about the large
numbers of early voters. She agreed that the number appeared
to be unusually high for constituency one. In earlier
elections about one thousand persons voted early in
constituency one. This election the number was about 4,400,
according to Supha She raised the question of possible
fraud, saying that Pollwatch had been informed that many of
the early voters had been brought in from Nakhon Si
Thammarat's tenth constituency, where numerous cases of voter
list name duplication existed. She opined that TRT had
exploited this situation and had arranged transport for these
fraudulent voters to the first constituency.
THAKSIN'S TSUNAMI PERFORMANCE HELPING TRT CANDIDATE IN
PHANG-NGA
¶11. (SBU) Another DP incumbent, Jurit Luksanawisit, is
facing a tough challenge in the first constituency of
Phang-nga province. This province, also traditionally DP as
in Nakhon Si Thammarat, was particularly hard hit by the
recent tsunami. According to Supha and other observers,
Jurit's TRT opponent, Krit Seefah, is receiving a bump in
support from voters because of what was considered the quick
and decisive actions by Thaksin's government following the
tsunami. Jurit, like Surin, is a prominent DP politician and
SIPDIS
an upset by the TRT in his constituency would represent a
real coup for Thaksin.
TSUNAMI COMPLICATING ELECTION PROCESS IN PHANG-NGA
SIPDIS
¶12. (C) Election officials with whom poloff spoke in
Phang-nga said that there has been relatively little evidence
of vote-buying and virtually no violence in the constituency.
Commission Chairman Prasoet Kuadkitchakan's biggest concern
is over the potential for voter fraud. Prasoet said that the
Phang-nga Election Commission believes that because of the
chaotic circumstances of the December 26 tsunami, large
number of those Phang-nga residents killed have not been
reported to the commission. This leaves open the possibility
of voter fraud through use of deceased persons'
identification documents. The Commission members also told
poloff that they had problems locating enough suitable
polling sites to replace those destroyed by the tsunami.
¶13. (C) Comment: TRT appears to be mounting a full court
press in these two high-profile southern constituencies.
They are traditional DP strongholds and, while no one we
spoke to is willing to predict outright a TRT upset in Nakhon
Si Thammarat or Phang-nga, the DP candidates in these areas
know they are fighting real contests.
BOYCE