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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 PRETORIA 005333 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/S/JDIFFILY; AF/EPS; EB/IFD/OMA 
USDOC FOR 4510/ITA/MAC/AME/OA/DIEMOND 
TREASURY FOR OAISA/BARBER/WALKER/JEWELL 
USTR FOR COLEMAN 
LONDON FOR GURNEY; PARIS FOR NEARY 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EINV EFIN ETRD BEXP KTDB PGOV SF
SUBJECT:  SOUTH AFRICA ECONOMIC NEWSLETTER 
           DECEMBER 10, 2004 ISSUE 
 
 
 ¶1. Summary.  Each week, AMEmbassy Pretoria publishes an 
 economic newsletter based on South African press reports. 
 Comments and analysis do not necessarily reflect the 
 opinion of the U.S. Government.  Topics of this week's 
 newsletter are: 
 -  No Change in Interest Rates; 
 -  IMF Seep Progress in Economic Fundamentals but 
 Inequality Still Problematic; 
 -  39 Percent of Manufacturers Have Closed Export Capacity; 
 -  SA's Labor Force Declines Due to Discouragement and 
 HIV/AIDS; 
 -  BEE Transactions Double Though Benefiting Few; 
 -  October Manufacturing Growth Leveled; 
 -  Current Trade Conditions Still Predict Growth; 
 -  Net Reserves Increase by 14 Percent in November; and 
 -  Union Criticizes Motor Vehicle Sector's BEE Exemption. 
 End Summary. 
 
 NO CHANGE IN INTEREST RATES 
 --------------------------- 
 
 ¶2.  The South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) Monetary 
 Policy Meeting (MPC) kept its key lending rate steady at 
 7.5 percent, mostly in line with market forecasts.  This 
 means the prime rate remains at 11 percent.  SARB's 
 governor Tito Mboweni expects inflation could increase 
 somewhat in 2005, but should remain comfortably within the 
 target range of 3 to 6 percent.  Mboweni cited the 
 following indicators as possible future reasons for an 
 increase in inflation:  (1) the decline in growth of labor 
 productivity from 3.3 percent in the first quarter 2004 to 
 0.5 percent in the second quarter; (2) the recent strong 
 growth in money supply (14.9 percent in October); and (3) 
 the high growth of total loans of the banks to the private 
 sector (15.1 percent in October).  Combined with strong 
 growth in demand in the third quarter, the MPC left 
 interest rates unchanged.  Two thirds of economists 
 surveyed by I-Net Bridge expected no change in rates, 
 while the rest forecasted a 50 basis points cut.  The 
 announcement came at the same time that the Bureau for 
 Economic Research at the University of Stellenbosch 
 released its findings of the inflation expectation survey. 
 The survey differed very little from the third quarter, 
 with overall inflation expectations remaining in the 
 SARB's 3 to 6 percent target range for a second time in a 
 row.  Source:  I-Net Bridge, December 9; Statement of the 
 Monetary Policy Committee, December 9. 
 
 ¶3.  Comment.  Even though the rand has strengthened 5.1 
 percent against the dollar in November alone, fears that 
 strong consumer demand along with wage increases already 
 negotiated being just above the 6 percent range made the 
 SARB reluctant to reduce interest rates just before the 
 holiday season.  Recent press statements by SARB Governor 
 Mboweni emphasized that the Bank would not lose its focus 
 in targeting inflation.  End comment. 
 
 IMF SEES PROGRESS IN ECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS BUT INEQUALITY 
 STILL PROBLEMATIC 
 --------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
 ¶4.  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its 
 annual report on South Africa and noted that South African 
 growth should increase over the short to medium term as 
 monetary easing, a moderate expansionary fiscal policy, 
 increases in investment and strong domestic demand provide 
 a solid base for over 3 percent growth.  The IMF expects a 
 modest increase in inflation over the next twelve months 
 and views adjustments in interest rates likely.  The IMF 
 views recent increases in South Africa's net international 
 reserves as crucial since the closure of the SARB's 
 forward book in the foreign exchange market in February 
 2004, and considers further increases in reserves as 
 desirable in order to help reduce currency volatility and 
 keep long-term interest rates low. In response to strong 
 domestic demand and the currency appreciation, the 
 external current account position reversed from a surplus 
 of 0.6 percent of GDP in 2002 to a deficit of 0.8 percent 
 of GDP in 2003; however, South Africa continues to attract 
 inflows to easily finance its current account deficit. 
 Increased government expenditures have provided counter 
 cyclical support and helped address South Africa's social 
 problems.  "The authorities agree that a government 
 deficit in the region of 3 percent of GDP should be 
 considered the upper limit of what is desirable to 
 maintain macroeconomic stability and to keep indebtedness 
 under control," the IMF said.  Universal provision of 
 antiretroviral HIV/AIDS drugs through the public health 
 system is an important example of increased government 
 expenditures.  The annual report also emphasizes the 
 importance of policies designed to reduce income and 
 wealth disparities and encourages progress in both black 
 empowerment programs and land reform as being crucial to 
 maintain social cohesion.  In order to reduce 
 unemployment, the IMF report stated that labor market and 
 tax reforms and increased competition were necessary.  The 
 IMF staff recommends that steps be considered to 
 decentralize the collective bargaining system so that 
 small and medium-sized enterprises gain more autonomy in 
 setting wages. It is, moreover, concerned that increases 
 in minimum wages have aggravated the unemployment problem, 
 particularly in the agricultural sector. "The government's 
 skills development program could be strengthened by 
 relying less on labor levies as a source of funding and by 
 focusing more on training those presently unemployed," the 
 IMF said.  The IMF staff urged that further liberalization 
 of the tax regime be undertaken and that implementation of 
 the privatization program, which has come to a halt, be 
 stepped up.  Source:  I-Net Bridge, December 2. 
 
 39 PERCENT OF MANUFACTURERS HAVE CLOSED EXPORT CAPACITY 
 --------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
 ¶5.   Thirty-nine percent of South African manufacturers 
 have closed down export capacity permanently over the past 
 two years as the rand has moved from above 13 rand per US 
 dollar in December 2001 to below 6 rand per dollar.  The 
 Bureau of Economic Research (BER) at the University of 
 Stellenbosch found these results during its survey of 
 1,100 manufacturers conducted between October 25 and 
 November 22.  Other survey results included:  (1) 28 
 percent "suffered a decline in export volumes"; (2) 16 
 percent managed to maintain export markets, if not grow 
 them; and (3) 14 percent managed to "continue growing 
 export volumes" over the past two years.  The BER noted 
 that the global economy has been in a growth phase over 
 the past 18 months, with growth being exceptionally strong 
 during the second half of 2003 and the early part of 2004. 
 In some sectors, production for export is being switched 
 to the domestic market as 25 percent of the respondents 
 indicated that this has been their company's response over 
 the past two years.  Since the manufacturing sector 
 contributed more than half of export revenues in 2003, the 
 implied loss of export capacity suggests larger economic 
 costs tied to the strength of the currency.  BER expressed 
 concern that the strong rand is indirectly fueling 
 domestic expenditure while constraining local production 
 (because of the low cost of imports) leading to unbalanced 
 and unsustainable growth.  It recommends that the South 
 African Reserve Bank (SARB) should accumulate reserves 
 more aggressively.  The SARB should also consider easing 
 interest rates to close the gap with interest rate levels 
 abroad, currently inviting volatile money inflows on the 
 capital account of the balance of payments.  When asked to 
 give their view on what constituted the optimal level of 
 foreign reserves for South Africa, 48.9 percent of the 
 survey participants said six months import cover, 28.9 
 percent said one year's import cover, 16.7 percent said 
 three months import cover and only 5.6 percent said three 
 years' worth.  Source:  I-Net Bridge, December 2. 
 
 SA'S LABOR FORCE DECLINES DUE TO DISCOURAGEMENT AND 
 HIV/AIDS 
 --------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
 ¶6.  South Africa's labor force has declined over the past 
 few years, probably because more people have given up 
 looking for work or are infected with HIV, says a new 
 report in the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) Labor 
 Market Frontiers report.  South Africa's labor force 
 participation rate, which counts the number of people 
 working and actively seeking work as a proportion of the 
 total population, dropped to 54.1 percent in September 
 2003, down from 58.9 percent in September 2000.  Official 
 figures from Statistics SA show that unemployment dropped 
 to 4.6 million in September 2003 from 5.3 million in March 
 2003, based on the narrow definition of unemployment where 
 an individual had been actively seeking work prior to the 
 survey.  The drop in unemployment was not matched by an 
 increase in total employment over that period, with more 
 people dropping out of the labor market.  The number of 
 discouraged job seekers increased the unemployed figure to 
 more than 8 million.  The SARB's report states that job 
 seekers were discouraged because of the slim chances of 
 finding a job, or because they lacked funds to search 
 actively for work.  Another likely cause for a drop in 
 labor market participation was the effect of HIV/AIDS. 
 The report points to research that shows a drop in 
 HIV/AIDS prevalence among younger people in their 
 twenties, and an increase in higher age groups, making up 
 most of the labor force.  The report also assesses whether 
 social grants have a negative incentive on labor force 
 participation, but found mixed results.  Some studies show 
 that pension payments cause an indirect effect of 
 withdrawal from the labor market.  However, other studies 
 show that a child support grant could result in higher 
 labor force participation.  Source:  Business Day, 
 December 3. 
 
 BEE TRANSACTIONS DOUBLE THOUGH BENEFITING FEW 
 --------------------------------------------- 
 
 ¶7.  Black economic empowerment deals this year increased 
 to an estimated R80 billion ($14 billion using 5.7 rands 
 per dollar) amid debate that only a small black elite was 
 benefiting from the transactions.  This was more than 
 double the R40 billion worth of empowerment deals 
 concluded last year, fuelled mainly by black economic 
 empowerment charters.  Trade and Industry Minister Mandisi 
 Mpahlwa stated that 72 percent of last year's deals had 
 involved at least one of the top six empowerment 
 companies, Mvelaphanda, Shanduka, ARM, Kagiso, Tiso and 
 Safika, adding weight to concerns that government's 
 current empowerment strategy is not broad-based enough. 
 Trade and Industry Deputy Director-General Lionel October 
 estimated that the number of recorded deals had doubled 
 this year from last year's 118.  Apart from the financial 
 sector, key sectors contributing to the huge deal-making 
 this year included information technology, retail and 
 manufacturing.  Mpahlwa said the average reported value of 
 all the transactions last year was R515.3 million ($90 
 million), and the largest transaction in terms of rand 
 value last year was the ARMGold and Avmin deal worth R10.6 
 billion ($1.86 billion).  The use of vendor financing, 
 inflows of foreign capital and the involvement of the 
 Industrial Development Corporation were among the 
 financing mechanisms used.  Source:  Business Day, 
 December 7. 
 
 OCTOBER MANUFACTURING GROWTH LEVELS 
 ----------------------------------- 
 
 ¶8.  Both manufacturing production and sales declined on a 
 monthly basis (seasonally adjusted) at -0.7 and -1.0 
 percent, although when compared to figures from last 
 October, they grew 5.3 and 11.4 percent respectively. 
 October 2004's year-on-year growth shows high growth 
 compared to a low base last October.  The manufacturing 
 sector experienced a recession from April 2003 to February 
 2004, and October 2003's manufacturing production declined 
 by 2.3 percent.  On a quarterly basis, 7 out of 10 sectors 
 reported improvements, with the greatest contribution to 
 manufacturing output growth coming from food and 
 beverages.  Production growth was also strong in the motor 
 vehicle, paper, wood, and furniture industries.  The 
 textile sector and communication equipment reported the 
 largest decline in both production and sales, as 
 competition from cheaper imports is especially severe in 
 these industries.  Source:  Standard Bank, Manufacturing 
 Unpacked December 7; Business Day, December 8. 
 
 CURRENT TRADE CONDITIONS STILL PREDICT GROWTH 
 --------------------------------------------- 
 
 ¶9.  Started in 2000, the South African Chamber of Commerce 
 and Standard Bank publish two monthly trade indices 
 measuring South African trade activity and expectations. 
 November's indices still indicate growth, although 
 expectations have marginally decreased from October's 
 level.  The trade activity index increased to 56 compared 
 to October's level of 50, with sales volumes and new 
 orders showing the highest growth in November.  Sales 
 volumes indicate strong November growth even when 
 seasonally adjusted, confirming that domestic demand 
 growth remains quite strong.  The survey showed that 
 inflation (selling prices) slowed in November, although 
 purchase prices (prices of inputs) increased.  Since 2000, 
 the employment component of the activity index has rarely 
 exceeded 50, a value indicating expansion in employment. 
 November's value of 51 indicates modest expansion, 
 although employment growth may reflect seasonal increased 
 hiring.  The trade expectations index also predicts 
 expansion at 60, although it has declined marginally from 
 September and October's values of 63 and 61 respectively. 
 There is strong expectation that growth in both sales 
 volumes and new orders will increase over the medium term, 
 although not as strong as in October.  Traders expect that 
 both selling and purchasing prices will increase over the 
 medium term, with selling price increases moderating. 
 Employment prospects remain positive at 53, the fourth 
 consecutive month of expanding employment expectations. 
 Source:  Standard Bank, SATMI, December 7; Business Day, 
 December 8. 
 
 NET RESERVES INCREASE BY 14 PERCENT IN NOVEMBER 
 --------------------------------------------- -- 
 
 ¶10.  The South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) net reserves 
 increased by 14 percent in November to $11.02 billion. 
 The SARB increased its purchases to $1.3 billion compared 
 to its October purchase of $962 million.  Gross gold and 
 foreign exchange reserves increased to $14.425 billion 
 compared to October's level of $13 billion.  According to 
 Nedcor economist Magan Mistry, the current level of 
 reserves will cover about four months of imports and 
 Mistry expects that the bank will continue to increase 
 reserves until six months of imports are covered.  On 
 average, the rand appreciated 5.1 percent against the 
 dollar in November, and with continuing rand strength and 
 higher gold prices, further increases in reserves are 
 expected in December.  Source:  Standard Bank, Foreign 
 Reserves Alert, December 7; Business Report, December 8. 
 
 UNION CRITICIZES MOTOR VEHICLE SECTOR'S BEE EXEMPTION 
 --------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
 ¶11.  The National Union of Metalworkers of SA (NUMSA) has 
 criticized the motor sector's original equipment 
 manufacturers' exemption from Black Economic Empowerment 
 (BEE) since the companies were not South African-based. 
 In October, Trade and Industry Minister Mpahlwa stated 
 that the government would allow multinationals in the 
 motor vehicle sector to commit to their own BEE 
 initiatives rather than forcing them into a single 
 approach.  Since multinationals comprised the majority of 
 the vehicle assembly and component manufacturing sectors 
 and alliances were formed with both upstream and 
 downstream producers, government was open to negotiation 
 regarding BEE ownership requirements for original 
 equipment manufacturers.  NUMSA views that since these 
 companies derive benefits from the government's motor 
 industry development program, they should not be exempt 
 from following the government's BEE policies.  NUMSA wants 
 to establish an empowerment charter, code of conduct, 
 standards and monitoring mechanisms for the industry as a 
 whole.  Nico Vermeulen, executive director of the National 
 Association of Automobile Manufacturers of SA reported 
 that representatives of the motor vehicle industry were 
 finalizing a sectoral approach to BEE and expects 
 additional discussion with all stakeholders in the near 
 future.  Source:  Business Report, December 8. 
 
 FRAZER