This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000949 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/ANP 
NSC FOR GREEN, JONES 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2014 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MNUC NZ
SUBJECT: NEW ZEALAND LABOUR PARTY CAUTIOUSLY CONFIDENT ON 
2005 ELECTION CHANCES 
 
REF: WELLINGTON 889 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR KATHERINE B. HADDA, 
FOR REASONS 1.4(B,D) 
 
Summary 
 ------- 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary: New Zealand's governing Labour Party held 
its annual conference, November 12 ) 14 in Auckland. 
Foreign affairs and trade featured prominently, and Clark 
noted that priorities over a Third term would include the 
following: new trade and economic links, especially FTAs or 
arrangements with ASEAN and India; a focus on sustainable 
development, within the framework of the Kyoto Protocol; and 
continued "peace and security work," with an emphasis on the 
Pacific.  Labour left no doubts on its commitment to NZ's 
anti-nuclear legislation, while Senior Labour leaders 
reconfirmed the party's multi-lateralist and consensus-based 
foreign policy approach.  The conference's headline 
initiative, which was leaked to the press a week earlier, was 
the creation of an all-party select committee to do a 
stocktake of New Zealand's constitutional arrangements. 
Overall, Helen Clark's Labour Party believes it is firmly in 
control of New Zealand and, barring economic downturn or 
scandal, is well-positioned for the 2005 election.  End 
summary. 
 
¶2. (U) New Zealand's governing Labour Party held its annual 
conference, November 12 ) 14 in Auckland.  Clark's keynote 
address encouraged an air of celebration, claiming credit for 
New Zealand's economic growth, lower unemployment, rising 
education standards, better access to health care, and 
falling crime rates.  Not surprisingly, these mirror exactly 
the five issue areas the Opposition National Party has chosen 
to attack.  But in comparison with an overwhelmingly 
confident 2003 Conference, Labour tempered its highlight of 
achievements over the past year and increasingly positive 
poll ratings with a warning by Prime Minister Helen Clark 
that there is "no room for complacency."  Clark pointedly 
referenced the disarray in the Labour Party Caucus of the 
1980s, noting that New Zealanders are "looking for stability, 
predictability, and a commitment to the basics." 
 
Labour Strongly Reaffirms Anti-Nuclear Stance 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (C) In contrast to the Conference of 2003, which focused 
primarily on domestic governance issues, foreign affairs and 
trade were central issues at this year's gathering.  Clark 
noted that priorities over a Third term would include the 
following: new trade and economic links, especially FTAs or 
arrangements with ASEAN and India; a focus on sustainable 
development, within the framework of the Kyoto Protocol; and 
continued "peace and security work," with an emphasis on the 
Pacific.  Clark also left no room for doubt of her 
anti-nuclear credentials, stating "let's be clear; under a 
Labour-led government, there will be no revisiting of our 
nuclear free status.  It won't be gone by lunchtime or any 
other time."  All Conference attendees received anti-nuclear 
bumper stickers in their packs, and in discussions with 
delegates, Poloff was repeatedly told that the issue was 
closely related to Kiwi national identity and the U.S. should 
cease pressure on NZ to affect a change. 
 
¶4. (C) Senior Labour leaders including Foreign Minister Phil 
Goff and Trade Minister Jim Sutton reconfirmed the party's 
multi-lateralist and consensus-based foreign policy.  An 
experimental session that featured a policy paper on New 
Zealand's foreign policy direction included a mention of the 
importance NZ's anti-nuclear policies have played in the 
past.  (Note: A copy of the policy paper has been faxed to 
EAP/ANP.) 
 
1 New Initiative ) Lots of Hints For 3rd Term 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) The conference's headline initiative, which was leaked 
to the press a week earlier, was the creation of an all-party 
select committee, chaired by United Future leader Peter 
Dunne, to do a stocktake of New Zealand's constitutional 
arrangements.  (NB: NZ's constitution is currently comprised 
of certain key pieces of legislation, and some include the 
Treaty of Waitangi of 1840, under which Maori agreed to 
British rule in exchange for British citizenship and other 
rights.)  Opposition parties decried the proposal.  The 
National Party called it a pre-election distraction from the 
issues of race relations, raised by National's leader Don 
Brash in January, to great public support.  NZ First called 
the idea a "road to nowhere." 
¶6. (U) In keeping with its mantra of stability and caution, 
no other new initiatives were advanced by Labour over the 
weekend, and Clark's speech focused on multi-year programs 
announced over the past 12 months.  These include increasing 
levels of government support for working families (fully 
funded by 2007), an additional week of paid leave for workers 
(by 2007), and a broadening of the superannuation program for 
government employees. 
 
¶7. (U) Hints for future programs reflected Labour's 
pre-election push to broaden their appeal to average, 
working-class voters.  They hinted at policies such as 
building the asset base and savings capacity of average 
Kiwis, providing support for families with children in 
tertiary education, and crafting a non-compulsory 
superannuation program for private sector workers. 
 
"Many A Slip Twixt the Cup And The Lip" 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Reinforcing Clark's cautions on complacency, her 
keynote suffered an unscripted intervention by protesters 
calling for the release of imprisoned asylum-seeker Ahmed 
Zaoui.  The protest highlights Labour's vulnerability on 
certain key issues, including human rights and Maori affairs. 
 With a vote coming up this week on controversial 
legislation, which would vest ownership of the foreshore and 
seabed with the GoNZ, Party members repeated thanks to the 
Maori Caucus for its support was duly noted by Maori 
delegates and MPs alike. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9.  (C) Comment: Helen Clark's Labour Party believes it is 
firmly in control of New Zealand.  Barring economic downturn 
or scandal, the Party is well-positioned for the 2005 
election.  But Labour knows it must remain squarely 
positioned over NZ's political center, or risk a more 
significant challenge from National.  Clark's keynote speech 
therefore emphasized Labour's delivery of stability and 
economic prosperity, as well as directly addressing issues 
the Opposition had staked out as areas of weakness.  With the 
opposition unable to gain traction from Labour's blunders, 
Labour has again proved its strength as a strongly unified 
party, a credit to Clark's leadership, especially as recent 
allegations surrounding Maori MP John Tamihere (Reftel) 
threatened to derail Labour's Conference.  NZ's anti-nuclear 
legislation featured more prominently than in previous years, 
largely a reflection of National's release of a discussion 
paper on the issue.  While the message from Labour was clear 
) we will not change- the Party's need to mention this may 
indicated that discussion of the issue is gaining traction. 
End comment. 
 
¶7. (U) The text of Helen Clark's speech and the Labour Party 
Draft Working Paper on Foreign Policy can be found at Embassy 
Wellington's Classified Website. 
Swindells