This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 TAIPEI 003562 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2014 
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: LY ELECTION PREVIEW: A TIGHT RACE IN TAIPEI COUNTY 
 
REF: A. TAIPEI 03340 
 
     ¶B. TAIPEI 03414 
 
Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: Taipei County, with its 28 seats (one more 
than last election), will be the site of fierce fighting in 
the election battle for a majority in the Legislative Yuan 
this December.  The Pan-Blue parties have shown remarkable 
restraint in coordinating their nominations, resulting in a 
strong slate of candidates in each of Taipei County's three 
electoral sub-districts.  The Pan-Green, by contrast, has 
nominated aggressively in Taipei County, hoping to get closer 
to their goal of a legislative majority.  With successful 
peipiao vote-distribution, they might be able to take an 
extra seat, but it seems more likely that the more 
disciplined Pan-Blue will take an additional seat or two, 
shifting the balance in Taipei county from its current 14-13 
in favor of Pan-Green to 14-14 or even 13-15.  End Summary. 
 
Taipei County: The Big Prize 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Taipei County (pop. 3,689,664) is a sprawling northern 
Taiwan district encircling Taipei City.  It is the most 
populous county in Taiwan (its population also significantly 
exceeds Taipei City's), and has therefore been divided into 
three sub-districts for the purpose of Legislative Yuan (LY) 
representation.  Taipei County elects 28 legislators, fully 
one sixth of the total elected from geographical districts, 
and will be a major focus for every party in the December 11 
elections for control of the LY.  Taipei County, like many 
districts in the north, is traditionally considered Pan-Blue 
territory.  KMT presidential candidate Lien Chan won the 
county by more than six percent in the March election.  The 
Pan-Blue also did well in the 2001 LY elections, in 
percentage terms, beating the Pan-Green by an 11 point 
margin.  However, because the Democratic Progressive Party 
(DPP) distributed votes much more evenly among its 
candidates, the Pan-Green managed to take 14 seats to the 
Pan-Blue's 13.  This year both sides aim to gain seats in 
Taipei County, nominating a total of 19 candidates on the 
Pan-Green side against 18 from the Pan-Blue.  Additionally, 
16 independent and minor party candidates have joined the 
fray. 
 
Party Strategies Reflect Different Strengths 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) These numbers ensure that Taipei County will be hotly 
contested.  Each party has adopted a strategy tailored to its 
particular strengths and weaknesses.  The DPP, for example, 
enjoys more ideological and organizational cohesion than 
other parties, so it will rely on a heavily party-based 
campaign.  Candidates in each electoral district are running 
as a team, always appearing together at rallies and on 
campaign posters.  This helps ensure that all candidates 
enjoy similar levels of name recognition and popularity. 
Loyal voters are then encouraged to split their votes among 
DPP candidates according to a "peipiao" vote distribution 
scheme (see Reftel A for more on peipiao and why a party 
would implement it).  The DPP's expertise with peipiao was 
largely responsible for its good performance in Taipei County 
in the 2001 LY elections. 
 
¶4. (C) The KMT's strategy will focus on helping candidates 
cultivate local connections.  Nominees are selected for and 
assigned to distinct "home territories" in which they build 
their own base of support.  This candidate-centered style, 
which can result in lopsided vote distribution, has been 
blamed for the KMT's disappointing results in the 2001 
elections.  However, KMT Taipei County Vice Chairman Chao 
Jung-sheng said he disagrees with this assessment and 
asserted that he is confident the KMT's local candidate-based 
strategy will prove to be successful in December's election. 
The Pan-Blue's problems in the 2001 election were not 
fundamentally a result of this campaign style, he said, but 
rather came about because there were simply too many 
nominations.  He noted that in Taipei County's first 
sub-district the KMT nominated four candidates in 2001, but 
only took one seat.  This year, they more realistically 
nominated only two candidates, he said, and both would very 
likely be elected. 
¶5. (C) Chao explained that the PFP and KMT leadership 
coordinated their nomination strategy this year.  Results of 
the last two elections were compared to current polls and 
analyzed to determine a maximum number of nominations in each 
sub-district.  These quotas were then divided between the KMT 
and the PFP according to the relative strength of each 
party's candidates.  Chao remarked that with a realistic 
number of nominees, overt peipiao schemes of the sort used by 
the DPP would be unnecessary.  Simply making sure that each 
candidate was assigned a large enough territory in which to 
cultivate support and then making the KMT's organizational 
resources available to all the candidates would "do the work 
of peipiao for us." 
 
Sub-District One: A Crowded Field on Both Sides 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
¶6. (C) Taipei County's First Sub-District is its smallest. 
Located in the urban southwestern portion of the county, this 
sub-district is roughly centered along the main 
transportation links from Taipei City to the western and 
southern parts of the island.  It includes the cities of 
Panchiao, Shulin and Tucheng and the towns of Sanhsia and 
Yingko, and is represented by eight LY seats, currently split 
5-3 for the Pan-Green.  The KMT's two nominees are Lee 
Chia-chin, an incumbent, and Lin Hung-chih, the current Mayor 
of Panchiao.  As part of their agreement with the KMT, the 
PFP also nominated two candidates: the incumbent Chou Hsi-wei 
and a former Panchiao Mayor, Wu Ching-chih.  Additionally, 
the New Party (NP) nominated a former LY member, Lee 
Sheng-feng, who will officially run under the KMT banner but 
who is otherwise not connected to the main KMT campaign, and 
therefore was not counted against their quota in the KMT-PFP 
nominations agreement.  Most observers are dismissive of his 
chances for election.  Vice Chairman Chao said he believes 
both KMT and both PFP nominees can get elected, but KMT 
Organization and Development Committee Chairman Liao Fung-te 
said that the PFP's Wu was not likely to win unless the PFP 
managed to divert some votes to him from the more popular 
Chou.  PFP County Chairman Wang An-pang, however, complained 
that the real problem was that the KMT was "unwilling to 
share its votes," and was instead trying to "steal PFP 
supporters by playing up the inevitability of a merger" 
between the two parties. 
 
¶7. (C) On the Pan-Green side, the DPP nominated three of its 
incumbents (Lee Wen-chung, Chang Ching-fang, and Wang 
Shu-hui) as well as Chuang Shuo-han, the former Vice Chairman 
of the Overseas Chinese Affairs Commission.  The DPP's fourth 
incumbent did not stand for reelection because he is 
currently serving a sentence for corruption in a Hualien 
prison.  The TSU nominated its incumbent, Liao Pen-yen, as 
well as a County Councilmember, Hsiao Kuan-yu.  The 
nomination of six candidates in an eight seat sub-district 
which has historically favored the other side by a few points 
has put the Pan-Green candidates in a difficult position. 
The DPP candidates have agreed that a peipiao scheme will 
need to be implemented but have not been able to settle on 
the details, because as it stands the vote might be spread 
too thinly for all of them to be elected.  The DPP's Lee told 
newspapers that in the end, weaker candidates might need to 
be sacrificed to save the rest.  Wang said she was afraid her 
votes would be "shared away" from her, because the other 
candidates assume she can rely on taking one of Taipei 
County's two seats set aside for women.  Although she is the 
only woman running in sub-district one, the other 
sub-districts have several women who will likely do well, she 
said, meaning she cannot take her seat for granted.  DPP 
County Chairman Chang Chi-chang said there were enough votes 
for all four DPP candidates, and that it was the TSU that had 
over-nominated.  He said that only the DPP newcomer Chuang 
was in any danger: he would be competing with the TSU 
incumbent for the last seat. 
 
Sub-District Two: Pan-Green Overnomination? 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C) Taipei County's Second Sub-District encompasses the 
northern coastal portion of the county, including the cities 
of Sanchung, Hsinchuang and Luchou, the port town of Tamsui, 
and a number of smaller townships.  In 2001, its ten seats 
split 5-5, but this year a new seat has been added to reflect 
the area's growing population.  The KMT has nominated two of 
its three incumbents (Tsai Chia-fu and Lee Hsien-jung) as 
well as Wu Yu-sheng (a former spokesman for Taipei Mayor Ma 
Ying-jeou) and Chu Chun-hsiao (a former National Assembly 
member and son of a former Sanchung Mayor).  The PFP 
nominated its two incumbents, Lee Hung-chun and Ko Shu-min. 
PFP Chairman Wang said he is confident all six Pan-Blue 
nominees can win election.  KMT Vice Chairman Chao said that 
both PFP seats are safe, and that only Chu is in any danger. 
He was quick to point out that the reason for Chu's 
disappointing lack of support is that he joined the campaign 
late, after having been asked by the party leadership to run. 
 Chao explained that Chu was selected for his connections 
with Sanchung, where the KMT had no other candidates running. 
 As voters become more familiar with Chu, he said, his level 
of support should rise quickly.  KMT Committee Chairman Liao 
had a similar assessment, but added that the party would look 
for ways to have voters outside Chu's region boost his 
support. 
 
¶9. (C) On the Pan-Green side, the DPP nominated six 
candidates (incumbents Chen Ching-chun and Chen Mao-nan, 
County Councilmembers Tsai Lai-wang and Lin Shu-fen, former 
Luchou Mayor Huang Chien-hui, and Wu Ping-jui, the former 
secretary to Presidential Office SecGen Su Chen-chang).  The 
 
SIPDIS 
TSU nominated the incumbent Hsu Teng-kung as well as former 
 
SIPDIS 
DPP Organizational Affairs Director Liu I-te.  DPP Chairman 
Chang acknowledged that with so many candidates, the 
Pan-Green is "under a lot of pressure."  He explained the 
DPP's decision to nominate six candidates was justified by 
the fact that "last time we got enough votes for five, but 
only nominated four."  This time, he said, "because the 
second district got a new seat, we decided to nominate six." 
Furthermore, he added, this sub-district was meant to serve 
as an experiment, to test the theory that nominating more 
candidates will attract more voters, so that even if all of 
them do not win, the DPP will be able to take a greater share 
of the proportional representation seats.  With four of the 
six DPP candidates being newcomers, Chang explained that the 
DPP's "team campaign" strategy is key to ensuring that all of 
them get elected.  He added that peipiao arrangements had 
already been made.  Voters will likely be asked to give their 
votes to candidates based on the month of their birth.  With 
each candidate assigned two months, the result should be an 
equal distribution among all candidates, Chang claimed, 
ensuring all six get elected. 
 
¶10. (C) TSU candidate Hsu Teng-kung offered a different 
assessment of the electoral landscape: "The DPP nominated too 
many candidates.  At best five can win."  He partially blamed 
this overcrowding for his own campaign's problems, but said 
that the biggest reason for his disappointing performance in 
recent polls was his late start.  Until August, he explained, 
the TSU had only planned to nominate Liu, but then party 
founder Lee Teng-hui felt they should be more ambitious and 
try to gain seats in the LY.  "Lee came and personally asked 
me to run again," he said. 
 
Sub-District Three: Blue Territory 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶11. (C) Taipei County's Third Sub-District, which includes 
the more rural south and southeast parts of the county as 
well as the cities of Chungho, Yungho, Hsintien and Hsichih, 
has nine seats and has traditionally been the Bluest part of 
the county.  In 2001, the Pan-Blue sent six candidates to the 
LY against the DPP's three, explained KMT Chairman Chao. 
However, KMT maverick Chao Yung-ching joined the DPP after 
getting elected, bringing the current balance to 5-4.  This 
time, the KMT and PFP each nominated three candidates to 
attempt to reclaim the lost seat.  Additionally, the NP has 
nominated popular former TV talk show host Joanna Lei (Chien) 
under the KMT banner.  KMT Vice Chairman Chao explained that 
the KMT was using the same regional strategy as in the other 
sub-districts, nominating candidates from different parts of 
the sub-district to allow each territory within which to 
build support.  The two incumbents Hung Hsiu-chu and Lo 
Ming-tsai are from Yonghe and Hsintian, he said, and former 
National Assembly member Chang Ching-chung is from Chungho. 
All three, in addition to the NP's Lei, are doing well, Chao 
said, but Chang's newcomer status made his election less 
certain.  The PFP nominated incumbents Lee Ching-hua, Lin 
Te-fu and Cheng San-yuan, all three of whom are on track for 
reelection, according to PFP Chairman Wang as well as recent 
newspaper polls. 
 
¶12. (C) The DPP hopes to hold onto its four seats in the 
third sub-district, said DPP Chairman Chang, so it has 
nominated three of its incumbents (Chao, Chou Ya-shu, and 
Chen Chao-lung) as well as County Councilmember Shen Fa-hui. 
Chang explained that although the DPP's historical share of 
the vote in sub-district three is only enough to support 
three candidates, ex-KMT legislator Chao should be able to 
bring some of his supporters with him.  With "a little more 
effort," he said, and a good peipiao scheme, the DPP should 
be able to get all four elected.  The peipiao arrangements, 
as in sub-district two, would be based on the month of a 
voter's birth, with each of the four candidates getting three 
months.  The TSU, which won no seats in 2001, nominated 
County Councilmember Chen Yong-fu.  KMT Committee Chairman 
Liao said the TSU's nomination of Chen only threatened the 
reelection of the DPP's Chen, and if the two split the vote, 
it might make room for the KMT's Chang and throw the 
sub-district balance to 7-2 in the Pan-Blue's favor.  DPP 
Chairman Chang offered a different assessment, saying that 
the TSU's Chen was attracting voters from a different base 
and not "stealing them" from the DPP.  The DPP and the TSU, 
he noted, had a tacit understanding that they would work 
together to take a majority in the LY this year. 
 
Independents - Impact Will Be Indirect 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶13. (C) A total of sixteen independent and minor party 
candidates registered in Taipei County's three sub-districts. 
 Few observers think any of them have a serious chance at 
election.  According to DPP County Chairman Chang, except for 
mavericks from the major parties who run on their own 
nomination (such as ex-KMT now-DPP incumbent Chao 
Yung-ching), no independent has ever won in Taipei County. 
That said, there are a few independent candidates who might 
have a significant impact on the election.  In the first 
sub-district, the infamous leader of the "Tientaomeng" gang, 
Lo Fu-chu nominated himself for election, but recently said 
he was dropping out because of his mother's objection to his 
involvement in politics.  A more credible reason offered by 
KMT Committee Chairman Liao is that Lo wants to help his son, 
KMT candidate Lo Ming-tsai, win election in the third 
sub-district.  DPP Chairman Chang noted that given "Lo 
Fu-chu's special connections," Lo Ming-tsai's reelection was 
all but assured.  In the second sub-district, the Pan-Green's 
over-nomination worries could be further complicated by 
Nonpartisan Solidarity Union incumbent Cheng Yu-chen.  Cheng 
won election in 2001 as a DPP candidate but was expelled from 
the party after a scandal over his leaving his wife to live 
with a TV anchorwoman mistress in Los Angeles.  Nobody AIT 
spoke with gave Cheng any chance of winning reelection in the 
wake of the scandal, but KMT Vice Chairman Chao said he was 
hopeful Cheng would skim off some DPP's supporters. 
 
Comment: The Pan-Green's Gamble 
------------------------------- 
 
¶14. (C) The Pan-Blue nominations in Taipei County were 
tightly controlled and coordinated between the two parties, 
resulting in a strong slate of candidates in each 
sub-district, nearly all of whom stand a good chance of being 
elected.  The Pan-Blue seems to have learned its lesson from 
past elections, at least in Taipei County, and might be 
rewarded for its newfound discipline.  The Pan-Green 
nominations, by contrast, seem aggressive to the point of 
recklessness.  DPP County Chairman Chang justified the 
strategy by explaining that there is no more territory to be 
won in southern districts that form the Pan-Green heartland, 
so the only way to capture a majority in the LY is by 
aggressively taking seats in the north in traditional 
Pan-Blue strongholds like Taipei County.  The DPP's famous 
peipiao techniques will be put to the test in trying to 
assure all six of its nominees (including four newcomers) in 
sub-district two, for example, win election.  The Pan-Green 
looks more likely than not to lose one seat each in the first 
and third sub-districts to the more organized Pan-Blue and 
may well ask one candidate in each district to cease 
campaigning.  In the second district, both sides will likely 
hold onto their five seats, and it will be a close fight for 
the new seat added this year.  Therefore it seems the best 
the Pan-Green can hope for (barring any disastrous blunders 
on the Pan-Blue side before December 11) is to fight off the 
Pan-Blue in sub-districts one and three and take the new seat 
in sub-district two, shifting the balance one seat further 
into their favor at 15-13.  Far more likely is a result of 
14-14 or 13-15, driving them one or two seats further from 
their goal of a majority in the LY.  The worst case scenario 
for the Pan-Green would be a loss in both sub-districts one 
and three and to give up the extra seat in sub-district two 
to the Pan-Blue, shifting the balance to 12-16.  End Comment. 
PAAL