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131842Z Nov 04

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HALIFAX 000255 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR WHA/CAN 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECON CA
SUBJECT: PROVINCIAL POLITICS IN ATLANTIC CANADA:  WHO'S IN AND WHO'S 
OUT 
 
 
¶1.  INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY:  This fall has proven to be a busy 
season for provincial politicians in Atlantic Canada.  Minority 
governments, shortened legislative sessions, by-elections, and 
party leadership changes have combined to create more attention 
than usual on what's going on both inside and outside the four 
legislatures.  Accordingly, we have taken a snapshot look at 
each of the provinces showing the situation in each with a few 
predictions on what's in store for the region. 
 
¶2.  Both New Brunswick and Nova Scotia are facing minority 
governments suggesting a decline in the Conservative Party's 
sway in these provinces.  In N.B. the Liberals are the strongest 
potential challenger, while in N.S. it is the NDP.  In the short 
term neither of these provincial governments seem likely to be 
overturned, but in the longer term observers should not be 
surprised to see electoral change.  In Newfoundland and Labrador 
and Prince Edward Island the Conservative leadership is 
experiencing more popularity.  Only in Newfoundland could the 
popularity be fleeting, pending the Premier's success in 
negotiations with Ottawa. Thus it will be interesting to watch 
whether the potential fall of the Conservatives in N.B. or N.S. 
will shake the popularity of the Conservatives in PEI and 
Newfoundland and Labrador.  END INTRODUCTION/SUMMARY 
 
New Brunswick 
------------- 
 
¶3.  Lt. Governor Herminigilde Chiasson (Appointed for a five 
year term on August 26, 2003) 
 
Premier: Bernard Lord (Party: Progressive Conservatives) 
Most recent election:  June 9, 2003 
Current Party Standings in the House (55 seats in total) 
        Progressive Conservatives 28 
                (Leader: Bernard Lord since October 18, 1997 
        Liberals 26 
                (Leader: Shawn Graham since May 11, 2002 
        New Democrats 1 
                (Leader:  Elizabeth Weir since 1988) 
 
Election history:  Bernard Lord and his Conservative party have 
ruled New Brunswick since they overturned the incumbent Liberals 
in the June 1999 election. 
 
Current political scene:  While portrayed as a rising star on 
the national political stage, Conservative Premier Bernard Lord 
is suffering from popularity problems with the folks at home. 
Lord's tough policy decisions on health care reform have created 
widespread unrest throughout the province and have stirred up 
serious dissention in the party ranks over how the Premier 
handled contentious issues such as hospital bed closures and 
downgrading hospitals. Helping to fan the flames of discontent 
is Liberal Opposition leader Shawn Graham, now openly talking of 
bringing down the government in the next legislative session of 
the house. 
 
The possibility of an eventual non-confidence motion has led 
Graham to institute a series of personnel changes in his caucus 
office including the addition of a new chief of staff whose 
principal job will be to prepare the party for battle with the 
Conservatives.  However, the Liberals are still struggling with 
a credibility problem among the electorate.  Hesitancy is thus 
the play of the day, with some Liberal rank and file calling for 
restraint in order to allow the party to build up more momentum 
before forcing a new election. The NDP is similarly reluctant to 
bring down the current government. The current NDP leader 
Elizabeth Weir, who holds the party's only seat in the house, 
recently announced her resignation as leader, although there is 
no date yet for a convention to pick a replacement.  All things 
considered, this will make the next New Brunswick legislative 
session the one to watch in the region. 
 
Nova Scotia 
----------- 
 
¶4.  Lt. Governor: Myra A. Freeman (Appointed for a five year 
term on April 28, 2000) 
Premier: John F. Hamm (Party: Progressive Conservatives-PC) 
Most Recent Election: August 5, 2003 
Party Standings in the House (52 seats in total) 
        Progressive Conservatives 25 
                (Leader:  John F. Hamm since October 28, 1995) 
        Liberals 12 
(Leader:  Francis Mackenzie since October 23, 2004) 
        New Democrats 15 
                (Leader:  Darrell Dexter since June 4, 2001) 
 
Election History:  John Hamm and his Conservatives have been 
governing Nova Scotia since July 1999 when they defeated the 
incumbent Liberal government by a wide majority. 
 
Current political scene:  Like his counterpart in New Brunswick, 
Nova Scotia premier John Hamm is in a precarious minority 
situation, although the opposition is split with the NDP forming 
the official opposition and the Liberals in third place.  The 
NDP has done very well in the province, offering a cooperative 
attitude in working with the incumbent Tories to keep the 
government afloat. 
 
With the NDP viewed as a credible alternative to the ruling 
Tories, the Liberals appear destined to remain in third place. 
The Liberals have been plagued with weak leadership and this 
does not seem to have changed with the recent newly elected 
leader, Francis MacKenzie. MacKenzie does not have a seat in the 
legislature and will likely have to wait until another general 
election before he has a chance to enter the house.  Thus it 
seems that John Hamm's popularity may be slipping and this will 
likely work in favor of the NDP leaving the Liberals to cool 
their heels for the time being. 
 
Newfoundland-Labrador 
--------------------- 
 
¶5.  Lt. Governor Edward M. Roberts (Appointed for a five year 
term on November 1, 2002) 
Premier: Danny Williams (Party: Progressive Conservatives-PC) 
Most recent election: October 21, 2003 
Party Standings in the House (48 seats in total) 
        Conservatives 34 
                (Leader:  Danny Williams since April 7, 2001) 
        Liberals 12 
                (Leader:  Roger Grimes since February 3, 2001) 
        New Democrats 2 
                (Leader:  Jack Harris since November, 1992) 
 
Election History: With their win in the October 2003 provincial 
election, Premier Williams and his Tories upset a 12-year long 
Liberal administration. 
 
Current political scene: Premier Danny Williams recently 
celebrated his first-year anniversary, but he admits that it has 
been a tough year.  After reviewing the province's fiscal 
situation last year, Williams said he had no choice but to 
institute tough measures to bring the province's fiscal 
situation under control and enduring a contentious public sector 
strike.  While fiscal watchers applauded the government's tough 
stance, the measures left the government shaken.  However, 
Williams has seen a surge in popularity with his firm stance 
with the federal government on a revenue sharing agreement on 
offshore energy projects. Should Williams get his way in this 
current dispute with Ottawa, it would be the crowning 
achievement for Williams and one that even opposition leader 
Roger Grimes admits he would applaud. Due to the popularity of 
Williams' position on revenue sharing, Grimes and the two NDP 
members have been forced to instead zero in on Williams' 
personal style of one-man showmanship, hence their new name for 
the Premier, the "Daniator." 
 
Prince Edward Island 
--------------------- 
¶6.  Lt. Governor J. Lionce Bernard (Appointed for a five year 
term on May 28, 2001) 
Premier: Patrick George Binns (Party: Progressive Conservatives) 
Most Recent Election: September 29, 2003 
Party Standings in the House (27 seats in total) 
        Conservatives 
                (Leader: Patrick George Binns since May 4, 1996 
        Liberals 
                (Leader:  Robert Ghiz since April 5, 2003) 
 
Election History:  Pat Binns and the Conservatives have been 
governing Prince Edward Island since 1996 when they overturned a 
10-year incumbent Liberal government 
 
Current political scene: Premier Pat Binns is enjoying continued 
support from Islanders, making it difficult for Liberal 
Opposition Leader Robert Ghiz to make many inroads.  In fact, 
pundits believe that it would take the eventual retirement of 
the popular Binns to open up any opportunities for Ghiz. As for 
the NDP, the party has never elected a member either federally 
or provincially, and still appears unprepared to make any 
headway. 
 
¶7.  COMMENT:  In the last decade the Atlantic Provinces have 
borne witness to the almost universal defeat in provincial 
legislatures of the previously dominant Liberal Party in favor 
of the Progressive Conservatives.  At the federal level, 
however, the story has been different: in the June 2004 election 
the Liberals took a significant majority of the region's seats 
in the Parliament in Ottawa.   The question to ask while 
watching the Atlantic Provinces in future will be whether this 
"spell" of Conservatism was simply an attempt on the part of 
Atlantic Canadians to express their dissatisfaction with the 
perceived financial irresponsibility of provincial Liberal 
governments or whether this is indicative of a general shift in 
ideology. 
 
¶8.  The decline in the popularity of the Conservatives in Nova 
Scotia and New Brunswick indicates that the former may be the 
more accurate analysis, however the situation is less clear in 
the other two Atlantic Provinces.  If the past few years were 
just a warning, then watchers will likely see a return to the 
center following a restructuring and redefinition of the 
alternative parties.  As mentioned, the province to watch will 
be New Brunswick, both because the politics are interesting in 
themselves, but also because N.B. could be the bellwether for a 
more general trend away from the Tories in provincial 
legislatures. 
END COMMENT 
 
HILL