P 301434Z NOV 04
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5104
INFO ISLAMIC COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

S E C R E T  BEIRUT 004941 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2014 
TAGS: PGOV KISL PTER LE SY
SUBJECT: LEBANON: WHAT'S WRONG WITH AMAL? 
 
REF: BEIRUT 4587 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Christopher W. Murray for reason 1.4 (d). 
 
¶1.  (S)  Summary and comment:  The Amal Movement is unable to 
keep up with Hizballah's popularity because Amal is seen as 
disorganized, corrupt, and based too much on party leader 
Nabih Berri.  Referred to as "the thieves," Amal's leaders 
maintain party support through a patronage system that uses 
government and international aid funds to pay supporters. 
Amal enjoys little real popularity; many of its supporters 
are more anti-Hizballah than pro-Amal.  Berri is unwilling to 
reform Amal and has not prepared the party for the future, 
which suggests future Amal electoral losses to Hizballah. 
End summary and comment. 
 
------------------------ 
WHERE DOES THE MONEY GO? 
------------------------ 
 
¶2.  (S)  The Amal Movement, Hizballah's rival for leadership 
of Lebanon's Shia community, is corrupt and disorganized 
under the leadership of Parliamentary Speaker Nabih Berri, 
according to Shia politicians and citizens whom we 
interviewed.  None are supporters of Hizballah.  Amal's 
leadership is referred to as "the thieves," according to 
Professor Nizar Hamzeh of the American University of Beirut. 
Berri delivers social services and development aid to 
predominantly-Shia southern Lebanon.  But the way he does it 
("wheeling, dealing, and stealing," according to a relative 
of Amal's founder Imam Musa Sadr) gives him a poor 
reputation.  While Hizballah uses Iranian money and donations 
to fund its social services, Berri simply redirects Lebanese 
taxpayer money to his supporters. 
 
¶3.  (S)  Much of the GOL's reconstruction and development 
contracts in southern Lebanon are awarded to Berri associates 
who hire Berri supporters, according to Hamzeh.  Berri 
directs government tobacco subsidies to Lebanon's inefficient 
tobacco farms in his political base along the southern 
Lebanese coast, according to Ahmad Assaad, an independent 
Shia politician.  Assaad added that the GOL-funded Council of 
the South rebuilds homes in southern Lebanon destroyed by 
Israeli bombing and shelling, but Amal supporters receive far 
more compensation for their homes than Hizballah supporters 
do.  Abdallah Bitar, the pro-Amal President of the Nabatiyeh 
Merchants' Association, told econoff that municipalities that 
vote for Hizballah get little GOL development aid.  Nabatiyeh 
residents expressed concern to econoff that recent Hizballah 
gains on the municipal council will cost their town 
infrastructure aid. 
 
¶4.  (C)  Yasser Atwi, the English language coordinator at an 
Amal-run school, provided econoff with an example of Amal 
charity work that is mostly funded by taxpayer money.  Atwi 
said that Amal built the school with party money and private 
donations, but it does not pay for the operating costs. 
Tuition in the Tyre school is subsidized by the GOL at USD 
600 per student; the parents pay USD 400.  The school, though 
run by Amal party loyalists, is effectively funded by the GOL 
and tuition payments. 
 
¶5.  (C)  Berri has been successful in obtaining international 
development aid, but many Shia doubt if it goes to the 
Lebanese people.  Hamzeh told us that a center for 
handicapped and retarded children is closed for most of the 
year but opened when the center's Italian donors visit. 
Hamzeh said that there is a director and staff who collect 
paychecks, but they are Berri associates who do not normally 
show up for work. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
BERRI, MAN OF THE PEOPLE... HIS PEOPLE 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (S)  Our contacts blame much of Amal's stagnation on 
Berri.  One who personally knows Berri described him as 
temperamental, easily angered, and egotistical.  Berri, 
unlike Hizballah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, is not 
accessible to his subordinates and is regarded as aloof. 
Mohammad Baydun, a member of the Chamber of Deputies from 
Tyre and former Amal member, told econoff that Berri tries to 
make all decisions himself, but he makes those decisions in 
the interests of his family members' finances, not for the 
sake of the party.  Bitar said that Berri's inner circle acts 
as his gatekeepers; they use their access to information to 
increase their personal wealth.  Berri acknowledged Amal's 
shortcomings in his conversations with Bitar, but he appeared 
too old and tired to do anything about it.  "He didn't care," 
said Bitar. 
 
¶7.  (S)  Berri has become wealthy and owns a large estate 
outside of Sidon.  No one knows how Berri became wealthy, but 
his practice of taking a cut of investments in southern 
Lebanon is one source of income.  Berri insists on becoming a 
partner in any new venture in southern Lebanon without 
investing any of his own capital, according to southern 
Lebanese businessmen (reftel).  Assaad confirmed this 
practice, saying that Berri scares off investment in the 
economically depressed south by demanding a share and the 
hiring of his cronies. 
 
¶8.  (S)  While Berri's wealth has increased, Amal appears to 
be having difficulty raising money.  Amal is losing members 
to Hizballah, according to Hamzeh.  Hamzeh said that Amal's 
street fundraising is also drying up.  More Shia imams are 
directing charity money to Hizballah projects, according to 
Baydun.  Wealthy Lebanese Shia expatriates in Africa are no 
longer sending donations to Amal because they do not trust 
Amal leaders to spend the money on the people, according to 
Baydun. 
 
¶9.  (C)  Iran is providing some funds to Amal, though not 
nearly as much as it gives to Hizballah, according to MP Ali 
Osseirran of Sidon, a member of Berri's parliamentary bloc. 
Hamzeh estimated that Iran gives Amal about USD 1 million 
annually. 
 
------------ 
SOFT SUPPORT 
------------ 
 
¶10.  (C)  Amal supporters are often more anti-Hizballah than 
pro-Amal.  Amal supporters Bitar and Atwi cited Hizballah's 
extreme Islamist ideology as the reason they lean to Amal. 
Atwi told econoff that he was afraid of what Hizballah might 
do if it were in charge.  At the same time, moderate, 
pro-Western Shia have admitted to us that Hizballah is clean 
of corruption, efficient at providing social services, and 
considered heroic for forcing the Israeli Army to withdraw 
from southern Lebanon in 2000. 
 
¶11.  (C)  Amal's armed element is no match for Hizballah's 
military wing, according to Professor Timur Goksel, former 
UNIFIL spokesman and political adviser for 24 years.  Goksel 
estimates that there are as many as 5,000 armed members of 
Amal, but they do not train or operate as an organized 
militia.  Goksel reflected on the days when Amal commanded 
15,000 militiamen and how far it has atrophied since then. 
Bitar had a similar view of Amal's armed element, saying that 
the party didn't have a "real militia."  Syria and Iran 
restrain Hizballah from routing Amal by force, according to 
Georges Nasr, political officer in the UN mission to southern 
Lebanon. 
 
-------------- 
A BLEAK FUTURE 
-------------- 
 
¶12.  (S)  As a result of Amal's corruption and Berri's poor 
leadership, Hizballah's political strength is increasing. 
Hamzeh estimates that one-third of Lebanese Shia support 
Amal, while two-thirds support Hizballah.  Hizballah is 
increasing its political power in areas traditionally 
supportive of Amal, like Nabatiyeh and the southern Lebanon 
coast.  Hizballah gained control of Nabatiyeh's municipal 
council in elections this year and is seeking to expand its 
influence over this historically independent town of 30,000 
people.  Bitar told us that Hizballah in the past few months 
has opened 40-50 new offices to provide social services, in 
some cases leasing apartments for office space.  Support for 
Amal is weakening in Sidon and the Jezzine area, according to 
Baydun.  Amal is still strong only in the Tyre area, Baydun 
and Hamzeh told us.  They predict Hizballah will likely make 
gains against Amal in next spring's parliamentary elections. 
 
¶13.  (S)  Baydun believes that Amal's disorganization may 
lead Syria to replace Berri in the Shia-held position of 
Speaker of Parliament.  He cited as evidence the fact that 
Berri has met with Syrian President Bashar Asad only twice in 
the past 15 months, each time for less than a half hour. 
Baydun listed Surete Generale chief Jamil Sayyid among 
Berri's possible Shia successors, following parliamentary 
elections. 
 
¶14.  (C)  There is no heir apparent in Amal, according to 
Hamzeh.  All of the candidates come from Berri's family. 
Hamzeh said Berri's son, Abdallah, was being groomed, but 
Berri had not begun to prepare him until recently.  One of 
our contacts described Abdallah Berri as a "fine young man" 
as a student who has since become corrupt in his party 
involvement.  Berri's wife, Randa, reportedly prefers her 16 
year-old son Basil to Abdallah, but Randa is not well-liked 
in the Shia community. 
 
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COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶15.  (S)  All of the people we talked to were anti-Hizballah, 
and some were pro-Amal.  Amal is near universally derided as 
corrupt to the core, but it is also considered the only 
alternative for moderate, secular Shia.  Ahmad Assaad hopes 
to start a third way for Shia by identifying clean 
politicians who do not have an extremist ideology.  This 
would be a positive development for the well-being and 
stability of southern Lebanon.  End comment. 
 
 
MURRAY