This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 SAO PAULO 001472 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR SOCI BR
SUBJECT: PT AND PSDB GAIN STRENGTH IN BRAZILIAN STATE OF 
SANTA CATARINA 
 
REF: A) BRASILIA 2506 
 
     B) SAO PAULO 1397 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. (U) Polls are leaning towards a PSDB win for mayor in 
Florianopolis, the capital of the southern Brazilian state 
of Santa Catarina.  The PSDB candidate, Dario Berger, has a 
16 point lead over PP/PFL candidate, Chico Assis.  State 
Governor Luiz Henrique da Silva (PMDB) has endorsed Berger 
and other PSDB candidates; however, looking towards the 2006 
elections, the Santa Catarina PMDB will have to choose 
whether these alliances will continue to be advantageous for 
the party.  As elsewhere in Brazil, the PT and PSDB have 
both gained political ground at the municipal level in Santa 
Catarina, acquiring both additional mayorships and city 
council members.  Nevertheless, Santa Catarina traditionally 
has a conservative electorate and the PMDB and PP are still 
the leading parties in the state.  As the October 3 
elections showed in several cities, elected positions tend 
to rotate among political parties, particularly after one 
party has held a position for eight years.  The PT lost 
Blumenau to the PFL after eight years of governing, and the 
PP is likely to lose Florianopolis for the same reason - the 
voters want a change.  End Summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
PSDB OUTSIDER LEADS IN FLORIANOPOLIS MAYORAL RACE 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶2. (U) Brazilian Social Democratic Party (PSDB) candidate 
Dario Berger continues to lead in the polls for the mayoral 
election of Santa Catarina state capital Florianopolis. 
Berger won 35 percent of the vote in the October 3 first 
round and now faces conservative Progressive Party (PP) 
candidate Chico Assis, in the second round runoff on October 
¶31.  A recent poll shows Berger leading 47-31 percent. 
Despite Berger's big lead, political commentators have not 
called the race yet, in part because Berger, who was mayor 
of the neighboring city Sao Jose for the past eight years, 
is seen both as something of a carpetbagger and a fresh face 
who might be able to energize the city.  Some 60 percent of 
Florianopolis's population is not originally from the city, 
and therefore purportedly not averse to voting for an 
"outsider" candidate.  Berger has also picked-up the support 
of Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) Governor Luiz 
Henrique da Silva, and some of the smaller parties. 
 
¶4. (U) Chico Assis is strongly associated with incumbent 
mayor Angela Amin (PP), who after eight years in power still 
has 72 percent approval ratings.  The Liberal Front Party 
(PFL) and Democratic Labor Party (PDT) are also supporting 
Assis.  The Workers' Party (PT) declared that it will not 
support either candidate, and instead is urging voters to 
leave their ballots blank.  In the past it has been 
difficult for incumbents or their handpicked successors to 
win election in Florianopolis.  Assis will face an uphill 
battle in the last two weeks of the campaign. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
PMDB STRONG, BUT PT AND PSDB ARE BIG WINNERS 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) As elsewhere in Brazil, the amorphous/centrist PMDB 
continues to hold the most city halls in Santa Catarina with 
115, up one from 2000.  The party joined PSDB-led coalitions 
in the commercial centers of Joinville and Sao Jose and is 
now supporting the PSDB candidate in Florianopolis.  That 
support from the PMDB likely contributed to the success that 
the PSDB enjoyed in the first round.  The PSDB increased the 
number of city halls it controls from 19 to 25.  However, as 
a political editor of the "Diario Catarinense", the state's 
main newspaper, noted, the party's growth has been very 
localized within Santa Catarina, and it is not yet a 
statewide force.  One of the party's most significant 
strongholds is Joinville, where the PSDB candidate, Marco 
Tebaldi, was reelected in the first round.  Tebaldi served 
as Luiz Henrique's vice-mayor in Joinville before Luiz 
Henrique was elected governor in 2002.  The Governor 
reportedly invested a great deal of political capital in 
Tebaldi's re-election instead of running a PMDB candidate. 
 
¶6. (U) Also reflecting the nationwide trend, President 
Lula's PT gained the most numerically in Santa Catarina this 
year, increasing its mayorships from 13 to 24.  The PT has 
enjoyed a steady growth in Santa Catarina, going from seven 
city halls in 1996 to 13 in 2000.  The PT's stronghold is in 
the poorer western region of the state, populated mainly by 
small farmers.  The PT maintains strong ties with the 
Catholic Church and the Landless Movement (MST) in that 
region.  The PT has the largest caucus in the state 
legislature, with nine of the 40 seats. 
 
¶7. (U) The conservative PP and PFL parties each lost city 
halls in Santa Catarina on October 3.  The PP went from 
running 73 to 70, while the PFL decreased from 58 to 43. 
The PFL's power is concentrated in the center of the state, 
dominated by large rural estates. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
THE 2006 ELECTIONS BOUND TO BE HIGHLY CONTESTED 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶8. (SBU) In this month's elections, incumbent PMDB Governor 
Luiz Henrique formed coalitions, which cut across the lines 
of his party's alliances at the national level and in other 
southern states.  (Note: at the national level, the PMDB is 
part of Lula's PT-led coalition, while the PSDB and PFL lead 
the opposition bloc. End Note.)  Most significantly, he has 
strongly backed PSDB candidates in cities where the PMDB did 
not have its own candidates in the race.  A member of the 
PMDB state directorate told Poloff that there is dissent 
among the party leadership over the Governor's alliances. 
She said that many party members feel that Luis Henrique has 
gotten too close to the PSDB, noting that the party failed 
to even run candidates in key cities like Florianopolis and 
Joinville.  In many of the state's western municipalities, 
the PMDB shares power with the PT, i.e., PT mayors with PMDB 
vice-mayors or vice versa. 
 
¶9. (SBU) State legislature caucus leaders from both the PT 
and PSDB recognize that Luis Henrique's alliances are purely 
of convenience.  PT State Deputy Pedro Baldissera noted that 
the PMDB only forms coalitions with the PT in regions where 
the PMDB is weak.  He remarked that the PT would have to 
take a clear political stand, including on whether to 
continue its alliances with the PMDB in the near future.  A 
Diario Catarinense political editor told us the same thing, 
noting that the PT needs to clarify its identity as a party 
and how the party plans to deal with its links to the MST 
and the workers confederation, CUT, as well as to other 
parties. 
 
¶10. (U) The 2006 governor's race is bound to be contentious. 
Luis Henrique plans to run for reelection for the PMDB. 
PSDB State Deputy and Caucus Leader Jorginho Mello told us 
that PSDB Senator Leonel Pavan would be the party's 
candidate for governor in 2006.  Political experts speculate 
that incumbent Florianopolis mayor, Angela Amin, will run 
for governor for the PP.  (Note: Amin's husband, Esperidao 
Amin, was governor of Santa Catarina from 1999 until 2003. 
End Note.)  The PT plans to run an as yet unidentified 
candidate.  Potentially complicating the parties' political 
strategizing even further over the next two years, Senator 
Jorge Bornhausen's (PFL) seat will be open in the 2006 
elections, and the powerful senator's intentions have not 
been announced. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶11. (U) Politics in Santa Catarina are multifaceted and full 
of intrigue.  Soon after the 2004 municipal elections wind 
down, political maneuvering in preparation for the 2006 
gubernatorial and senatorial elections will begin.  The 
governor's seat will be highly contested and the PSDB views 
2006 as an opportunity to strengthen its position in the 
state and nationally.  The center-left PSDB and PT parties 
made the most advances in numerical terms in this year's 
municipal contests, while the conservative PP and PFL 
parties, which have traditionally shared political dominance 
in the state with the PMDB, lost several cities in the 
interior of the state.  A PP loss to the PSDB in 
Florianopolis could indicate the beginnings of a shift in 
political power in the state.  However, it is not apparent 
that any clear lessons can be drawn from the outcome of this 
year's municipal elections here, in particular about the 
likely impact on the 2006 gubernatorial and presidential 
elections.  Santa Catarina will likely continue to produce 
politicians of national importance, but due to its small 
population, it will continue to have only limited impact on 
the outcome of national elections.  End Comment. 
 
¶12. (U) This message was coordinated with Embassy Brasilia. 
 
DEL VECCHIO