This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 SANTO DOMINGO 005888 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR INR, WHA/CAR, WHA/EPSC, WHA/USOAS; 
NSC FOR SHANNON AND MADISON;LABOR FOR ILAB; 
USCINCSO ALSO FOR POLAD; TREASURY FOR OASIA-LCARTER 
STATE PASS USTR FOR VARGO, RYCKMAN, MALITO, CRONIN 
USDOC FOR 4322/ITA/MAC/WH/CARIBBEAN BASIN DIVISION 
USDOC FOR 3134/ITA/USFCS/RD/WH; DHS FOR CIS-CARLOS ITURREGUI 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL DR VE CU CH TW
SUBJECT: DOMINICAN POLITICS #7: THE VANISHING LEFT 
 
REF: A. A) SANTO DOMINGO 5740 (NOTAL) B) SANTO DOMINGO 
        5605 
     ¶B. C)SANTO DOMINGO 0794 
     ¶C. D) SANTO DOMINGO 4403 
     ¶D. E) SANTO DOMINGO 4916 
 
¶1. (SBU) This is #7 in our current series on politics in the 
Dominican Republic: 
 
The Vanishing Left 
 
** Despite current economic hardships, Dominicans have shown 
no interest at all in radical political solutions.  This 
year's presidential election emphasized the eclipse of the 
left.  With a total of 23 parties fielding candidates, the 
take of the 3 independent parties of the declared radical 
left fell to less than one-third of one percent of the votes. 
 Dominican political habits have been shaped by long habits 
of accomodation to caudillos, patronage disbursed by the 
three non-ideological major parties, and dreams of the United 
States.  President Fernandez's Dominican Liberation Party, 
founded along Caribbean marxist lines in the 1970's, retains 
little more than a leftist lean in its market-friendly, 
socially conscious party line.** 
 
 
Economic Frustration 
-------------------- 
 
Since mid-2003 Dominicans generally have absorbed the blows 
of rising inflation, peso devaluation, collapsing public 
hospitals, and periodic returns to the age before 
electricity.  Chronic power blackouts this past summer 
sparked public desperation and incidents of tire burning or 
rock throwing in affected neighborhoods, but the unrest in 
the barrios evaporated after the Fernandez inauguration with 
a modest improvement in electricity supply (Ref A).  An 
unexpected rebound of the peso exchange rate since President 
Fernandez's inauguration in August has given the middle class 
hope that vacations and education in the United States might 
again become affordable.  Food prices, though high, have 
leveled off and merchants say they will be lowering prices 
soon.  The new government's revelations of mismanagement and 
corruption in the previous administration make daily 
headlines, as do the prosecution of executives involved in 
the 2003 commercial bank collapse and concerns over a 
perceived "crime wave" (Ref B). 
 
Exit, Hope, and a Jaundiced Eye 
------------------------------- 
 
Yet no radical voices, have recently challenged the economic 
or political systems here, apart from a ridiculous daily 
half-hour radio broadcast of 1950s-style propaganda by a tiny 
communist faction.  Some attribute this passivity to the 
safety valve of illegal emigration via the perilous passage 
to Puerto Rico.  Others cite selective memories of "good 
times" of Fernandez's first administration and hopes that he 
can resuscitate the economy.  And there is visceral 
skepticism toward all politicians and their promises, rooted 
in a chaotic history. 
 
Sporadic Protests Subside 
------------------------- 
 
The continuing socio-economic pressures would appear to offer 
openings for new political forces, as would the impending 
disintegration the of the PRSC, one of the three traditional 
parties.  Potential maverick leaders exist, but they are on 
the margins of the political arena.  Twice during the runup 
to the election, a loose coalition of community activists 
successfully called for national work stoppages to protest 
against economic conditions (Ref C).  Dominican workers 
stayed home for the enforced holidays, regardless of the 
organizers' poorly articulated demands.  This year doctors in 
public hospitals have engaged in almost continuous strikes 
and work stoppages, protesting their low pay and abysmal 
resources to treat patients (Ref D).  With a brief respite 
after Fernandez's inauguration, they resumed their agitation. 
 The public sympathizes, but knows the government is broke. 
 
 
Small Parties - A Slippery Slope 
-------------------------------- 
 
Although small parties abound in the Dominican Republic, none 
has gained prominence in decades.  A few have ambitious, 
serious leaders who are trying to launch moderate political 
projects, such as Trajano Santana of the Independent 
Revolutionary Party (PRI), an offshoot of the mainline PRD 
which ran Santana as an independent candidate this year 
(drawing only 3,994 votes, 0.1% of the total).  Such a 
leader, with skill, luck, and private sector funding, could 
conceivably gain attentionand build a party to fill the 
partial vacuum created by the inert left and the PRSC 
meltdown. 
 
Independent leftist parties sank to a new low of voter 
support in the May 16 presidential election.  Their three 
candidates together drew 10,700 votes, 0.3% of the 3,613,700 
votes cast.  The vote for socialist or communist parties 
continued a long-term decline since 1982, when parties of the 
left tallied 26,731 votes -- 1.5% of the vote.  Since then, 
in national elections, the left's share has remained below 
1%.  Force of the Revolution (FR), which in 1996 aborbed the 
old Dominican Communist Party, and the other two small left 
parties that ran candidates this year failed to attain the 
minimum votes required for continued recognition and public 
funding by the Central Election Board. 
 
The vanishing parties did not lack visible candidates.  FR 
ran Rafael Flores Estrella, a former PRD presidential 
pre-candidate, instead of craggy veteran communist leader 
Narciso Isa Conde.  The New Alternative Party (PNA) for the 
second time put forward party boss Ramon Almanzar, a former 
activist in the "Collective of Popular Organizations," 
organizers of street demonstrations and work stoppages 
against the GODR.  TV talk-show personality Raul Perez Pena 
("Bacho") ran again under his Authentic Democracy Party (PAD) 
banner.  Although the most widely known of the three, Bacho 
received a mere 1,838 votes (and the National Electoral Board 
misspelled his name on the ballots). 
 
Patronage, Not Revolution 
------------------------- 
 
The left's failure to resonate with Dominicans has historical 
precedents.  Groups such as the 14th of June Movement opposed 
the Trujillo dictatorship, sometimes violently, but were 
fighting tyranny and had little exposure to leftist ideas. 
Many of the young guerrillas came from the social and 
economic elite.  Some who continued to commit violence into 
the early 1970s were influenced by Fidel Castro's Cuban 
revolution -- this included military officers who began the 
1965 civil war.  But elected President Joaquin Balaguer tamed 
nearly all of them by handing out positions in government or 
at the Autonomous University of Santo Domingo.  Traditional 
Dominican voters -- rural and poor -- sought to get by with a 
paternalistic leader like Balaguer who promised them public 
jobs, social programs, or personal favors.  Today's urban or 
small-town Dominicans, when pressed by economic woes, tend to 
fall back on this patron-client behavior (after all, Balaguer 
left office only 8 years ago).  They may occasionally yield 
to mob impulses, but they do not dream of overturning the 
system. 
 
Sellout to Centrists 
-------------------- 
 
To get ahead, most small-party leaders suppress their 
ideological preferences and ally with a mainline centrist 
party -- PLD, PRD, or PRSC.  Exploiting a major candidate's 
name recognition, a left-wing group can reap more votes, but 
to the benefit of the mainline partner.  The Dominican 
Workers Party (PTD), allied with the PLD this year, got 
24,714 votes (0.7% of the total), compared with only 6,138 in 
2000 when its leader Jose Gonzalez Espinosa ran independently 
with support from the Communist Workers Party and another 
small left group.  Gonzalez Espinosa and his PTD and five 
other parties that backed President Fernandez are getting 
minor jobs in his administration, with little hope of 
influencing policy.  (As the new executive director of the 
Fund for Promotion of Community Initiatives, Gonzalez 
Espinosa found nearly all his agency's projects paralyzed for 
lack of funds.)  The six parties helped ensure Fernandez a 
first-round victory, pushing his vote percentage from 49 to 
¶57. 
 
Leftist at Home or Abroad? 
--------------------------- 
 
President Fernandez's Dominican Liberation Party, founded 
along Caribbean marxist lines in the 1970's, retains little 
more than a leftist lean in its market-friendly, socially 
conscious party line.  A few of our conservative contacts, 
recalling President Fernandez's reestablishment of diplomatic 
relations with Cuba in 1998, have imagined he will reach out 
to leftist or populist governments abroad, for example those 
in Cuba, Venezuela, or China.  In our view, any such gestures 
would have minimum ideological significance and would be 
intended to make Dominican foreign relations appear more 
diverse, as well as to satisfy a residue of left-leaning PLD 
founders from the 1970s.  But there would be no sea change. 
 
Although Cuba and the Dominican Republic have diplomatic 
relations, the limited exchanges with Cuba -- of medical 
students, athletes, or artists -- take place through NGOs, 
universities or multilateral organizations, not bilaterally 
between the governments.  Two-way trade is miniscule. 
 
As for Venezuela, Santo Domingo needs and seeks good 
relations with Caracas to ensure oil deliveries from its main 
supplier, and to this end Fernandez has drawn on his existing 
friendship with President Chavez in ongoing negotiations (Ref 
E). Slippery operator Miguel Mejia, rumored to have 
connections to many renegade regimes, is a visible godfather 
to this deal and serves Fernandez as a Minister without 
Portfolio.  Fernandez is likely to travel soon to Caracas to 
sign a deal in which Venezuela provides soft financing for 25 
percent of the oil bill.  But Fernandez's background and 
world view are very different from those of Hugo Chavez, 
particularly as regards the United States. 
 
A political rapprochement with China seems unlikely, as it 
could jeopardize Santo Domingo's close relations with Taiwan 
and the substantial assistance from Taipei.  There was a 
brief stir last May during the visit of Dominican congressmen 
to Taipei, when a Taiwanese legislator told the press that 
Senator Ramon Albuquerque (of Mejia's PRD) had commented that 
Fernandez might recognize the mainland.  Albuquerque claimed 
he had been misquoted. 
 
Fernandez's foreign policy, like that of Mejia, so far 
centers on relations with the United States, with some added 
attention to Europe and the Caribbean region as a whole. 
 
¶2. (U) Drafted by Bainbridge Cowell. 
 
¶3. (U) This piece and others in our series can be consulted 
on our classified SIPRNET site 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/santodomingo/  along with 
extensive other material. 
HERTELL