This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

UNCLAS QUITO 002886 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EC
SUBJECT: EMBASSY PUSHING STABILITY MESSAGE HARD 
 
REF: A. QUITO 2874 
 
     ¶B. GUAYAQUIL 1231 
     ¶C. QUITO 2869 
     ¶D. QUITO 2868 
     ¶E. QUITO 2859 
 
¶1.  SUMMARY:  Reftels outline the current political quicksand 
enveloping GoE President Lucio Gutierrez.  Believing further 
instability runs counter to Ecuadorian and U.S. interests, 
the Embassy is immersed in an outreach campaign to bolster 
rank-and-file support for constitutional democracy and the 
country's freely elected leader.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  Four political parties are arrayed against Gutierrez: 
the PSC, ID, MPD, and Pachakutik.  Impeachment proceedings 
began October 28 and may run until year-end.  Although most 
experts doubt the opposition can sum the necessary votes in 
Congress to remove the president, he undoubtedly will emerge 
further weakened (Gutierrez's approval ratings hover around 
10 percent).  Believing such volatility damaging to 
Ecuadorian and U.S. goals, the Embassy has stepped up public 
and private outreach in an effort to buoy the GoE.  We have 
seen some success already, as anti-Gutierrez media play has 
diminished in recent days. 
 
¶3.  Our private contacts are regular and numerous.  During 
this week's round of Andean Free Trade Agreement talks in 
Guayaquil, the Ambassador and Guayaquil CG called on two key 
opposition politicians, Guayaquil Mayor Jaime Nebot and 
Guayas Prefect Nicolas Lapentti. Both hail from the Social 
Christian Party (PSC), whose leader, Leon Febres-Cordero, is 
leading the impeachment crusade (Reftels).  In Quito on 
October 27, the Ambassador talked instability and its side 
effects with Gutierrez.  She discussed the president's 
defense strategy the same day with Minister of Government 
Raul Baca.  Last, in an October 22 working lunch with Defmin 
Nelson Herrera and Joint Forces Chief Admiral Victor Rosero, 
the Ambassador reviewed, amongst other topics, the 
potentially stabilizing role of the military in weak 
democracies like Ecuador (Ref E). 
 
¶4.  The Embassy's PA campaign is equally robust.  From JOs to 
counselors and agency heads, Embassy staff have deployed 
throughout Ecuador, ostensibly to discuss U.S. elections but 
driving home a between-the-lines message:  modern democracies 
change administrations via the ballot box, not the gun barrel 
or the smoke-filled room.  Post's Information Officer gave 
print and radio interviews in Cuenca, Ecuador's third city. 
And in trips to coastal cities Manta and Machala, the 
Ambassador emphasized the USG's firm support for Ecuadorian 
democracy and GoE institutions.  We back our dialog with 
dollars, she clarified, funding projects in Ecuador to 
advance the rule of law, strengthen local governance, and 
augment law enforcement. 
 
¶5.  Consulate General Guayaquil has leveraged the Embassy 
effort with its own outreach campaign.  As three of Ecuador's 
five largest political parties hail from the coast, the 
Consulate is well-placed to advance the stability message. 
Non-Mission USG personnel too have joined the media campaign. 
 USTR's Regina Vargo, leading the U.S. FTA negotiating team, 
has not missed an opportunity to promote Gutierrez's 
commitment to free trade, calling it a boon to Ecuador's 
long-term prosperity. 
 
¶6.  COMMENT:  Gutierrez's survival depends on Gutierrez, of 
course, and Ecuador's democracy on Ecuadorians.  Yet the 
Embassy can employ weapons to help prevent the nation from 
entering another self-inflicted, political death spiral.  We 
walk a fine line between loitering by and "uninvitedly 
involving ourselves in internal Ecuadorian matters" (and face 
criticism for either tack).  But a political meltdown, and 
the real possibility of an accompanying economic collapse, 
make inaction unthinkable.  END COMMENT. 
KENNEY